Kaisch gets the nod, & hell to pay if Drumpf doesn't

[Dafinch]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/john-kasich-will-be-the-r_b_9638598.html?

I'm not buying either the inevitability of his getting the nod, nor his chances against HC if he gets it. I think hypothetical head to head match-ups 7-8 months out are extremely overrated. The article that follows this one, however, rings true, IMO. [h=1]John Kasich Will Be the Republican Nominee for President[/h]

The writing’s on the wall in the Republican Party: John Kasich will be the Party’s nominee in 2016, with Marco Rubio as his running mate. Only the media’s delight at continued Trumpian drama is keeping politicos and pundits from coast to coast from stating the obvious.

So as not to belabor the point, here are eight single-sentence reasons Kasich/Rubio is now almost certain to be the Republican ticket in 2016:

1. Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and not only will he not get to that figure prior to the Convention — he’d need to win well over 50 percent of the remaining delegates to do so, and even during his current run as front-runner he’s only won 46 percent of delegates — he won’t even get close enough to that mark to pass it via uncommitted delegates at the Convention.
2. Ted Cruz and John Kasich staying in the race through Cleveland not only will ensure that Trump can’t get close to 1,237 delegates via primary and caucus votes, it will also ensure that both men have a reasonable delegate total by the time they arrive at the Convention — more than enough to keep both of them in the picture in the view of Convention delegates.
3. Republican Party elders have more than enough clout to make sure that “Rule 40(b)” gets changed prior to or at the Convention, thereby enabling Republicans like John Kasich who haven’t won a majority of delegates in eight states to nevertheless be considered for the nomination.
4. After the first ballot in Cleveland — during which no candidate will have the require delegates for nomination — most of the delegates will be free to vote for whomever they wish, and while Ted Cruz has craftily planted his supporters in many delegations, it’s not nearly enough to get him to 1,237 delegates on the second ballot.
5. Whereas Ted Cruz is loathed by the Republican Party elite, has lost to Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls 55 percent of the time since November 2015, and has no actual accomplishments in government to point to, John Kasich hasn’t lost a single head-to-head poll to Hillary Clinton in 2016, is broadly if imperfectly acceptable to both Party elites and movement conservatives, and is far and away the most accomplished Republican primary candidate left.
6. Marco Rubio has deliberately held onto his 172 delegates so that he can create a unity ticket with John Kasich in Cleveland — a ticket that will begin with somewhere between 350 and 600 delegates on the first ballot at the Convention, depending upon how many delegates John Kasich wins going forward.
7. Rubio is certain not to give his delegates away for free, nor to give them to his arch-enemies Cruz or Trump, nor to — as some suppose — merely fade into the background when he was and remains among the most ambitious politicians in the Republican Party.
8. A Kasich/Rubio ticket would appeal to both mainstream Republicans (Kasich) and Tea Partiers (Rubio), to both white and Latino voters, to younger voters who want to see someone relatively young on the ticket, to those looking for a ticket whose members run the gamut from executive to legislative experience at both the state and federal levels, and to those who believe all members of a presidential ticket should hail from a major battleground state.

If all of the above occurs, as the conventional wisdom seems to now suggest it will, and the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, she’ll begin the general election campaign down by double-digits to a man she hasn’t polled well against for eight months or more — basically since the beginning of the 2016 race.

The Republican Party is more than smart enough to see that Cruz’s horrifying unfavorables — somehow, incredibly, worse than Clinton’s historically bad ones — will sink his candidacy, especially when coupled with terrible head-to-head polling against Clinton or (per usual, much more dramatically) Sanders.

Meanwhile, Kasich’s continued domination of Clinton in polling will convince Convention delegates — who value electability above all else — to put Kasich at the top of the ticket, and a known, reliable quantity like Rubio beside him.

Of course Bernie Sanders defeats Kasich by double-digits in the most recent polling, but Kasich and Rubio are both banking on the assumption that Democrats will, against all reason and hard evidence, nominate their least electable candidate.

