[h=1]David Jolly Proves GOP Can Win Swing Districts by Opposing Amnesty[/h]
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by Tony Lee 13 Mar 2014, 3:27 AM PDT 23post a comment
[h=2]Establishment Republicans have said that GOP candidates cannot win races in swing districts, especially against strong Democrats, by firmly opposing amnesty.[/h]In what could be a bellwether for November, Republican David Jolly won a special election House race in Florida's 13th congressional district on Tuesday night by doing just that in a district that was not favorable to him. President Barack Obama won it twice and his chief opponent, Alex Sink, the last Florida Democrat to win statewide, won it in her failed gubernatorial campaign in 2010. In addition, when Jolly was trailing in the polls by three points, the Republican establishment started to throw him under the bus the weekend before election night.
As Daniel Horowitz of the Madison Project observed, the "notion that we must support amnesty to remain viable is clearly laid to waste by this victory in a Florida swing district" and " if running as a conservative on the issues, including the issue of immigration, is a pathway to victory in an Obama +4 district, imagine the results in a district Romney carried by 10, 20, or 30 points."
"But don’t expect the wizards of smart within the Republican Party establishment to ever consider that the reality of the immigration issue might be in conflict with their conventional wisdom," he pessimistically wrote. "There is too much money invested in that fallacious premise."
During the campaign, Sink was for amnesty and even said the country needed it so people like her could hire cheap labor.
“Immigration reform is important in our country,” Sink said. “We have a lot of employers over on the beaches that rely upon workers and especially in this high-growth environment, where are you going to get people to work to clean our hotel rooms or do our landscaping? We don’t need to put those employers in a position of hiring undocumented and illegal workers.”
Jolly called Sink's comments "disgusting," and he was also the only candidate of the three (a potential libertarian spoiler got 5% of the vote and failed to tip the race to Sink) in the race who was against amnesty.
“We are a loving and caring nation, but we are also a nation of laws, and it is important that those who have broken the law recognize that," Jolly said at a debate. And he also ran a commercial that declared that he was for "stronger borders. Not amnesty.”
As Breitbart News has reported, despite the efforts of the bipartisan permanent political class to ram through amnesty, two national polls (ABC News-Washington Post, NBC News-Wall Street Journal) in recent weeks have found that Americans are more likely to vote against candidates who support amnesty than for them.
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by Tony Lee 13 Mar 2014, 3:27 AM PDT 23post a comment
[h=2]Establishment Republicans have said that GOP candidates cannot win races in swing districts, especially against strong Democrats, by firmly opposing amnesty.[/h]In what could be a bellwether for November, Republican David Jolly won a special election House race in Florida's 13th congressional district on Tuesday night by doing just that in a district that was not favorable to him. President Barack Obama won it twice and his chief opponent, Alex Sink, the last Florida Democrat to win statewide, won it in her failed gubernatorial campaign in 2010. In addition, when Jolly was trailing in the polls by three points, the Republican establishment started to throw him under the bus the weekend before election night.
As Daniel Horowitz of the Madison Project observed, the "notion that we must support amnesty to remain viable is clearly laid to waste by this victory in a Florida swing district" and " if running as a conservative on the issues, including the issue of immigration, is a pathway to victory in an Obama +4 district, imagine the results in a district Romney carried by 10, 20, or 30 points."
"But don’t expect the wizards of smart within the Republican Party establishment to ever consider that the reality of the immigration issue might be in conflict with their conventional wisdom," he pessimistically wrote. "There is too much money invested in that fallacious premise."
During the campaign, Sink was for amnesty and even said the country needed it so people like her could hire cheap labor.
“Immigration reform is important in our country,” Sink said. “We have a lot of employers over on the beaches that rely upon workers and especially in this high-growth environment, where are you going to get people to work to clean our hotel rooms or do our landscaping? We don’t need to put those employers in a position of hiring undocumented and illegal workers.”
Jolly called Sink's comments "disgusting," and he was also the only candidate of the three (a potential libertarian spoiler got 5% of the vote and failed to tip the race to Sink) in the race who was against amnesty.
“We are a loving and caring nation, but we are also a nation of laws, and it is important that those who have broken the law recognize that," Jolly said at a debate. And he also ran a commercial that declared that he was for "stronger borders. Not amnesty.”
