Jesus Christ!!! UFC giving away free money on 12/10 with Kennedy? What in the hell is this?

[RunMaker]

<small>UFC 206 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Air Canada Centre - Toronto, Canada - PPV</small>

Sat 12/10		1301 Kelvin Gastelum		<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4"> +140	<input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4"> o2½ -185
10:31PM		1302 Tim Kennedy		<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4"> -160	<input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4"> u2½ +160

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This is probably the best UFC bet I've ever seen.

Gastelum unprofessionally did not make weight in New York, and so they've rotated him over to the Toronto card along with Kennedy. This may not be correct, but this seems like a punishment for Gastelum; ie, we're giving you a fight for your lazy, fat ass but you're going up in weight class and you're going to have to face Kennedy.

Gastelum himself said that he doesn't want to fight at this weight class b/c he's not good enough to beat guys like Rockhold, Weiderman, Romero, Bisping, etc. And it's 100% correct. That's why he competes (or tries to) at 170 b/c he can't beat the bigger dudes. Bisping walks around at 205 to 210 lbs, but dips for the weigh-ins... like everybody else.

Kennedy is a legit 220 and is jacked like Romero. Gastelum's chances of beating Kennedy are about the same as his chances of beating Romero -- fucking slim to none.

It's just the case of a different man size.

 

[Hamilbet]

-150 at my shop

 

[THawk+]

So I don't know UFC but for watching it once in a while out for the night.

This is that much of a mismatch for Kennedy?

May put a couple of bucks on him..

thanks for the info

 

[tyme9999]

Like it also... Guy should make,weight....

 

[RunMaker]

Down to -155.... but this means nothing, IMO. This is a slam dunk even if it goes to decision.

Kennedy was as good as or better when he faced Romero, Bisping and Rockhold. Probably not there with Rockhold, but he is 100% legit and a serious contender.

If Gastelum is permanently booked for this division as White alluded, then this is the beginning of the end of the career for Gastelum. This really is a perfectly timed opportunity... right before a guy goes crashing into obscurity. All the signs are there and Gastelum will likely be devastated. Loading up on ice cream and potato chips before the biggest event in New York was a bad idea... if you know what I mean.

Seems like a likeable guy, but it is what it is. Kennedy easy winner.

 

[RunMaker]

Down to -145.

Not a shadow of doubt in my mind for Kennedy. They got the odds all wrong.

 

[RunMaker]

Down to -140.

Kennedy looks ripped and jacked. Gastelum looks fat.

 

[MattyMatt]

Down to -130 and -135 at the outlets here.

 

[RunMaker]

Unless there's some kind of "near game-day" injury from Kennedy... I still 100% believe this is a slammer.

Gastelum would be throttled by Rockhold, Wiedman, Romero, Bisping....

Kennedy may lay on top of Gastelum for all the rounds, but he's still winning.

 

[RunMaker]

In retrospect McGregor was easy, easy over Alvarez. I could not have seen foreseen such an easy victory...

... anyways, in my mind, this match is the same kind of deal as McG > Alvarez as far as a clear-cut victory. Kennedy winner. Worst-case scenario is a decision.

Gastelum just not in his league.

 

[wizardofodd]

why do you think the line move/drop?

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Kennedy faaaaaaar from free money vs. Gastelum

 

[NewYorkKnight]

why do you think the line move/drop?

Lots of cash coming in the past couple days are on Kelvin

Yesterday at 2 separate Popular books in Vegas ... (1) $3K bet and (1) $2,500 wager ... those are rather large bets for UFC

 

[NewYorkKnight]

CG Technology has taken a handful of large bets on Gastelum from sharp MMA bettors since Tuesday.

 

[MattyMatt]

Kennedy faaaaaaar from free money vs. Gastelum

I agree. Coming off a long layoff as well, along with preparing to fight just a couple weeks ago, only for Evans to pull out last minute. It could help a fighter, but hurt also in getting worked up and anxious to fight, only to peak at the wrong time. These guys have also trained with each other a good bit in the past, so that could play a factor. On and on and on...I lean Kennedy as well, but this fight has decision written all over it and is far from a beat down for Kennedy (wouldn't mind seeing it though). Good luck and enjoy...

 

[PatsFan1283]

Not free money but I agree with RunMaker on Kennedy having some value. As long as the ring rust isn't too bad he should be able to control the fight.

Gastalum usually just grinds guys down and wins rds that way but Kennedy shouldn't have a problem with his physicality and pressure-style.

You can get -135 at BM right now.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Also have to factor in Kennedy's motivation.

He is at the very end of his MMA career ... any run up the Middleweight ladder is a total longshot win / lose or draw Saturday night.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Also have to factor in Kennedy's motivation.

He is at the very end of his MMA career ... any run up the Middleweight ladder is a total longshot win / lose or draw Saturday night.

I dunno, if Bisping is champ then I'm sure him and several others have to be thinking anything is possible.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Apples and oranges


Bisping got a big push from UFC / Dana ... Kennedy isn't getting that.

Also Kennedy has work / career outside the cage ... 90%+ fighters don't have that and are forced to fight till the wheels fall off for income

 

[RunMaker]

Also have to factor in Kennedy's motivation.

He is at the very end of his MMA career ... any run up the Middleweight ladder is a total longshot win / lose or draw Saturday night.

Kennedy's motivation? The guy is a super jacked guy like Romero. Just naturally a freak. He really has to dip to make weight b/c he is a Goliath for his height. Gastelum had all the motivation in the world for the biggest fighting event in the history of the sport... and he fucking ate donuts. How is that for motivation?

Kennedy is a special ops guy who understands commitment and discipline. Gastelum understands .... well, donuts.

They face off at 1:18.

Kennedy looks at least 2 inches taller, just a bigger man... even though he is a bit emaciated here by his standards.