And if they’re wrong — if Bernie’s the nominee come Cleveland — well, Bernie beats all the Republican candidates head-to-head, so at least (the Kasich argument will run) the Ohio Governor loses to Sanders by less than all the others.

 

[Dafinch]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusiv...t-republicans-election-reuters-100457456.html

Exclusive: Blocking Trump could hurt Republicans in election - Reuters/Ipsos poll


By Chris Kahn
(Reuters) - A third of Republican voters who support Donald Trump could turn their backs on their party in November's presidential election if he is denied the nomination in a contested convention, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The results are bad news for Trump's rivals as well as party elites opposed to the real estate billionaire, suggesting that an alternative Republican nominee for the Nov. 8 presidential race would have a tougher road against the Democrats.


"If it’s a close election, this is devastating news" for the Republicans, said Donald Green, an expert on election turnout at Columbia University.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted March 30 to April 8 asked Trump’s Republican supporters two questions: if Trump wins the most delegates in the primaries but loses the nomination, what would they do on Election Day, and how would it impact their relationship with the Republican Party?
Sixty-six percent said they would vote for the candidate who eventually wins the nomination, while the remaining third were split between a number of alternatives such as not voting, supporting a third-party candidate, and switching parties and voting for the Democratic nominee.


Meanwhile, 58 percent said they would remain with the Republican Party. Another 16 percent said they would leave it, and 26 percent said they did not know what they would do with their registration. The online poll of 468 Republican Trump supporters has a credibility interval of 5.3 percentage points.
(Click here for the poll results: http://tmsnrt.rs/25PRLZe )
Trump has topped the national polls throughout most of the race for the Republican nomination, and has won more delegates than any other Republican so far. A Reuters/Ipsos online poll from April 4-8 showed that 42 percent of Republicans support Trump, compared with 32 percent for U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and 20 percent for Ohio Governor John Kasich. [L2N17B1J0]


Cruz and Kasich have both said their paths to victory rely on winning at least enough votes to block an outright win for Trump and force a decision at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland.
'I'LL BE FED UP'
But Trump, whose supporters have remained loyal even as he rankled women, Hispanics, Muslims, veterans and others with his fiery rhetoric on the campaign trail, predicted last month there would be riots outside the convention if he was blocked.
"If they broker him out, I’ll be fed up with the Republicans,” said Chuck Thompson, 66, a Trump supporter from Concord, North Carolina, who took the poll.


Thompson, a lifelong Republican, said he admires Trump’s independence from big campaign donors and takes that as a sign that the front-runner will be able to think for himself if he were to become president.
If Trump loses the nomination, Thompson said he would quit the party. “The people want Donald Trump. If they (Republicans) can’t deal with that, I don’t need them,” he said.
Green said the departure of even a small number of Republicans would make it tough for the party to prevent the Democrats from winning the White House, especially if the election is again decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of battleground states.


In 2012, President Barack Obama won Florida by less than 1 percentage point and Ohio and Virginia by less than 4 percentage points. “The Republicans don’t really have any margin of error,” Green said.
Trump and Cruz both trail Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton among likely general election voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, but not by much, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos polls.
Generally, a convention battle is a bad sign for the health of a political party, said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of the book, “Primary Politics: How Presidential Candidates Have Shaped the Modern Nominating System.”


“When a party gets to a point when it has a contested convention, it almost always hurts them,” Kamarck said. “It’s a confirmation of some really deep fissures within the party that were unable to be dealt with during the primary season.”
Trump supporter Elizabeth Oerther, 40, of Louisville, Kentucky, said she would switch parties and vote for the Democratic nominee if the Republicans denied Trump the nomination.
"If you don’t give it to him, I’m going to vote against them," said Oerther, who took the poll. “They want to take away the choice of the people. That’s wrong.”

 

[187Sports]

Gop!

 

[superbeets]

 

[superbeets]

 

[roadreeler57]

Yeah I get all my news from yahoo....Signed Duhfinch...