As Breitbart News has reported, despite the efforts of the bipartisan permanent political class to ram through amnesty, two national polls (ABC News-Washington Post, NBC News-Wall Street Journal) in recent weeks have found that Americans are more likely to vote against candidates who support amnesty than for them.
The Corner
The one and only.
Chris Matthews: ‘The Senate Goes’
By Andrew Johnson
March 13, 2014 9:19 AM
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Chris Matthews is already bracing for a disappointing November for Democrats, and he sees little that can be done to change that outcome.
“It’s going to be very hard to hold the Senate — I think the Senate goes,” he said on Morning Joe on Thursday. “I think we heard from the Ghost of Christmas Future this week; they’re going to lose the Senate,” he added, referring to Republican David Jolly’s victory Tuesday in Florida’s special congressional election.
Matthews offered his own campaign advice for Democrats if they want to minimize the damage this fall: Go all-in on scare tactics. He encouraged Democrats to up the ante on various issues, such as framing voter-ID laws as attacks on minorities and pro-life measures as attacks on abortion rights.
The one and only.
Chris Matthews: ‘The Senate Goes’
By Andrew Johnson
March 13, 2014 9:19 AM
Comments 666
Chris Matthews is already bracing for a disappointing November for Democrats, and he sees little that can be done to change that outcome.
“It’s going to be very hard to hold the Senate — I think the Senate goes,” he said on Morning Joe on Thursday. “I think we heard from the Ghost of Christmas Future this week; they’re going to lose the Senate,” he added, referring to Republican David Jolly’s victory Tuesday in Florida’s special congressional election.
Matthews offered his own campaign advice for Democrats if they want to minimize the damage this fall: Go all-in on scare tactics. He encouraged Democrats to up the ante on various issues, such as framing voter-ID laws as attacks on minorities and pro-life measures as attacks on abortion rights.
While Republicans held the congressional seat for four decades until Young's death last year, the district's voters favored Obama in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. The district is 37 percent Republican, 35 percent Democrat and 24 percent independent.
Sink had outspent Jolly by more than 3 to 1 on television advertising, though outside groups aligned with the GOP had narrowed the overall Democratic advantage.
Fox News' John Roberts and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Tonight, one of Nancy Pelosi’s most prized candidates was ultimately brought down because of her unwavering support for ObamaCare, and that should be a loud warning for other Democrats running coast to coast," said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Greg Walden, R-Ore. "Pinellas County voters have made the right choice; David will be a dedicated and thoughtful representative for them in Congress.”
Sink had outspent Jolly by more than 3 to 1 on television advertising, though outside groups aligned with the GOP had narrowed the overall Democratic advantage.
Fox News' John Roberts and The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Tonight, one of Nancy Pelosi’s most prized candidates was ultimately brought down because of her unwavering support for ObamaCare, and that should be a loud warning for other Democrats running coast to coast," said National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Rep. Greg Walden, R-Ore. "Pinellas County voters have made the right choice; David will be a dedicated and thoughtful representative for them in Congress.”
They already got the message.
Top 5 distractions.
Minimum Wage. On Tuesday, President Obama jet-setted to New York City to continue his push against income inequality by shopping at the Gap, a store which recently announced that it would be voluntarily raising its minimum wages. He told the sales associates, “I think the ladies will be impressed by my style sense.”
Climate Change. On Monday night, Democrats took to the floor of the Senate, talking for 15 straight hours about climate change.
War on Poverty. Over the weekend, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said that her anonymous Republican friend had told her that Republicans hate poor children:
War on Women. According to Politico, Democrats are reviving the “war on women” meme that worked so successfully during the 2012 race. “This is a driver,” Rep. Steve Israel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, stated.
The Middle East. Obama’s latest offensive against Israel speaks to his desire to misdirect from domestic issues.
Only difference is the Repubs AND Dems voted to invade Iraq, then once it became a poison apple the Dems jumped off like the plague.
Obama rams Obamacare through with backdoor deals, lying, cheating and bribery...not to mention ramming it through the Senate....now the Dems wanna act like they didn't approve of it from the beginning.
Florida loss exposes Democrats' disarray on Obamacare
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Jolly’s win has many Democrats worried about how to talk about Obamacare. | AP Photo
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By JAKE SHERMAN and BURGESS EVERETT | 3/12/14 9:00 PM EDT Updated: 3/13/14 3:25 PM EDT
Democrats can’t even agree whether Obamacare was the reason for their crushing loss in a Florida special election Tuesday.
