L2KA Week 10 (Betting Market-Derived Spreads)

[Loves2kickass]

Someone asked me a few weeks ago if I'd continue posting my betting market-derived game lines. These lines are calculated by using a betting market point value based on how many points a team would be favored versus a league average team on a neutral field, then subtracted/added from their opponent

These aren't power ratings/rankings but rather they are based solely on the betting market. Usually these lines are real close to the actual spread but occasionally you'll see a couple point difference that could be due to several factors, injuries, public perception, etc. For example the Pitt/Clev line below is before the D. Watson news that he's out. Mia & SF tend to blow out weaker opponents at home, etc. The Seattle spread is interesting. I would think the Rams would be favored at home. The only thing I can think of is the market is unsure about the health and effectiveness of Stafford.

Again, these are solely betting market derived and the calculated spreads below are based on a neutral field. Everyone uses a different home field advantage number. I use 1.5 points on average but I also take into account how a team has played at home or on the road this season. I'll be using these to determine my bets. I'll post what I bet, when I make a bet. Use them as you wish or not at all.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore -2.7
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland -1.2
Arizona @ Houston -3.6
LA Chargers -3.9 @ Green Bay
NY Giants @ Washingtom -7.0
Tennessee @ Jacksonville-4.5
Chicago @ Detroit-8.1
LV Raiders @ Miami -9.8
Dallas @ Carolina -12
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco -9.5
Seattle-0.6 @ LA Rams
NY Jets @ Buffalo -6.1
Minnesota @ Denver -0.8
Philadelphia @ Kansas City -1.1

 

[Loves2kickass]

Another example of line value would have been Pitt +4 @ Clev obviously before the D. Watson news. With Cleveland at -1.2 any number above a FG would have been a good value bet on Pitt.

 

[Loves2kickass]

My apologies. I corrected my mistake with the Dall/Car line below.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore -2.7
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland -1.2
Arizona @ Houston -3.6
LA Chargers -3.9 @ Green Bay
NY Giants @ Washingtom -7.0
Tennessee @ Jacksonville-4.5
Chicago @ Detroit-8.1
LV Raiders @ Miami -9.8
Dallas -12 @ Carolina
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco -9.5
Seattle-0.6 @ LA Rams
NY Jets @ Buffalo -6.1
Minnesota @ Denver -0.8
Philadelphia @ Kansas City -1.1

Others that stick out a little early in the week. These are just a few examples of what I see on a Wednesday.

Tennessee +7 seems a tad bit high to me. The market has bet Jacksonville up to a full touchdown favorite while showing -4.5 on a neutral field. I don't give the Jaguars much of a advantage at home but Tennessee is winless on the road.

LV Raiders +13.5, from a opener of -10 in Vegas (The Superbook took the game off the board before the Raiders-Jets game), also seems a bit too high. This has to be due to their QB situation and how well Miami plays at home but even giving the Dolphins a home field advantage of 2.5 the line shows Miami -12.3. With Miami -13.5 the market is indicating a 3.7 point home field advantage the the Phins. If you think that's too high then a play on the Raiders is justified. Who knows, we may see +14 and if I do i may jump on the Raiders.

The 49ers at -12 currently also is a little high but its all determined by how you feel about each team at this point and your home field advantage for San Francisco.

As previously mentioned i believe the Rams +1 should be favored at home versus the Seahawks by about a point. This line is flipped in my opinion but how well Stafford will play is the question.

The Vikings +2.5 may hold some value if the line gets to +3 or higher at Denver. This should be a very interesting game with how well both teams have played recently.

 

[Loves2kickass]

In other mid week news.....

●Higgins will miss his 2nd game for the Bengals
●Giants rookie DeVito will start at QB versus the Commanders
●Bears plan on starting Fields this week versus Detroit
●Bills fire OC Dorsey
●Freiermuth could return for the Steelers this week versus Cleveland

 

[exploited17]

Would that make Raiders and Giants plays then?

 

[Loves2kickass]

The market derived spreads are good, but more basic than using a more in depth analysis which also gives me game totals. I'll post that list of spreads & totals later tonight with a explanation of exactly where the figures/numbers come from, methodology, etc. Other game factors also have to be considered but It provides me with a pretty reliable base for both spreads and totals to compare to the actual lines. You'll see with those, some lines may be different than the basic model above but I believe more reliable.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Here's my more precise betting market game spreads and totals for this week. The methodology is this.

Implied Home Score = League Average Scoring + Home Team Offense GPF (oGPF) – Away Team Defense GPF (dGPF) + 1.25

Implied Away Score = League Average Scoring + Away Team Offense GPF (oGPF) – Home Team Defense GPF (dGPF) - 1.25

I'll build my bets off of this and will post what I bet when I bet.

BALT -5.22, 45.64
CLEV -3.6, 33.24
HOU -6.1, 47.54
LAC -1.5, 44.54
WASH -9.5, 38.94
JAC -7, 40.84
DET -10.7, 47.74
MIA -12, 48.24
DALL -9.5, 43.74
SF -11.9, 41.54
SEA -0.30, 46.34
BUFF -8.6, 36.24
DEN -6.10, 38.14
KC -3.6, 47.24

 

[Loves2kickass]

As you see a lot of spreads and totals are dead on the actual lines, while there's a few that aren't. The ones that aren't can be looked at deeper for a possible bet. For example, injures, suspensions, change of QB, etc. As an example, a side that sticks out to me with just looking at the info above would be Denver, and so on.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Would that make Raiders and Giants plays then?

Here's my more precise betting market game spreads and totals for this week. The methodology is this.

Implied Home Score = League Average Scoring + Home Team Offense GPF (oGPF) – Away Team Defense GPF (dGPF) + 1.25

Implied Away Score = League Average Scoring + Away Team Offense GPF (oGPF) – Home Team Defense GPF (dGPF) - 1.25

I'll build my bets off of this and will post what I bet when I bet.

BALT -5.22, 45.64
CLEV -3.6, 33.24
HOU -6.1, 47.54
LAC -1.5, 44.54
WASH -9.5, 38.94
JAC -7, 40.84
DET -10.7, 47.74
MIA -12, 48.24
DALL -9.5, 43.74
SF -11.9, 41.54
SEA -0.30, 46.34
BUFF -8.6, 36.24
DEN -6.10, 38.14
KC -3.6, 47.24

@exploited17

 

[Loves2kickass]

I can also give final scores based on the above methodology for team total points bets but I'm not sure if they're as accurate. For instance the Thursday night game is as follows. GL

Cincinnati 20.22
Baltimore 25.42
Side: Baltimore -5.20
Game Total: 45.64

 

[Loves2kickass]

I've been burnt this season a few times betting early in the week due to injuries, change of QB etc so I won't bet and post until near the end of the week, closer to game day.