 

[superbeets]

[h=1]US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2016 - REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE BETTING ODDS[/h]

Kasich +600

 

[superbeets]

[h=6]- APRIL 08, 2016 -[/h][h=1]DONALD TRUMP’S PATH TO 1,237 IS NOT MISSION IMPOSSIBLE[/h]The New York Times
Until Wisconsin, Donald Trump was considered likely to win a majority of pledged delegates. In truth, his plan to reach 1,237 was already very vulnerable; Ted Cruz had built enough support by March 15 that even adding a modest share of Marco Rubio’s voters was likely to start him on the road to deny Mr. Trump a majority.
But after Mr. Trump’s loss Tuesday, the conventional wisdom has gone too far in the other direction. His path to 1,237 is still clear. It is certainly narrow, but it may require him to do only two challenging things: win two tossup states, Indiana and California. There’s an argument he’s currently favored in both.
Yes, Mr. Trump lost badly in Wisconsin and, perhaps more important, Mr. Cruz fared really well. It could prove to be a turning point in the race for the Republican nomination, the moment when Mr. Trump’s opposition finally coalesced behind a single conservative candidate.
But the word “could” isn’t a cop-out. It really only “could” be a turning point. It won’t be if Mr. Cruz can’t maintain such a large share of the non-Trump vote.
Mr. Cruz’s strength might have depended on a convergence of factors that can’t necessarily be repeated, like the strong support of the state’s G.O.P. establishment; one of the nation’s most engaged electorates; strategic voting to deny Mr. Trump; and a deep pool of religious and well-educated conservatives.
Northeast
All of the factors that made it so easy for Mr. Cruz to consolidate the anti-Trump vote will mostly fade in the Northeast, where the race turns next. Neither polls nor the political establishment will send a clear signal that Mr. Cruz — and only Mr. Cruz — can beat Mr. Trump.
John Kasich has just as good a case. He ran ahead of Mr. Cruz in Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and in the D.C. suburbs. He also ran ahead of Mr. Cruz around Detroit and in the core of the Chicago metropolitan area.
That didn’t happen in Wisconsin — Mr. Cruz won Dane County, which includes Madison — but even there Mr. Kasich was in striking distance. He won 29 percent of the vote, far better than his 14 percent statewide result.
The polls in the Northeast suggest that Mr. Cruz would be lucky to end with the split of anti-Trump voters (38 percent for him and 29 percent for Mr. Kasich) that he got in Madison. Mr. Kasich has generally run ahead of Mr. Cruz in the Northeast.
Not only will Mr. Cruz struggle to maintain the same level of support among non-Trump voters, but the Northeastern states are also far more favorable to Mr. Trump than Wisconsin. Wisconsin was always poised to be one of his worst states; the same measures suggest that Mr. Trump should approach or exceed 50 percent in some Northeastern states.
The combination of better territory for Mr. Trump and a more divided field could allow Mr. Trump to win in the Northeastern corridor by huge delegate margins, perhaps winning more than 80 percent of them on April 19 (New York) and April 26 (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island). Mr. Trump could win even more than that if he ends up faring well in deeply Democratic districts with few Republicans and many minorities.
His path is narrow enough that every delegate counts. He might need as much as 90 percent of the delegates from the Northeastern states and West Virginia to keep his delegate target in California manageable. But it’s not very difficult to imagine Mr. Trump doing so well. It’s basically what the polls say he’d get, at least right now.
Indiana
The most important state that no one is talking about is Indiana. The contest there comes one week after the Northeastern primaries, and it’s arguably the most balanced state left in the race. It has a mix of both Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump’s strengths, somewhat like the two states where they’ve fought two of their closest races so far, North Carolina and Missouri.
Indiana awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district, which could easily allow Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz to claim most of the state’s 57 delegates with a modest victory.
There isn’t much polling data in Indiana, but Mr. Cruz would be a favorite if he could get the level of support among non-Trump voters that he did in Wisconsin. It would be a closer race than Wisconsin; it’s the type of state where Mr. Trump ought to approach or exceed 40 percent of the vote, not the 35 percent he won in Wisconsin.
The catch, though, is that there’s no guarantee that Mr. Kasich will be that weak again. If anything, after what is expected to be a wave of big wins for Mr. Trump in the Northeastern states and potentially a series of second-place finishes by Mr. Kasich, it might be more difficult for Mr. Cruz.
Provided he dominates in the Northeast as expected, Mr. Trump will have a good chance to win the nomination if he can carry Indiana. Without it, it’s very difficult for him to reach 1,237. He would either have to win nearly all of California’s delegates or win a state where he’s an underdog — most likely Montana — and post a clear win in California. It’s possible, but it’s hard to see how he would be poised to do either of those things if he’s losing in Indiana.
California
If Mr. Trump wins big in the Northeast, carries Indiana and picks up a few proportional delegates in New Mexico, Oregon and Washington (as he is all but assured to do), the race will come down to California on June 7.
It’s too far away to be very confident about whether Mr. Trump would have a realistic chance to win the 70 percent or so of California delegates that he would need to win an outright majority.
But, at least right now, it looks realistic.
Three top-tier pollsters have shown that Mr. Trump could pull it off: the vaunted Field Poll, a Los Angeles Times/U.S.C. poll conducted by the prominent Democratic firm GQR and a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California. The three polls found Mr. Trump ahead by 7, 1 and 11 points among likely Republican voters, with Mr. Trump winning between 36 and 38 percent of the vote.
There’s good reason to believe that Mr. Trump’s weakest poll — The Los Angeles Times/U.S.C. poll that showed him ahead by one point among likely voters — underestimates his strength. It showed Mr. Trump ahead by seven points among all registered Republicans, like the methodologically similar Field Poll. The detailed results offered reason to think that Mr. Trump’s support might more closely resemble that seven-point margin than the reported one-point edge among likely voters.
The poll, which used the state’s voter registration file and therefore had information on the past vote history of respondents, found that Mr. Trump was ahead by five points among voters who participated in either the 2012 or 2014 Republican primaries (neither of which were especially high profile).
It found he was up by eight points among voters who participated in either the 2014 or 2012 general election. It found he was up by two points among people who voted in both the low-turnout 2014 and 2012 primaries. All considered, it is hard to imagine that Mr. Trump would be ahead by only one point in a high-turnout primary — especially given the state’s penchant for early voting.
Mr. Trump would have a very good shot to win 70 percent of the delegates with a seven-point victory, since the state awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. He would still have at least a chance to earn 70 percent of the delegates with a far smaller margin of victory.
It’s also a state where Mr. Kasich could fare quite well, if he’s still relevant. There are a lot of districts in fairly liberal stretches of coastal California where he could break 25 percent of the vote — which again might help Mr. Trump win with a lower share of the vote.
Obviously a lot could change between now and June, but this is not a crazy scenario. It’s consistent with the current state polling and it’s consistent with how demographically similar states have voted so far this cycle. If Mr. Cruz can’t unify Republican voters, it might just happen.