Now picture how their messaging plan for the health care law is shaping up for 2014.
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Republican lobbyist David Jolly’s victory over Democrat Alex Sink has many Democrats privately worried and publicly split about how to talk about Obamacare.
(Also on POLITICO: Full health care policy coverage)
A few Democrats are advocating a drastic rhetorical shift to the left, by criticizing their own party for not going far enough when it passed the law in 2010.
Other Democrats plan to sharply criticize the Affordable Care Act when running for re-election.
Many plan to stick to the simple message that Obamacare is flawed and needs to be fixed —a tactic that plainly didn’t work for Sink.
Taken together, the Democratic Party is heading into an already tough election year divided — instead of united — on the very issue Republicans plan to make central to their campaigns.
(Also on POLITICO: Administration: 4.2 million people signed up for Obamacare plans)
The political tug of Obamacare is neatly encapsulated by Rep. Ron Barber, a Democrat who holds a Tucson, Ariz., area seat. Barber said he’s uncomfortable with his party’s health care message, and added that you “can’t, with a straight face, stand up and say this is a perfect bill.” He wishes Democrats would “be willing to be honest about this legislation and to be willing to point out, and not be defensive, and say what’s good about it and say what we are willing to change.
But illustrating the tension, Martha McSally, Barber’s opponent, appeared at a closed House Republican Conference meeting Wednesday, saying she’s “on offense” against Obamacare, and the Florida results prove her race is winnable.
Vulnerable members of the president’s party appeared to run from questions about it Wednesday.
(Also on POLITICO: Who says lobbyists can't win?)
Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) — one of the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbents — twice waved off a reporter’s questions. Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), who will likely face GOP Rep. Cory Gardner in November, said he would prefer to answer a reporter’s question by phone to offer a “coherent” response. But his aides did not later make him available for an interview.
Democrats are concerned the health care law’s approval ratings won’t rebound by the time voters go to the polls in November. Even more significantly, they fear the law’s unpopularity — along with President Barack Obama’s flagging approval ratings — could keep Democrats home in November, according to conversations with several top lawmakers and aides.
Republicans seem to think they’ve struck political gold, but Democrats aren’t even sure how to interpret the loss. A veteran Democratic fundraiser called the loss a “double whammy,” hurting the party with major donors and energizing Republicans. Some senior members of the party say the defeat in a district President Barack Obama won twice means nothing, and Democrats should not fret. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who is likely to have a tight race in November, attributed Sink’s defeat to flood insurance legislation, which played a minor role compared to Jolly’s nearly singular focus on the health care law.
(Florida special election results)
This all comes as Democrats and Republicans are gearing up for a brutal battle for control of Congress this fall. Jolly’s victory over Sink, while not a definitive measure of the political climate, is not a good sign for Obama’s party as voters head to the ballot box in less than eight months. Republicans are expected to make some gains in the midterms, but the results in Florida show Democrats could be facing stiffer headwinds than they thought in protecting their five-seat majority in the Senate and chipping away at Republican control of the House.
“Every off-year election, with the exception of two in our history, has been rough on the president’s party. And last night in Florida was no exception,” said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), who is expected to cruise to victory in his reelection bid this November. “Republicans have decided there’s only one issue. I think they’re wrong — I think they’re going to find that horse won’t cross the finish line.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/...rida-elections-2014-104603.html#ixzz2vwlRjpDU
Letter From Nevada
[h=1]The Man Who
Keeps Harry Reid
Up at Night[/h]By JON RALSTON
March 13, 2014
[h=2]Most Popular[/h]Top Stories, Videos & Photos
- [h=3]Fla. loss exposes Dem ACA disarray[/h]
- [h=3]The man who keeps Harry Reid up at night[/h]
- [h=3]Putin on the couch[/h]
- [h=3]Snowden looms over Pulitzer Prizes[/h]
- [h=3]Jobless deal came down to wire[/h]
Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval is nearly impossible not to like. He has a sunny disposition and seems ever eager to work with Democrats, who have nary a bad word to say about him. He’s highly popular in Nevada, with approval numbers in the mid-60s, and he stays on message as well as anyone in politics.
He is, in a phrase, the anti-Harry Reid.
Which is why the prospect of Sandoval facing off against the occasionally dyspeptic, sharply partisan and manifestly unpopular Senate majority leader in the 2016 U.S. Senate race has some Republicans writing Reid’s political eulogy.
