Just wanting to know if anyone likes...

Brock Landers · Oct 1, 2004

Wisconsin this weekend, i have stated repeatedly that illinois +14 1/2 is my top play...

Does ANYONE have a case for Wisconsin???

Ego74 · Oct 1, 2004

Anthony Davis is expected back in the lineup for Wiscy...could make a world of difference for the Badger offense.

Highdaddy · Oct 1, 2004

Illinois can get rolled by ANYBODY

Brock Landers · Oct 1, 2004

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dalel · Oct 1, 2004

I live 80 miles from the Illinois campus and their defense is not good at stopping anyone. Wisconsin does not score a lot but they will on this defense. wisconsin has the best scoring defense in the nation right now.Look fro the Illini to score between 14 and 21 points. If Illinois can keep wisky from scoring 31 they have a good chance to cover with the 15. good luck.

BigPete · Oct 1, 2004

Here are my reasons

1. Public Dog

2. Home teams that allow less than 17 points per game cover 65% of the time.

and five other scenarios that show over a 67% cover rate in favor of Wisconsin, but I cant share all my secrets.

I just think i talked myself into Wisconsin :think:

Brock Landers · Oct 1, 2004

If you analzie enough, and put up all kinds of stats, you can convince yourself of anything.

Use some common sense, Wisconsin's D is "so good" becasue they haven't faced a decent offense yet, not one, Penn St had a 3rd stringer going who was totally clueless.

BigPete · Oct 1, 2004

I disagree. When 200 games fit into a certain scenario and they just happen to cover over 70% I tend to side with that side or at least not play the other. Most of these are based on rushing and defense, which to me is the key to winning and covering. I wouldnt follow em if there wasnt a large sample size.

Heres another: The home team covers 57% of the time vs teams that allow over 190 yards rushing and thats a 370 game sample size. And if the home team happens to average of 150 yards rushing the home team covers 65% and thats for a 210 game sample.

Likewise with Illinois' offensive numbers as they have faced defensives that have allowed over 30 points per game and over 200 yards rushing a game. Just a thought. They will be lucky to score 10.