K-State @ Stanford Week #1

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Went ahead and threw some $ down on K-State +16 as they travel westward to play Stanford on the farm, Friday 9/2. Line looks about right according to my numbers so not really a value play. However, the Trees open the month of September with a brutal schedule that not only includes this game, but then a trifecta of USC, UCLA and then Washington after that. I just wonder how focused they will be on prepping for the Wildcats when they have primary PAC-12 division rivals on deck? Stanford lost a ton of talent to graduation and the NFL, plus they will be breaking in a new QB so a slow start here would not be surprising. Meanwhile, for K-State this is their only "real" game for the month of September, a victory here and they would crack the top 20. While I'm not calling for the upset, K-State does return 9 starters on defense and nobody seems to do more with less than the wily old grandpa Snyder.
 

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Opening a game at Stanford with a rebuilt offense is going to be tough. Last
season on offense was bizarre to say the least. K-State lost their starting QB on
the first play of the first game. The second game they lost the second team QB,
both for the season. The offense ended the season starting a converted WR at
quarterback. K-State will start a QB with little experience with an offensive line
with just one starter returning. Lot to ask against a good Stanford defense.

The defense should be pretty good with four preseason All-Big 12 players
named on the defense.
 

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The O/U interests me. Both teams with new offensive playmakers (and McCaffrey) would seem to be less inclined to have their timing (or rhythm) down while defenses tend to gel faster. And this is only week 1.

The Cardinal lost their QB but I remember when Hogan came in and replaced Andrew Luck. It took him half a season to figure things out. Stanford got by on defense before that happened and we could easily be looking at more of the same here. (Except for McCaffrey)

Anyone seen a game total out there?
 

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I actually have it lined at Stanford -12.5 so I like it as well. I'm not rushing to jump on a 16 with 6 weeks to go but I don't blame you. I doubt we see a 17 or a 14 so at the end of the day it's probably not the worst idea to go ahead and lock it in.
 

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Went ahead and threw some $ down on K-State +16

I made a small play on Kansas St when the line first came out. K-State's offense is a complete unknown but their D should be decent. Two of their returning starters on D were forced into starting last year due to injuries and may or may not start this year. But I don't think that matters, 16 just seems like too many for this game.

Like Conan alluded to, the total for this game could end up the best play. K-State should be an under play in every game until their D gets banged up.
 

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I like Stanford to win this game and cover rather easily.

Something like 41-14.

The Cards have one of the best players in America and have been a profitable
21-6 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more.
 

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