UM’s offensive line is last in the nation in sacks allowed (25 total), which heavily contributes to Miami’s offensive woes. Williams has been pummeled (and hit a lot more) 19 of those 25 times. Perry got sacked six times last week. To make matters worse, blitz-heavy Virginia is second nationally in team sacks, averaging 4.8 a game behind Penn State’s 5.
Agree, I always look for line mismatches and when a team has a struggling OL and they face a good DL, that can be a huge difference.
The Virginia coach has the team focused, they are off a bye, and are talented enough to control the game, versus a Miami team that seems to be out of control. Many will think Miami will cite this as a critical game, are at home, need to win after an embarrassing loss, and Miami is a brand name so they are a slight favorite, so what?
I sure like Virginia in this spot, for at least a regular wager, I am considering a BIG move.
GL!
The Virginia coach has the team focused, they are off a bye, and are talented enough to control the game, versus a Miami team that seems to be out of control. Many will think Miami will cite this as a critical game, are at home, need to win after an embarrassing loss, and Miami is a brand name so they are a slight favorite, so what?
I sure like Virginia in this spot, for at least a regular wager, I am considering a BIG move.
GL!
Something that's a bit interesting even though it's only 3 years ....
The Last 3 Times ... 2013 , 2015 , 2018 ....the Oklahoma Sooners came into into the Texas game undefeated ....
They lost all 3
2018 .... 45-48
2015 ....17-24
2013 ....20-36
Your call just sayin
The Last 3 Times ... 2013 , 2015 , 2018 ....the Oklahoma Sooners came into into the Texas game undefeated ....
They lost all 3
2018 .... 45-48
2015 ....17-24
2013 ....20-36
Your call just sayin
Because they're at home, its national TV and everyone's waiting for them to put it together. And there was a sign of life last week. There is talent there and besides for good reason no one really trusts UVA.
I sense that 2019s UVA version is different based upon their ACC play in their two games and in-game coaching
Because the lines aren't just based off the statically better team, there are several factors considered and one of the most important factors if not the most important is Public Perception. Vegas has perfected the art of setting lines based on how the majority will bet. So yea, there are going to be times when the actual better team is the dog. Just listen to what some are already saying, their going to bet miami just because miami is the favorite and Vegas don't make mistakes so Miami is the fav for a reason. One thing is for sure, vegas doesn't make mistakes but that don't mean they don't favor the worse team, it just means they favor making the most money.
Also, Bronco Mendenhall is an established head coach, who obviously has the the UVA program on the rise, while Manny Diaz is still an unproven commodity. In addition, Cavs didn’t bring their best game to South Bend. Therefore, during the two week interim since then, I’m sure the coaches have their full attention and the team should be focused knowing they didn’t play well against the Irish.
This is an interesting point. However, linesmakers need to make the lines as close to statistical reality as possible with a possible shade to a public team. But the reality is, if they put a bad number on a team that doesn't match the reality of the difference between those teams, they will get hammered with sharps that know better. Everyone thinks VA is the better team. I think the defensive statistics, at least yardage wise, are very similar. Their strength of schedule is also very similar. Miami offense is ranked much higher yardage wise. So, to say that Virginia is decisively the better team is true in record, but there is more to it than meets the eye. If Virginia was made a 3 point favorite here, books would get ambushed with Miami betters. They are getting it now at Miami -1 (moved to -2.5). They don't play the games on paper, and Virginia may beat them down, but I seriously doubt it. I like Miami here, but not enough to play it.
I agree to an extent but what I was saying is sometimes vegas knows their favoring the wrong team and their willing to give up a freebie to the sharps because they know the majority of the betters and money will out weigh the extremely small percentage of actual true sharps and that's where the money is.
I have always wondered about this. So volume of money drives lines, but also some books move lines on who's betting it. Some move on air as well. So, when a line moves from -1 to -2.5 to MIA, and 66% of the public on VA, one would have to think that this is sharp money. I guess you don't really know.
I actually believe if they were trying to entice people with a -1 MIA line, they are trying to get people to bet VA. Consensus of public is the same - 2-3 MIA against a 4-1 VA team with only loss to ND. How can MIA be favored? Answer is that if they were, they would be put books in a bad exposure position. A +3 MIA line prob ends up at -2.5 anyway, and books on the hook for a lot of coin. I doubt it would have been +3 cause that would have brought middles into play.
FLA/LSU is a similar story - it seems like books trying to get anyone to back FLA. I don't think it is the case - books think that LSU is 2 TD better than FLA at home this week.
I'm not sure I've ever seen an offensive line get abused as badly as UVA's did in the 2nd half against Notre Dame. Obviously Miami is not Notre Dame but I think the reason UVA isn't favored is as simple as the fact that they are on the road with an offensive line that ranks at the bottom of the FBS in sacks allowed and rushing yards.
i think anyone who gambles looks at a primetime game with a home fav against a ranked opponent and says "bet the home team" just based on traps, vegas knows, etc. i at least feel that way. i look at the game and i think virginia, i look at the line and think miami. my problem is miami has burned me so many times in this spot. i have zero faith in the hurricanes. nothing yet, lean over since although the offensive line is average for virginia the mobility at qb should create some big plays
