Just for fun...picks from a non gamblers view

[BowlMeOne]

Talk to an NBA avid fan daily. He knows nothing of gambling. Has no clue of what the lines are. He gave me his picks today..with final scores. I matched them up with the lines..and here's the plays that it produced. Just thought it would be funny to see what he came up with.


Den +3.5
Den Under 200.5

Min -6.5

Cle -6.5
Cle Under 184

Ny +3
Ny OVER 178

Chi +9
Under 182.5

No +5
Over 178

Atl +12
OVER 176.5

Spurs -11
OVER 191

Suns -12
OVER 207.5



he had Den, Chi, Ny, and NO winning outright...so ML plays there as well


lets see how he does.

 

[MadCapper]

Should be interesting.

 

[BowlMeOne]

Yea, we'll see. I didn't put up Mia/Was game cuz he said Mia would win 101-99....so it was right on pace with lines. Twolves total he nailed at 196.

 

[MadCapper]

How does he do it? Does he know anything bout gambling at all? Does he seem real sharp to you?

 

[BowlMeOne]

No, he's just a huge NBA fan. He watches as many games as he can, reads NBA.com daily. Just a huge hoops fan. So i like to get insight from someone away from the gambling end of it. Sometimes they can see more clearly. LOL.

Looks like he's gonna go 3-1 on ML dogs..with the other losing by a point.

Eh, like i said...its just for fun.

 

[BowlMeOne]

Not too bad. The funny part is, is that he told me he had one upset, which was the Hornets. Little did he realize that he picked 4 underdogs to win outright. 3 of them did, and the other lost by a point. Thats the reason i like to get his insight. I think alot of gamblers look at the lines first and are swayed by the line they see into who should win the game. When handicapping I think you should figure your matchups first, and come up with an expected outcome, and then match it up with lines. I'll continue to track his thoughts. I think the big favorites should be thrown out as well as totals. Value is in the dogs, especially when he dosen't know they are dogs.

 

[GameBreaker]

Good stuff here. I like the angle, it seems very logical. Thanks for the info

 

[MadCapper]

show us more.

 

[BowlMeOne]

Today his picks would be:

Cle +5.5
Chi +2
Sac -7.5

he had Cle and Chi winning outright

Cle +195
Chi +120


now remember he has no clue about lines...he just gives me his thoughts on a final score.

 

[BowlMeOne]

Had u played all of his picks day 1, including money lines you would have made 6.95 units assuming -110 on sides and totals. I'll track him for awhile. I would assume that like most squares he would lean to big favorites and overs..so i would think those plays would turn out to be useless, but possibly a subset of throwing those out and concentrating on whats left could be interesting.


time will tell

 

[torquas]

belive me he will do well..actually will be +..if u go on ML..

i actually do this also..buy the points..at most and make my best pick @1,25..not do it regularly..

and i play 4 times my regular unit..

1 unit is 1 unit..

bestof luck..

 

[BowlMeOne]

Had u played all the plays so far you would have lost 1 unit yesterday so you'd be at 5.95 units. Throwing out totals and favorites you would be at +9.75 units. I'm still gonna post all of the plays where his final score would be say 3 pts to the better of betting lines. I would focus just on dogs, but i'll post them all.

For Friday:

Knicks +2

Raptors +3.5

Jazz +6

Nets +9.5

Spurs -13

Knicks ML +115
Raptors ML +145
Nets ML +370

 

[cd329]

Hey BasesWiz,
you mean there is really people out there who follow sports daily and dont bet?
why? Man if i wasnt betting, i would careless about sports and all these spoiled millionaire athletes.
good luck with the new idea thou, hope it makes you some cash

 

[BowlMeOne]

I hear ya, since the departure of MJ the only interest i take in NBA is for betting. It just interesting how i've heard many people say when they are NOT gambling..how easy it seems. When you are checking the lines each day and making wagers its so different than when you are just watching games. Entirely different prosepective. Just interesting to see how someone that has no clue whatsoever about gambling would do.

 

[cd329]

3-2 not bad, would take 3-2 everyday for the rest of my life, lol.

 

[BowlMeOne]

Actually he was 4-1 on sides and 1-2 on the ML plays. Again assuming 1 unit per play you would have picked up another 2.05 units tonight. Overall +8 units counting all plays for 1 unit.

 

[BowlMeOne]

His picks would only warrent two plays today:



Det -8

Mil -5

like i said...im really not interested in his chalk picks..but i'll continue to list them.

 

[BowlMeOne]

sorry, lil late for Monday...he wasnt around yesterdayMonday his thoughts would come up with following picks:

Utah +6.5
Utah ML +260

Bulls +2
Bulls ML +115

Houston -8.5

thats it for today

 

[_wheredatreezat]

Interesting thread...

 

[BowlMeOne]

5-0 tonight...lol

so far 1 unit on all plays +12.55 units