Well my friend..... I can assure you that it works for me. Baseball bettors tend to overvalue recent trends especially with starting pitchers. You seem so confident that I am wrong but you don't know my results. I understand there are lots of different methods for betting baseball...... I was only pointing out one possible angle. I like traditional handicapping as well. Sometimes my own handicapping analysis disagrees very strongly with my models. For the record my system thinks the Giants are valued about right today.
There are different ways to do things but to say that statistical analysis can not make money is just plain false as it has been producing for me for many years. I agree as well that there are things that can not be adequately measured with stats..... that is why I am also always arguing with the sabermetric guys who ignore what is obvious because they cannot quantify it with their stats (stuff like lineup protection and batting order just to name a couple).
But it is hardly an outrageous statement to say that the "public" tends to overvalue whatever just happened over longer term trends...... and I make an OK living based on that.
Yea that is a fair point and I do think it was very relevant stat for this game. It was not my intention to diminish your post. In general I have found that the market tends to overvalue the quality of the starting pitcher on the outcome of the game and that tends to create opportunities in the line. In this case it seems like the market was maybe putting a lot of emphasis on the recent struggles of the Giants meaning the line was not particularly overvalued on the Giants side.
In general betting against trends that the "public" likes to play can be a profitable strategy...... I am certainly not he only person who believes this.
I dont think my strategies are the only good ones however...... I just find some that work for me. In sports betting there are so many variables that interact with each other that I dont think any one person can say they are 100% correct about an ideal approach.