 

[Dafinch]

Yeah I get all my news from yahoo....Signed Duhfinch...

First of all, I very clearly stated that I didn't agree with the writer's assessment of Kasich's chances, so, learn how to read, asshole. Secondly, YOU sprayed your shorts over Frump's getting endorsed by that bird brain bimbo, Kirstie Alley, so STFU and go overestimate a Frump crowd by 200%, Jagoff.

 

[roadreeler57]

First of all, I very clearly stated that I didn't agree with the writer's assessment of Kasich's chances, so, learn how to read, asshole. Secondly, YOU sprayed your shorts over Frump's getting endorsed by that bird brain bimbo, Kirstie Alley, so STFU and go overestimate a Frump crowd by 200%, Jagoff.

If you didnt agree with it then why even post it in the first place shit for brains?...Trying to prolong your name?...I cant overestamate Trump crowds enough & not nesessary....The crowd photos speak for themselves...

 

[vitterd]

If you didnt agree with it then why even post it in the first place shit for brains?...Trying to prolong your name?...I cant overestamate Trump crowds enough & not nesessary....The crowd photos speak for themselves...

You are falling into same trap you did in 2012. Crowds at a rally is not a reason to think Trump will win. I never missed a vote in my life and I don't go to any political rally. Lots of people do that. Plus, many of those people make it to that but not to the voting booth on Election Day.

