Jan 24 NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -160

[smartmoneyfollower]

Jan 24 NFL NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -160

Love the odds, NE will get even healthier with 7 days rest, Brady was sharp and I was impressed by the NE patchwork running backs .. I think the line will goto -4 or -5 by the end of the week. so I'm hitting it early.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Denver was at home last week and facing a team without their best O weapon, down to a rookie 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] string running back, off a bye week, facing a team playing their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in a row, missing 2 all stars from their line and the QB had a separated shoulder, and they were still down at halftime fuck you Denver. Their luck is going to run out next week, just like Seattle luck ran out vs the panthers. Brady is going to pick apart Denver defense who will be manhandled by the Pats offence. Denver only forced one turnover last game, and dropped multiple opportunities for ints Peyton Manning completed 21 of 37 passes for 222 yards in Sunday's win over the Steelers. He failed to connect on a single touchdown pass. B. Roethlisberger (24-37, 339). Jamie Collins Exited last weeks game with back injury.. Collins was one of three key New England defenders to not finish the game, with fellow LB Jerod Mayo (shoulder) and DE Chandler Jones (possible knee issue) also being forced out of the contest. As a result, look for the trio's practice participation this coming week to be impacted in advance of next weekend's AFC championship game.

 

[chonce]

I was persuaded b your logic. Just found a -158 and that is my play on this game -- 4.74 to win 3 units. I don't want to worry about the number 3 -- either buying off or on it, or trying to avoid it from entering the final score.

 

[chonce]

I would've bet 4 units, but I have a self-imposed rule of never wagering more than 4.8 units on a game (the equivalent of -120 on a 4 unit bet). So this is effectively a max bet for me.

 

[statman03]

home team in this series is 10/1 SU and 10/1 ATS.........NE is 3/13 SU at Denver in the last thirty years

 

[TheComputerGroup]

home team in this series is 10/1 SU and 10/1 ATS.........NE is 3/13 SU at Denver in the last thirty years

Thats why you named yourself Statman........lol!


Brady & Belichick are 3-0 since they teamed up vs #1 defenses in the playoffs........

 

[Cantpickem]

Denver was at home last week and facing a team without their best O weapon, down to a rookie 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] string running back, off a bye week, facing a team playing their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in a row, missing 2 all stars from their line and the QB had a separated shoulder, and they were still down at halftime fuck you Denver. Their luck is going to run out next week, just like Seattle luck ran out vs the panthers. Brady is going to pick apart Denver defense who will be manhandled by the Pats offence. Denver only forced one turnover last game, and dropped multiple opportunities for ints Peyton Manning completed 21 of 37 passes for 222 yards in Sunday's win over the Steelers. He failed to connect on a single touchdown pass. B. Roethlisberger (24-37, 339). Jamie Collins Exited last weeks game with back injury.. Collins was one of three key New England defenders to not finish the game, with fellow LB Jerod Mayo (shoulder) and DE Chandler Jones (possible knee issue) also being forced out of the contest. As a result, look for the trio's practice participation this coming week to be impacted in advance of next weekend's AFC championship game.

and NE faced a KC injured defensive front and an injured KC receiver

 

[chonce]

home team in this series is 10/1 SU and 10/1 ATS.........NE is 3/13 SU at Denver in the last thirty years

These trends go back decades. I don't think what happened between Steve Grogan and Dan Reeves in 1987 means a lick. Look at Brady's record vs Manning overall. Look at their record when Gronk, Edelman and Amendola are healthy (hint, they haven't lost). Honestly, why would events in 1987 matter. That was before Kraft, before Brady, before Manning, before free agency, before the salary cap, before the rule changes.

Denver and Manning beat NE, at home, in this game in 2013, but Talib and Gronk were out.

 

[statman03]

to each his own......but it goes to who these teams are.....last year Denver was eliminated by Indy.......Denver looked like a lock but Indy had covered 7 straight against Den and eliminated them as a 9.5 point road dog......teams are like people....they have personalities, habits, likes and dislikes and as George Santayana said....."Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

and NE faced a KC injured defensive front and an injured KC receiver

Cantpickem,

I would argue that NE had more injuries , they were just long term so they were not talked about as much .. and Brady picked apart a secondary in KC
that shut out Houston the week before.. You don't see a shut out in NFL football much. but they did it in the wildcard. Jeremy Maclin did not look injured to me. KC won 11 games in a row and they ran into a buzz saw called the pats. Denver has no running game and Payton no longer has the ability to throw the ball long.

 

[bones1980]

Kc won 11 games against shit teams!! Kc moved the ball pretty well against patriots last week. Denver will find the endzone 3 times

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Kc won 11 games against shit teams!! Kc moved the ball pretty well against patriots last week. Denver will find the endzone 3 times

One of the shit teams was The Steelers
One of the shit teams was Denver
One of the shit teams was The Texans
Three play off teams

 

[MedicalMaryJ]

Pats are WAY more healthy than last time they played them. BB will have a great gameplan for Manning. He can't throw downfield anymore, that's NE weakness on defense. He can't exploit their weakness, while the Pats WRs constantly make Denver CB/ safety combo ward and Harris their daddy. Can't go large though. I can see refs calling a lot of Pass inference of the offense, Gronk pushed off a lot I can see them making this game closer than it should. Pats win though.

 

[varkeyboy]

One of the shit teams was The Steelers
One of the shit teams was Denver
One of the shit teams was The Texans
Three play off teams

LOL.......

I'd say Patriots or just lay off. Or the OVER =)

 

[MantisToboggan]

One of the shit teams was The Steelers
One of the shit teams was Denver
One of the shit teams was The Texans
Three play off teams

I'm also on NE, but the Steelers with Landry Jones is hardly a quality win.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

The Patriots’ Offensive Line has been a trouble spot for the Patriots all season. The unit was plagued by injuries, and the Patriots used 13 starting offensive line combinations. This line is healed and will have enough bodies to rotate in and out of the game, The pats have put their money at outside lineman to protect Brady due to his lack of mobility and when he can step into the pocket and throw , he picks apart defenses. Brady was sacked 38 times this season, the third-highest total of his career.

Against Kansas City, the offensive line did not allow Brady to be sacked or even remotely pressured, mainly because Brady got rid of the ball in a hurry. He threw 42 passes. The team ran the ball only 14 times; six of the rushes were by Brady.

Brady is getting the ball out in less than 2 seconds. No pass rush in the world is fast enough to nullify that. And with Patriots' Danny Amendola: Listed as questionable for Sunday's game , broncos only have two good cover men, throwing Amendola is way too much for Denver to handle and with . Chris Harris (shoulder) a game-time decision for Sunday's AFC Championship game according to GM John Elway and Omar Bolden: Out for season.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

too much line movement buying 75% of my bet back at -155 at my local . still like the pats but I fear line movement late

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

Ward should have been ejected from the game for that helmut leading hit on a defenseless receiver

 

[statman03]

Well we can chalk another one up to a thirty year old trend......I can see why people would not believe they work.......but I will just say that they do....I use them all the time.........scoff at your loss

 

[PrinceoftheCity]

Pats ML was a good pick (not even sarcastic). IF you took Pats ML, and I told you you'd lose due to a Gostkowski missed XP you would call me crazy. The 0.000001% happened, unfortunate.