Just as I suspected Tua will be out this week. MSST was+19.5

[Codebreaker]

Seeing Tua hobble around after LSU Blowout, it was obvious Bama rushed him into that game. He was gimpy before the game. Foot and ankle surgery is tricky, so many interconnected parts. All 220 lbs of mass is focused in that small area. Add sharp cuts, stopping and starting, throwing the ball with a peak athlete. If you drill down more, its even more focused on the area around the big toe/foot. The point of contact with earth and all of its gravitational energy. That's why Les Franc injuries and turf toe can end athletic careers

I teased MSST +25 and the under up to 68. MSST is not very good this year, at least up to their standards. Its a road game for Bama, Saben should play conservatively and run the ball. Grind out a win vs MSST, very few big plays down field limiting the total. With AUB coming up in a few weeks I would not be surprised if Tua sits out til AUB.

2 game college teasers are a gold mine. Vegas spends many millions of dollars a year setting spreads. Most of you have no idea what skew, Standard deviation or kurtosis is. Vegas strives to get skew as close to zero as possible with the spread they generate. They move skew by allowing the spread to change with public interest, news, ect.

By teasing the spread +-7 you are directly controlling the bands of probability around the spread Vegas invests 100 mil a year in generating. Add +7 to a road dog like LSU, was free money in Bama game. +14 was never challenged in that game by Bama.

 

[Codebreaker]

MSU vs Mich

MSU +13.5 how about teasing MSU up to +20.5 and teasing the over up to 51. Seems like a defensive struggle is MSU's only chance to get this into the 4th Q for a chance to beat it's hated rival.

Yes, MSU is not very good but Michigan is hated to the core. Michigan has seemed to have found a little more offense. Will MSU have a greater motivation to play defense? Defense is 95% desire and 5% wanting to. Tackling is about wanting to, it hurts especially in the cold.

MSU has outside chance at Bowl, more motivation to shed blocks and make tackles?

 

[Cheddar]

By teasing the spread +-7 you are directly controlling the bands of probability around the spread Vegas invests 100 mil a year in generating. Add +7 to a road dog like LSU, was free money in Bama game. +14 was never challenged in that game by Bama.

Don't you think Vegas made some money on that game with people teasing Alabama to basically a pick em game with the impressive stats that Bama had at home straight up in addition to most people love to play the favorites?

 

[bigwang]

Cfb teasers are a goldmine.......for the books. No oddsmakers factor teaser protection in on ncaaf. They are considered dead money.

 

[Codebreaker]

Yes, folks lost heavy on Bama -7, Id say the pool of capital waged at -7 dwarfed the pool wagered as a tease PK. LSU routed Bama so badly the -7 was never ahead in the black. At least the PK was in play right on the kickoff. Yes you need to know something about the teams whether you tease or play straight spread.

Teasing only allows you to bet in the tail of the distribution vs the middle. If you are a Bama better in that game you were screwed no matter that you did, ML Tease, no tease. If you could not see LSU was the much better bet, maybe you should stop betting and take up driving an Uber. I was preaching LSU all week long, can't blame me and certainly not the tease.

 

[LSUpete]

I disagree with the Miss. State wager.

LSU beat them by 23
Auburn beat them by 33
A$M beat them by 19

Bama is going to lay it on State this weekend with or without Tua because State won't be able to score on them.

 

[fballgenius]

I disagree with the Miss. State wager.

LSU beat them by 23
Auburn beat them by 33
A$M beat them by 19

Bama is going to lay it on State this weekend with or without Tua because State won't be able to score on them.

Thassit!

 

[Codebreaker]

Yes I agree MSST is not very good, logic would dictate Bama hammers them this week. But, I have to say that LSU loss, at home plus losing their star QB is going to have an effect. Someone posted Sabem was like 1-12, ATS after a loss. I did not know Bama has even lost 12 games. I don't like stats like those, because they don't correlate to any of the current players. Saben is the constant so maybe losses effect his mentality.

If Bama scores 50 and MSST zero so be it, getting hammered by LSU, losing Tua, and being knocked out of playoffs, were just a flesh wound