Key ATS Records through Week 4

[FGators]

I mentioned this in GoSooners thread. Quickly glanced and here are some interesting ATS records. Keep in mind, and look at GS's Week 4 thread, that teams are almost "due for a ATS loss." I hate that system mentality but it does occur. GoSooners mentioned Ole Miss was due for a loss and look what occured. Also, Cal was undefeated ATS and got blasted by Oregon.

Feel free to chime in if you see a discrepancy.

Here it is:

Boise State 4-0
Nebraska 4-0
South Carolina 4-0
UCLA 4-0
Idaho 4-0
Iowa 3-0
Indiana 3-0
UCONN 3-0
Central Florida 3-0
Central Michigan 3-0
TCU 2-0
Arizona State 2-0


Penn State 0-4
New Mexico 0-4
Miami (Ohio) 0-4
Maryland 0-3
Memphis 0-3
Nevada 0-3
East Carolina 0-3
Northwestern 0-3
Florida Atlantic 0-3
Oregon State 0-3
Arkansas 0-2
Illinois 0-2

 

[FGators]

By the way eventually I am going to break this down versus each team's opponent.

I'm hoping to find a 0-3 or 0-4 team playing a team on an against the spread run, hopefully with the 0-3/0-4 team with less than a 50% consensus on Wagerline.

Once again, very systematic but I'm going to investigate.

 

[GoForIt]

Here we go with the Cal thing again. Several people on this site got Minnesota +14 and posted it here (mark's moneymakers, research, sbf those are some off the top of my head).
I got Minnesota
+14.5 (-120) and posted it earlier in the week after buying the 1/2 point. To say Cal was undefeated ATS is a little misleading IMO. I know it went down to 13.5 later in the week at some places, but it was at 14 for a few days.

 

[FGators]

I mean thanks for bringing that up and we can put an asterik next to them.

That's an issue with rankings,etc.

Personally I knew about the Cal situation and just forgot about it.

I quickly scanned this

http://www.madduxsports.com/college-football-ats-standings.html

to gather my information.

 

[GoForIt]

are you counting outlaw lines too?

 

[GoSooners]

I think you'll find that most of these sites or publications will have the ending number with Cal/Minny at -13. I know Phil Steele's Northcoast Powersweep final line was -13. And nobody else (Marc Lawrence etc.) will be off by more than a half point from this number in their final lines. So Cal DID cover their spread vs Minny.

 

[GoForIt]

Here is one you can add on your list, Kansas was 3-0 ATS going into the Southern Miss counting the outlaw line, considering lots of teams play I-AA's it should be in there

Kansas -42.5 against Northern Colorado , WON 49-3
Kansas -12.5 against UTEP, WON 34-7
Kansas -23 against Duke, WON 44-16

 

[GoSooners]

FCS games are counted in my ATS ratings. And TCU lost their spread vs Texas State so are 2-1 ATS.

 

[GoSooners]

Here is one you can add on your list, Kansas was 3-0 ATS going into the Southern Miss counting the outlaw line, considering lots of teams play I-AA's it should be in there

Kansas -42.5 against Northern Colorado , WON 49-3
Kansas -12.5 against UTEP, WON 34-7
Kansas -23 against Duke, WON 44-16

Kansas got their first ATS loss against Southern Miss. Sorry, I didn't see that you already stated going into the game.

 

[GoForIt]

I got Arizona State at 3-0 ATS and not 2-0 ATS

they won 50-3 against Idaho State and the line was 41

 

[GoSooners]

As I stated in my thread this week we only get an average of about 1 ATS repeater every year (wins 8 games or more ATS two years in a row). This is just a wild prediction, but the team that I think has the best chance to repeat an ATS season is Alabama. I've watched this team play a couple times this season, and I think right now they are the best team in the country. When you can easily cover big DD numbers in conference against dangerous offenses like Arkansas your doing something pretty special. And the only way you can cover numbers like this is to have a balanced enough offense to be able to put up at least 35-40 points on the board in every game. Before this week Bama was rushing for 268 a game and passing for 245. And I'm sure they padded those numbers even more against Arky. But more importantly to beat the spread like this you have to have a stifling defense. And Bama may have the best defense in the country. Plus they are a sound team that doesn't make many mistakes. They remind me a lot of the two ten game winners ATS we had last year Florida and OU. These two teams were simply able to line up and overwhelm teams. Bama looks like they can do that every week.

 

[GoForIt]

FCS games are counted in my ATS ratings. And TCU lost their spread vs Texas State so are 2-1 ATS.

I can't call them FCS. They will always be I-AA to me

 

[GoSooners]

I can't call them FCS. They will always be I-AA to me

I just count them as glorified scrimmages. But the reason I include them is I work off a team having a successful season if they get to 8 wins ATS. And if a Division 1 team has one or two of these games on their schedule they don't have many games left to get to 8 ATS wins. So I go ahead and count them. But I don't count FCS games in my stats when capping these teams, since they can disguise a team's real stats..

 

[goblue12]

Only unbeaten vs. defeated ATS game this week is Oregon State at Arizona State.

 

[GoSooners]

One team that I think will light it up in the first half of the year, but struggle ATS in the second half of the season is Central Michigan. They'll start getting to the meat of their schedule in October. And because of what they've done to this point they'll be favored in most if not all of these games with 4 out of 5 of them being played on the road.

 

[GoSooners]

Only unbeaten vs. defeated ATS game this week is Oregon State at Arizona State.

Interesting..OSU is due for a cover. Maybe they can finally get one now that they are in the dog role.

 

[Jetplane]

Penn State failing early was why I locked in Iowa as almost DD to them.

 

[United]

My thread this past Sat had to do with this. I also noted totals that were 3-0 and 0-3.

I bet 19 games betting that they were due to lose their perfect record one way or another.

Results were: 10-9

Now those teams that I lost on will once again be bet against increasing the wager slightly this week. Those that hit 3-0 and 0-3 will also be on the list. Their are some awful bad teams on the 0-4 list!!!

I had really good success with this in the NFL. Once a team hits 2 in a row look for the games that fit in for them to lose. The parity in the NFL for ats and O/U average range between 6-10, 7-9, 8 -8, 10-6. 9-7, 8-8, for quiote a few teams. I looked at the past 5 years and it's almost amazing at how close it is. Of course their are always exceptions as last year Washington was amazing on totals. And one year Baltimore was a covering fool. Still though, they had at least 3 losses one way or another.

 

[heart222]

hi took ore and s.car beause opp were win 8 last yr and still undefeated so it worekd out. this week i will take the 5 4-0 teams. who knows thanks for the data.

 

[heart222]

hi only found 2 lines but cashed them looking forwar to next weeks data. thanks heaert222