Keep it simple, stupid: Villes CBB picks

[xxthevillexx]

Were far enough into the season now to make more educated selections, it's tough to choose to the first 5 games. We have already seen upsets that were highly unexpected, and I love it. That's what college basketball is about, any team can go out and win on any given night. Unfortunately this theme proves to be good for the fan & bad for the bettor. We're all victim to over analyzing, no matter what the sport we come up with a more effective way to win money. The theme for this season is "keep it simple, stupid", the way it will work is fun and easy. Here's the criteria for the plays:

The goal is to not overthink the games, so we will focus on the basics: players, coaches, matchups, location of game, level of emotion (atmosphere), history of the matchup, recent game performance, and finally determining if the spread is reasonable enough to place a wager on.

Ive used and created systematic mathematical aproaches that were decent, but honestly it wasn't fun anymore, and took up gobs of time and effort. Those who do that, I envy your dedication towards it, because it can be overwhelming & stressful. Hopefully this method will keep the stress level down put a few extra dollars in the pocket, and most of all make watching games even more fun. Good luck to everyone this season. I will post plays as I see them, feel free to comment anytime! Cheers boys

-Ville

 

[Incubus]

Good luck this season! Look forward to seeing your plays. :toast:

 

[xxthevillexx]

Good luck this season! Look forward to seeing your plays. :toast:

inc same to you!

 

[xxthevillexx]

Chatanooga -2

 

[XSPower]

Good luck tonight!!!

 

[xxthevillexx]

Good luck tonight!!!

Crossing my fingers XS, same to you.

 

[xxthevillexx]

Season Record (0-1)

Loss number 1 of the season, UL monroe beats Chattanooga (-2) by 10.

Pick for tomorrow:

UNC -6 vs. Maryland: roy williams, at home, pissed off about being 5-1, playing number 2 team in the country. Good enough for me. Go heels

 

[xxthevillexx]

Two more for tonight:

Purdue -1

Tx Arlington +9.5

 

[xxthevillexx]

Season Record (3-1)

A solid tuesday night with all three picks hitting. So far here's what i like for wednesday:

Cuse -5

Iowa -5.5

Washington St +10


Will post more if i see any i like. Cheers

-ville

 

[xxthevillexx]

Just saw this one and wanted to get it in, i think it will go up to about 8.5 or so.

Northeastern -6.5 vs. Harvard: NE just knocked off Miami a couple days ago, theyre at home, and seem to be a legit threat at the moment.

 

[xxthevillexx]

Oklahoma St -2 (thanks United)

 

[United]

Good luck, hope it wins, hoops can be some strange times,

 

[MoMoneyNoProblem]

Good luck ville. Everyone on 'cuse. Will be watching from the sidelines.

 

[xxthevillexx]

United, that's why it's so much fun to watch! Makes it hard for the bettors though. Money, enjoy the game...I was going to ask if anyone had any insight on why everyone seems to be "on cuse" but the line keeps falling? Late money towards wisky? Not really sure but I'm confident in the play. NE vs Harv is up to 8.5 now, hope that pays off getting it in early. Less than two hours until the fun begins. Y'all don't spend too much $$ tonight

 

[xxthevillexx]

4-4 overall record

1-3 tonight w/ wash st +10 pending. Hope yall had a good night.

 

[xxthevillexx]

Season Record 5-4
Shew snuck by with one there, covered by one point, back to positive. So after looking at tomorrows games i found only oen that i like:

Long Beach State +6.5 @ Colorado St - CSU has struggled against teams like Abilene Christian, Oakland, and Loyola Marymount at home. LBSU has played a much better schedule, losing their last three games by a combined total of 15 points (Ok st, Ok St, & SDSU). Im sure there is some frustration in the locker room and this is a perfect chance to unleash their close game loses.

Leaning towards UK, seems too good to be true. May pull the trigger tomorrow if anyone likes them.

-ville

 

[xxthevillexx]

After debating with myself for the last hour about two games I've decided to take a chance, here we go:

North Texas + 16 vs Texas Arlington: all day I was going to take UTA, they meet all the criteria I use for bets, tonight is a little different, the spread isn't as reasonable as I would like, so I'm going to reverse my money and put it on a team that is struggling. After doing a little reviewing of their games, a trend that popped out was the fact that they haven't gotten blown out by anyone except northern iowa, who has proven they are a very good ball team beat North Carolina earlier. NT lost by 23 and if I had to guess there was probably a few fouls in the last few minutes that added on. UTA has beaten good teams so far, which makes them subject to overlook at team that could easily be 4-2 or 5-1. If you read United's thread I was on UTA, and think that they are very good. My gut says 16 points is too many.


Will place bet on UCLA if it reaches -8.5. This is a screwy spread IMO, and should be higher. Three games yesterday had lines that made me feel like I was a genius, (OK St -2, Cuse -5, Mich St -5.5) I mean cmon look at that. Money all day right ? Wrong. All three failed to cover. At first glance this would have been an easy choice for me because it meets 85% of the simple criteria that I want to bet on. The Locatjon, emotion, and recent play of UK holds me back. This is the Bruins Super Bowl.

Always like to hear thoughts and other folks comments, even if your calling me an idiot lol! Goodluck yall

-ville

 

[MoMoneyNoProblem]

You're an idiot!!! Just kidding. I also spent a lot of time (too much) looking at N Tex/ UTA. I do agree with you on the fact that N Tex hasn't been blown out by anyone except NI. And that's why I initially leaned towards them. 16 pts is a lot. Another thing I overlooked is that these 2 teams are rivals. Many of these kids are locals who have played with and against each other before their college days. I may make a play on this after all. Will be a game time decision.

 

[xxthevillexx]

Money...i love the rivalry aspect that you mentioned. Didnt know that..should create even more emotion for the dogs of north texas. GL buddy

 

[Recon792]

I like the Long Beach pick here -- BOL