“It would be a wipeout,” said one Nevada insider. “He is 100 percent the perfect candidate against Harry Reid.”
Reid knows this, of course. No one plays the political chessboard like the majority leader; following his moves sometimes feels like watching a real life House of Cards, without the murders. He saw the Sandoval threat coming nearly a decade ago.
Back then, Reid managed to sideline the up-and-coming Sandoval with a federal judgeship. At the time it was considered a masterstroke, a ruthless political killing couched as a bipartisan act. But lifetime appointments don’t always stick.
Sandoval left the bench in 2009 and defeated Reid’s son, Rory, in a race for governor. Now it may be Reid the Elder’s turn as Sandoval could defeat two members of the same family for the two highest offices in the state.
There’s just one question: Does Sandoval even want to run for the U.S. Senate?
***
In more than a quarter century of covering Nevada politics, I’ve never seen another governor who loves the job as much as Sandoval does.“I get up every day looking forward to going to work,” he told me earlier this week. “I made decisions today that affected the economy and tourism, that affected business and housing. I don’t think you can do that from 3,000 miles away.”
Those close to him say he’s not looking for a steppingstone, despite the steady upward trajectory he’s followed from lawmaker to chief gaming regulator, attorney general, federal judge and now governor.
“I’d say there is a 99 percent chance he would not run,” said one Sandoval adviser.
But Reid’s suspicions surely were aroused when the governor went out of his way to recruit state Sen. Mark Hutchison as a candidate for lieutenant governor. The last time a Nevada governor bothered to choose a candidate for the No. 2 spot was in 1986, when Richard Bryan selected Clark County District Attorney Bob Miller; Bryan then ran successfully for the Senate in 1988, leaving the state to Miller.
History does repeat itself. And Harry Reid, he of the near-death electoral experiences, does not want to see that happen. So after failing to recruit a top-flight contender to take on Sandoval, he went to Plan B: electing a Democratic lieutenant governor, one who would prevent Sandoval from leaving at midterm.
Sandoval acknowledges that he recruited Hutchison into the race, but he laments that the media immediately interpreted it as a political move. “I am looking forward four and 10 and 20 years,” he told me. “We need to develop strong leaders in the Republican Party…. He was someone I felt would be a strong leader for the state in the future.”
The near future, perhaps?
Again, Sandoval demurs. “I really love this job, and I feel very fortunate to be able do it,” Sandoval said of the governorship. “It’s not like the U.S. Senate has been my life’s goal. I’ve never said anything about that.”
In that way, the ever-earnest governor, who clearly thinks the political aspects of his job are drudgery, again is the opposite of Reid, who thrives on moving the chess pieces. But despite his Boy Scout mien, Sandoval surely wants to keep his 2016 options open. And Reid must know what anyone with a passable political IQ can foresee: Once Sandoval coasts to re-election in November, the governor’s phone will light up with calls from the likes of Mitch McConnell (if he’s still around), RNC boss Reince Priebus and others, all with a simple message: Run, Brian, run.
That kind of pressure may be hard for Sandoval to resist, especially when early polls likely will show him crushing Reid. The governor, who turns 51 this year, acknowledged to me that he’s been unable to say no when opportunity has knocked several times before. “When I was in the legislature, I didn’t expect to be approached by Gov. (Bob) Miller to sit on the Gaming Commission,” Sandoval recalled. “It never occurred to me as attorney general when I was approached to serve as a federal judge.”
Of course, the person who made that last call, toward the end of 2004, was Harry Reid himself.
In 2009, Sandoval again received some unexpected calls he couldn’t refuse, from Nevada Republicans who were petrified of the prospect of serving up a fatally damaged GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons to voters. So Sandoval left the bench to run for governor, just as he had departed the legislature to become a gaming commissioner and just as he had vacated the attorney general’s office to become a judge. Detect a pattern here?
Can Sandoval resist if another call comes at the end of this year? “Hello, governor, this is Mitch McConnell….”
