Kojak's Wednesday College Hoops

[Kojak]

Tuesday has brought some excitement with Georgia and despair with Tennessee Martin. If San Diego St. can come through will be 3rd straight winning night but barely. I see some quality plays on Wednesday. I will be travelling so I will post everything now.

UCONN -21.5 - Huskies have been horrible ats on the road but have really excelled at home. This Hurricane team is completely overmatched in this one. I expect Huskies to win by at least 30 as they should be upset losing last 2 on road to Notre Dame and Pittsburgh.(loss)

Colorado -1.5- Buffaloes are another team who is tough at home. Knight's boys have been horrible of late on road at KU and OU. I look for Colorado to get the quality win and move closer to getting off the bubble.(win)

St. Joseph's -22- This Fordham team has a hard time putting up a fight against an average or below team let alone a team of this quality. ONly way St. JOes doesn't cover is boredom.(loss)

South Florida +20 - Bulls have played better of late as they lost by only 13 at Cinci and beat So. Miss at home. They will keep this one under 15.(win)

Kentucky -14- Wildcats should be a little fiesty after losing to Georgia for the 2nd time this year. Hogs don't have the horses to keep up on the road let alone at Rupp.(win)

Creighton -16.5- Blue Jays need a win badly if they want at large as it will be difficult the way the power conferences are playing out. They will take out some frustration on the Sycamores.(loss)

UAB +3.5- This is one of my upsets of the night as I look for UAB to try to get that marquee victory for the selection committee. Bearcats are doing their late season fade and it continues against the hungry Blazers.

Wake Forest +3.5- Demon Deacons still need another quality victory and pull the upset on Duke for the second time for Duke to lose in 4 days.

NC State -6 - Wolfpack are gaining momentum and I believe they have a great chance of winning ACC. Hodge and co too much for Clemson.(loss)

Hawaii +4.5 - Bows coming off of two subpar home performances break through for crucial straight up road win at Boise.

Gonzaga -25 -I won't bet against Bulldogs rest of the year in this conference as they are clearly better than every team both home and away settings.

Butler +2 - Wisc Milwaukee has been playing down to competition on road and it continues here. Wisc Milw has lost at Youngstown and UIC and Butler looking to gain some momentum going into conference tournament.(win)

Rice PK - Rice looking for a big bounce back and they get it against quality Nevada team.(win)

Illinois -4 - Illini get a little payback against Badgers who have been struggling on road.(win)


Best Plays:

UAB
NC STATE(loss)
ILLINI(win)
WAKE FOREST
CREIGHTON (loss)

Best of luck to everyone.

[This message was edited by Kojak on February 18, 2004 at 10:18 PM.]

 

[oldmanTED]

Kojak:

Of your best plays, I like three of them and have no opinion on the other two. Looks like we may agree again tomorrow. I will post my plays late tomorrow. Good luck to you.

 

[Kojak]

oldman ted,

I will be gone and not back until after games start tomorrow. Can you let me know on what games we agree? I would appreciate it as I will be placing wagers from the car tomorrow.

 

[oldmanTED]

UAB, Illinois and Wake Forest. Not sure yet how many of these I will release as rated plays. I'm going to wait for line movements, particularly on UAB and Wake Forest. The latter continues to rise.

 

[Kojak]

oldmanted,

Thanks as I agree on UAB and Wake but you can get ILLInI right now at some books at 3.5. Might jump on it now. Best of luck.

 

[oldmanTED]

Understand. Opened at -3.5 and is still available. Good luck to you as well. See you tomorrow night.

 

[Kojak]

Three money line plays for tomorrow though I haven't seen odds yet.

UAB
WAKE FOREST
BUTLER (win)

BEST OF LUCK!

[This message was edited by Kojak on February 18, 2004 at 09:01 PM.]

 

[Kojak]

Tuesday record 7-6
wtd 16-14
ytd 266-231-10

Best of luck tomorrow.

 

[Kapusta]

Kojak against two of your top plays UAB, and Wake-that could be a good thing for you I've been on a little slide, love Rice to bounce back. The only thing that would scare me is that both Duke and Cinci are coming off losses, you think they both will drop two? I don't know that's why we gamble. Good Luck on your plays!

 

[jaypaw]

Just wondering about your Colorado Pick

I noticed they (TTU and CO) have played 6 common opponents-

Utah:
@TTU beat by 11
@Colorado Lost by 20

@Kansas:
TTU lost by 19
@Colorado lost by 15
and @Kansas Colorado lost by 21

@Oklahoma State:
TTU won by 4 and @TTU won by 21
Colorado lost by 9

Baylor:
TTU won by 20 and @baylor by 9
Colorado lost to baylor @colordao by 15

Texas:
Colordao lost at Texas by 13
and texas won @TTU by 1

KState:
@TTU beat KState by 11
@Colordao beat Kstate by 1


Thats a lot of common matchups for TTU to come out ahead on isnt it?


