L.A. Chargers vs Houston on 01/11 by boxgames
12
FINAL
32
Game L.A. Chargers
-152
Risking 15.15 to win 10
Handicapper Analysis
+2
Some might be surprised that the Chargers are favored on the road but it is justified. Los Angeles did not defeat a team that is in the playoffs besides its sweep of Denver while losing its five games against current playoff teams so that will be a concern to some but the momentum is important as the Chargers are 8-3 over their last 11 games, losses to Kansas city, Baltimore and Tampa Bay, the last one being the anomaly that was a sandwich game between the Chiefs and Broncos. The defense finished No. 5 in EPA and was top ten against both the run and pass with the offense ranking nine spots better in EPA than the Texans. The Chargers went 10-2 this season as favorite. After opening the season 5-1, the Texans closed 5-6 including bad losses against the Jets and Titans while scoring only two points two games back against Baltimore. Injuries have played a part in the passing game with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell going down with season ending injuries and while Joe Mixon had a solid season running the ball, Houston was just No. 23 in Rushing EPA. The receiving injuries definitely hurt the production of quarterback C.J. Stroud but he looked off from the start and his passer rating finished over 13 points lower than his rookie season. Houston was just one of three playoff teams that has one or fewer wins against top ten rated teams. They were fortunate to play in the worst division in the league where they went 5-1 against three teams that finished No. 23 or worse in overall rating.
