Illini,
I have a good feel for this Wisky team as a kid that I coached plays on Wisky. He tells me the offense will probably be as good as years past but defense and defensive leadership is the problem this year. They only return 4 starters on that side of the ball after losing James and Hawthorne off of dl, and Starks and Leonard out of the secondary. If you look at Wisky def ppg ly they went like this 6, 3, 7, 3, 7, 13, 17, 12, 14, 49, and 30 in the regular season. Offense only scored over 30 points twice and only 6 of 11 games over 20. So as you can see defense was the key to this team ly. Offense is going to have to be more productive but I really don't think can keep up with BG in a shootout especially after losing Anthony Davis though Booker Stanley and Bernstein are decent backs.
Bowling Green on the other hand, return Jacobs at qb, top 4 rushers, and top 2 receivers including Charles Sharon who is a special receiver. BG did not score less than 17 points in any game ly, scored over 30 in 9 of 11 games, and over 40 points in 8 of 11. They are also 11-4 ats in last 15 road openers since 90. Wisconsin on the other hand is 6-15 in last 21 at home vs non conference opponents.
Overall, I truly believe Wisky is going to have to score in the 30's to win this game. There is too much NFL talent on offensive side for Bowling Green and not enough seasoned defenders for Wisky and no returning defensive leadership. I am sure Alvaraz will have defense ready with that being said but simply don't think Wisky can contain this offense so if they don't get the turnovers there is no chance imo.
Bowling Green 38 Wisconsin 24
Hope this helps. I know Wisky is tough at home but they also lost to UNLV there 2 years ago. I think too much Jacobs to Sharon and runs by Pope!