***
Fear may not be in Reid’s DNA, but he’s smart enough to be concerned about Sandoval, who has in his first three-plus years become a political juggernaut.Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/03/brian-sandoval-harry-reid-104652.html#ixzz2vwwDHQei
[h=1]Dems Panicked about 2014[/h]
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by William Bigelow 16 Mar 2014 466post a comment
[h=2]There is growing panic among Democrats in Congress about the 2014 elections, and it is based on numerous factors that give them serious anxiety. In the Senate, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire just found out that she will be challenged by former Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who has received $600,000 from the Super-Pac American Crossroads, and Democrat Senator Mark Udall of Colorado is now being challenged by Rep. Cory Gardner, a serious threat. In the House, the GOP just won a significant victory in a special election in Florida’s 13[SUP]th[/SUP] district, which Barack Obama won decisively in 2012.[/h]Democrats have abandoned Obama on his appointments for the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division and surgeon general; Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California just lambasted the CIA last week. The most powerful depressant for the Democrats may be Obama’s poll numbers, which are down to 41%. Since World War II, a number lower than 50% spells disaster for the president’s party in mid-term elections.
Further, GOP donors are feeling optimistic about their chances; they have invested roughly $40 million already for 2014 while the Democratic donors have cautiously advanced $17 million. One Democrat even allowed that Barack Obama was “poisonous” to the chances of Democratic candidates. Rep. Joe Garcia of Florida quavered, “I’m a prolific fund-raiser, but I can’t compete with somebody who has got 50-some-odd billion dollars. One hopes the cavalry is coming. One hopes the cavalry is coming.”
Senate Democrats pilloried Jennifer Palmieri, the communications director for the White House and Phil Schiliro, its health care adviser, when the two spoke to them last month about ObamaCare. The senators wanted to know why Organizing for Action (OFA) was not running commercials for the senators that would explain their support for ObamaCare. One source reported of the White House officials, “They did not want to hear about health care enrollment.”
On Wednesday, Rep. Steve Israel, the chairman of the House Democrats campaign group, begged the White House political director, David Simas, to give the Democratic congressmen some help. One of the problems for the congressional Democrats has been that OFA has been sucking up donors’ money and there has been a paucity of support for the congressmen.
ObamaCare has hurt the Democrats so much that one candidate, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, ran an ad stating that she “blew the whistle on the disastrous health care website, calling it ‘stunning ineptitude’ and worked to fix it.”
Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky was blunt, simply stating that Democrats are “getting beat to death.”
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by William Bigelow 16 Mar 2014 466post a comment
[h=2]There is growing panic among Democrats in Congress about the 2014 elections, and it is based on numerous factors that give them serious anxiety. In the Senate, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire just found out that she will be challenged by former Senator Scott Brown of Massachusetts, who has received $600,000 from the Super-Pac American Crossroads, and Democrat Senator Mark Udall of Colorado is now being challenged by Rep. Cory Gardner, a serious threat. In the House, the GOP just won a significant victory in a special election in Florida’s 13[SUP]th[/SUP] district, which Barack Obama won decisively in 2012.[/h]Democrats have abandoned Obama on his appointments for the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division and surgeon general; Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California just lambasted the CIA last week. The most powerful depressant for the Democrats may be Obama’s poll numbers, which are down to 41%. Since World War II, a number lower than 50% spells disaster for the president’s party in mid-term elections.
Further, GOP donors are feeling optimistic about their chances; they have invested roughly $40 million already for 2014 while the Democratic donors have cautiously advanced $17 million. One Democrat even allowed that Barack Obama was “poisonous” to the chances of Democratic candidates. Rep. Joe Garcia of Florida quavered, “I’m a prolific fund-raiser, but I can’t compete with somebody who has got 50-some-odd billion dollars. One hopes the cavalry is coming. One hopes the cavalry is coming.”
Senate Democrats pilloried Jennifer Palmieri, the communications director for the White House and Phil Schiliro, its health care adviser, when the two spoke to them last month about ObamaCare. The senators wanted to know why Organizing for Action (OFA) was not running commercials for the senators that would explain their support for ObamaCare. One source reported of the White House officials, “They did not want to hear about health care enrollment.”
On Wednesday, Rep. Steve Israel, the chairman of the House Democrats campaign group, begged the White House political director, David Simas, to give the Democratic congressmen some help. One of the problems for the congressional Democrats has been that OFA has been sucking up donors’ money and there has been a paucity of support for the congressmen.
ObamaCare has hurt the Democrats so much that one candidate, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, ran an ad stating that she “blew the whistle on the disastrous health care website, calling it ‘stunning ineptitude’ and worked to fix it.”
Rep. John Yarmuth of Kentucky was blunt, simply stating that Democrats are “getting beat to death.”