Also you said Colorado is so good at home - just out of curiousity I ran some numbers:

Adjusting for crap team wins by both teams I found that on average colorado wins by an average of 4 points at home, and conversely TTU loses by an average of 3.7 on the road.

Taking that a step further using only top tier teams I found that Colorado's average margin of victory at home goes down to 1, but due to TTUs big losses at Oklahoma GT and Kansas their margin of loss on the road actually goes up to about 7.


Taking out the top tier teams (which neither of these teams really are anyway) I see a more balanced picture: Colordao's average margin of victory over teams like Utah, Richmond, oregon State, KState, IaState, Cal, Baylor, Pepp, NW, Nebraska, and CoST - is four (4). At home it only goes up to 4.86. In contrast TTUs average margin of victory over teams like that (including Utah, Minny, KState, Ia, Baylor, A&M, SMU, OHSt, and NM) is nine (NINE). On the road that number falls to exactly 5.

My point is that looking at these facts I see a very balanced game with a slight edge to TTU.

I know that doesnt cover any intangibles but just thought you may be interested in my thought process.

Good luck.

 

[Kojak]

Kapusta,

Yes I do think that Cinci and Duke will drop 2 in a row. Just like when no one thought Florida or UCONN would lose 2 or Georgia beating Kentucky and Florida back to back. From first sight it looks like Duke and UCONN would be motivated to avenge loss. But UAB and Wake Forest have a bigger motivation and its called surviving to make the tournament. UAB needs signature victory for at large and Wake Forest trying to keep head above water. Best of luck to you today and keep up the great work.

 

[Kojak]

jaypaw,

Great analysis! I am basing this pick on recent play. TT has been horrible on the road the past two weeks being non competitive while CU even in defeat has been competitive. Colorado underachieved all year but have equal if not better talent than TT. TT has no one to guard the big ugly David Harrison. Cu imo will will by 6-8 in this one. Best of luck and again appreciate analysis!

 

[jaypaw]

one more point

re:

"TT has been horrible on the road the past two weeks being non competitive"


In the last 2 weeks Texas tech has played 3 games. 2 on the road - a loss in Kansas, and a loss in Oklahoma. The other game they won at home vs KState by 11.

I wouldnt really say that is non competitive.



Its no cakewalk trying to win at oklahoma or at kansas.

Incedentally - Oklahoma State won @Kansas and @Oklahoma (Texas Tech lost to @okState by ONLY 4 but TTU BEAT OkState @TTU by 21)

food for thought



\

by the way thanks for converting me to georgia last night.

 

[jaypaw]

one final note

in the last two weeks colorado has also played 3 games. 2 on the road and one at home. They also lost both of their road games (yes by less but again not at Kansas and Oklahoma either) to Missouri and Texas. They also played KState at home. They won that game by only 1.


GL

 

[GreenDoberman]

Agree with you on Colorado and Illinois. Illini guards will shut down Devin Harris who is carrying the Badgers right now.
Harrison will have a field day for the underachieving Buffaloes and slow down Emmett, you slow down the Red Raiders.

May go with G'Town as well, even though I've bet against em all year to some positive results. Can't see Johnnies staying close to this athletic, if disorganized, bunch.

 

[Kojak]

jaypaw,

Glad I was able to help with Georgia. In regards to Texas Tech, this is a situation imo that stats will lie on the outcome of this one. TT beat K State but the score was not indicative of how close the game was. CU struggled early this year as Harrison was not 100%. Three headed monster of Harrison,Morendais, and Wilson is better than team of really 1 of all american for TT. I am not saying TT is not a good team but CU is also fighting to be a top 5 seed in Big !2 tournament which carries with it a bye. At this time of the year, teams needing wins get it done at home. I see CU getting it done tonight.

 

[Kojak]

Green Doberman,

The only thing that scares me on G-town is how poorly they really are this year. Johnnies got a couple back and are at home. As bad as St. John's is it is hard to imagine laying 11 on the road with G-town. IMO its St.JOhn's on a lean or nothing in that game.Best of luck.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Agreed I have faded G'Town all year, I think they are just too athletic for St.John's. I'm only making a very small play on them and it will not affect my day's win or loss regardless.

 

[jaypaw]

thanks for the input


I like my reasoning too but yours isnt bad at all.

I feel like I'd be missing an opportunity if I didnt play this one though.

So I'll buy the 3 points I think.

hmmmm

 

[Kojak]

jaypaw,

From our arguement, it seems to me this game maybe is a no play considering all of the games on the board tonight. Maybe we are both trying to put a square peg into a round hole. If it was a night like last night with only 8 games maybe. The best play may be a no play!