If you really don't want Hillary to be president......pray that Kasich is the nominee.

 

[mountain]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/john-kasich-will-be-the-r_b_9638598.html?

I'm not buying either the inevitability of his getting the nod, nor his chances against HC if he gets it. I think hypothetical head to head match-ups 7-8 months out are extremely overrated. The article that follows this one, however, rings true, IMO. John Kasich Will Be the Republican Nominee for President



The writing’s on the wall in the Republican Party: John Kasich will be the Party’s nominee in 2016, with Marco Rubio as his running mate. Only the media’s delight at continued Trumpian drama is keeping politicos and pundits from coast to coast from stating the obvious.

So as not to belabor the point, here are eight single-sentence reasons Kasich/Rubio is now almost certain to be the Republican ticket in 2016:

1. Donald Trump needs 1,237 delegates to win on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, and not only will he not get to that figure prior to the Convention — he’d need to win well over 50 percent of the remaining delegates to do so, and even during his current run as front-runner he’s only won 46 percent of delegates — he won’t even get close enough to that mark to pass it via uncommitted delegates at the Convention.
2. Ted Cruz and John Kasich staying in the race through Cleveland not only will ensure that Trump can’t get close to 1,237 delegates via primary and caucus votes, it will also ensure that both men have a reasonable delegate total by the time they arrive at the Convention — more than enough to keep both of them in the picture in the view of Convention delegates.
3. Republican Party elders have more than enough clout to make sure that “Rule 40(b)” gets changed prior to or at the Convention, thereby enabling Republicans like John Kasich who haven’t won a majority of delegates in eight states to nevertheless be considered for the nomination.
4. After the first ballot in Cleveland — during which no candidate will have the require delegates for nomination — most of the delegates will be free to vote for whomever they wish, and while Ted Cruz has craftily planted his supporters in many delegations, it’s not nearly enough to get him to 1,237 delegates on the second ballot.
5. Whereas Ted Cruz is loathed by the Republican Party elite, has lost to Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls 55 percent of the time since November 2015, and has no actual accomplishments in government to point to, John Kasich hasn’t lost a single head-to-head poll to Hillary Clinton in 2016, is broadly if imperfectly acceptable to both Party elites and movement conservatives, and is far and away the most accomplished Republican primary candidate left.
6. Marco Rubio has deliberately held onto his 172 delegates so that he can create a unity ticket with John Kasich in Cleveland — a ticket that will begin with somewhere between 350 and 600 delegates on the first ballot at the Convention, depending upon how many delegates John Kasich wins going forward.
7. Rubio is certain not to give his delegates away for free, nor to give them to his arch-enemies Cruz or Trump, nor to — as some suppose — merely fade into the background when he was and remains among the most ambitious politicians in the Republican Party.
8. A Kasich/Rubio ticket would appeal to both mainstream Republicans (Kasich) and Tea Partiers (Rubio), to both white and Latino voters, to younger voters who want to see someone relatively young on the ticket, to those looking for a ticket whose members run the gamut from executive to legislative experience at both the state and federal levels, and to those who believe all members of a presidential ticket should hail from a major battleground state.

If all of the above occurs, as the conventional wisdom seems to now suggest it will, and the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, she’ll begin the general election campaign down by double-digits to a man she hasn’t polled well against for eight months or more — basically since the beginning of the 2016 race.

The Republican Party is more than smart enough to see that Cruz’s horrifying unfavorables — somehow, incredibly, worse than Clinton’s historically bad ones — will sink his candidacy, especially when coupled with terrible head-to-head polling against Clinton or (per usual, much more dramatically) Sanders.

Meanwhile, Kasich’s continued domination of Clinton in polling will convince Convention delegates — who value electability above all else — to put Kasich at the top of the ticket, and a known, reliable quantity like Rubio beside him.

Of course Bernie Sanders defeats Kasich by double-digits in the most recent polling, but Kasich and Rubio are both banking on the assumption that Democrats will, against all reason and hard evidence, nominate their least electable candidate.

And if they’re wrong — if Bernie’s the nominee come Cleveland — well, Bernie beats all the Republican candidates head-to-head, so at least (the Kasich argument will run) the Ohio Governor loses to Sanders by less than all the others.

Great, Huffpo, the same source that gave the members the most embarrassing thread in Rx history...."Whack Job Carson stripped of brain surgeon license".

You, like your sources, are a shameless hack.

 

[Dafinch]

If you didnt agree with it then why even post it in the first place shit for brains?...Trying to prolong your name?...I cant overestamate Trump crowds enough & not nesessary....The crowd photos speak for themselves...

Because, you fucking moron, just because I don't agree with their assessment of JK's chances doesn't mean that it wasn't a thought provoking article, you were clearly too stupid to understand I didn't agree with them on your first "read through." Furthermore, it wasn't "necessary" for you to lie like the scum that you are about the size of Romney's crowd, but that didn't stop you from doing it anyway. Run along and jerk off to that brain dead bimbo Kirstie Alley.kth)(&^Slapping-silly90)):madasshol:trx-smly0:kissingbb:bigfinger:fckmad::Countdown

 

[Dafinch]

Great, Huffpo, the same source that gave the members the most embarrassing thread in Rx history...."Whack Job Carson stripped of brain surgeon license".

You, like your sources, are a shameless hack.

Go fuck your momma and your sister, Hillbilly...oh, wait, they're one and the same...:devilex:kth)(&^Slapping-silly90)):madasshol:trx-smly0:kissingbb:bigfinger:fckmad::Countdown

 

[Dafinch]

You are falling into same trap you did in 2012. Crowds at a rally is not a reason to think Trump will win. I never missed a vote in my life and I don't go to any political rally. Lots of people do that. Plus, many of those people make it to that but not to the voting booth on Election Day.

If you really don't want Hillary to be president......pray that Kasich is the nominee.

Again, I don't get the enthusiasm for him, he's always droning on abou how it fixed such and such in Ohio, practically nobody has called him on it because he's a non-entity, but if and when they do, I'm sure there will plenty of negatives. It probably wouldn't be as bad an ass kicking as it would be with Frump or Lying' Ted, but he'd lose all the same.

 

[vitterd]

Again, I don't get the enthusiasm for him, he's always droning on abou how it fixed such and such in Ohio, practically nobody has called him on it because he's a non-entity, but if and when they do, I'm sure there will plenty of negatives. It probably wouldn't be as bad an ass kicking as it would be with Frump or Lying' Ted, but he'd lose all the same.

Polling right now has Kasich beating Hillary and beating her soundly in some. The negatives surrounding Trump and Cruz are so high that they surpass Hillary negatives. Kasich doesn't have that problem and probably why he's doing well in head to head polling against Hillary.

not saying he's a lock to beat Hillary but those other two have little to no chance.

 

[scottcarter]

 

[mountain]

Go fuck your momma and your sister, Hillbilly...oh, wait, they're one and the same...:devilex:kth)(&^Slapping-silly90)):madasshol:trx-smly0:kissingbb:bigfinger:fckmad::Countdown

Intellectually sound response Len. Can't say I expected anything else from a 63 year old bitter, frustrated loser. Keep them coming

 

[ScottL]

If you didnt agree with it then why even post it in the first place shit for brains?...Trying to prolong your name?...I cant overestamate Trump crowds enough & not nesessary....The crowd photos speak for themselves...

You've never read something interesting and posted it, even if it didn't share your opinion?
If you want to pick on definch do it because he's out of his mind, not because he shared an article. Especially considering 99% of the links you lay down here are either broken or never clicked.

 

[Dafinch]

Intellectually sound response Len. Can't say I expected anything else from a 63 year old bitter, frustrated loser. Keep them coming

You keep acting like you know so much about me, when's the big visit to "set me straight," cocksucker? You keep talking stupid shit to deflect from the fact that your party is a disgrace and is gonna get butt fucked come November. Run along and lay small pipe with Mama Hillbilly, "Deliverance" Boy.