Jake's Winning College Football Picks - Week One (WITH A GUARANTEE)

[JakeT.]

I'm so confident that I'll win money this college football season that I'll let one lucky RXer taze me at next year's bash. :toast:
How's that for confidence.

Anyway, picks coming throughout the next week.

<img src="http://www.hunterindustries.com/Images/Resources/Library/Business/OS19096_web.jpg">

 

[JakeT.]

Oh and also...

<img src="http://www.sportsevents.net/ncaa/basketball/images/boise_state_broncos.jpg">

 

[JakeT.]

And one of these too. We're kinda dating.

<img src="http://www.celebslap.com/photos/Jessica%20Alba%20bikini%20of%20jubi.jpg">

 

[JakeT.]

Gonna do at least the games for the 3rd right now. As you guys know I cap every single game on the college football schedule each week. I only plan on posting thoughts about the games I choose to bet unless anyone asks (feel free).

Beyond that, best of luck to everyone this year.

 

[JakeT.]

One more thing to add as I write all this crap. The format I use is to post my personally set lines. These are not what I'd set as a bookmaker. Obviously public opinion and a probable will to balance money and all that other crap would be in those. Mine are just what I think the line should be without stupid public factors and such. If the actual line is far enough off from my personal line, I'll bet it. Any other questions, just ask.

 

[JakeT.]

Five lined games on the card for September 3rd.

My personal lines:

Troy -3.5, O/U 57
South Carolina -7, O/U 41
Ball State -10, O/U 50
Utah -20, O/U 54
Oregon -1, O/U 61

Bets and why:

Bowling Green Falcons +6.5 -110

This isn't my favorite Thursday bet but it makes the cut. Troy only has 4 guys back on defense and lost their most experienced secondary guy to academics. Troy's offense will still be there and should put up around 30 but Bowling Green can match them despite learning a new offense. 7 starters are back including the senior quarterback and I like the Falcons to keep this one close in their home opener.

South Carolina Gamecocks +4 -110

N.C. State is quite a bit improved and the South Carolina offense is going to be a problem in the early going but this line still seems way off considering the 34-0 drubbing the Gamecocks put on N.C. State last year. USC might be down a bit but they still have a very good defense and the recruits are simply more talented than what the Wolfpack can put on the field.

North Texas Mean Green +17.5 -110
North Texas/Ball St Under 59.5 -110

North Texas only won a single game last season but they should improve a ton on defense while their offense also takes a big step forward. They have an experienced and talented QB at the helm (the coaches son and a top QB recruit who played in this offense in high school) and 16 starters back from last year. Ball State is working with some new coaches (especially on defense) and the loss of Nate Davis and only having 4 starters back on offense will hold them back a bit in the opening games. North Texas should cover this number. Maybe even an outright shocker. Defenses are also ahead of the offenses early and both teams bring back experience.

Oregon Ducks +5 -110

I hate to go against my Broncos in this game but it's pretty much a tossup situation and it's a long term profitable situation to get 5 points in a game like this. Oregon is less experienced but Boise doesn't bring a ton of guys back either. The Ducks will always have an explosive offense and this game is going to go back and forth with both teams moving the ball. Oregon is more talented while Boise is at home. Who knows. I'll root for a 3-point Boise State victory.

 

[billbeater]

Love the Avatar and the plays. Go get em Jake! <><>

 

[JakeT.]

Love the Avatar and the plays. Go get em Jake! <><>

Cheers man. Best of luck.

 

[jimmymo]

Love the Avatar and the plays. Go get em Jake! <><>

Fu*k the avatar and the plays, love the girlfriend.....GL Jake.

 

[Buckeyemac]

I've got a lean on Bowling Green and have already played the "Mean Green"
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac

 

[JakeT.]

Haha thanks fellas. I'll have Friday's lone lined game up within the hour if anyone is eagerly anticipating it.

 

[JakeT.]

And by "within the next hour" I mean now.

 

[JakeT.]

Tulsa @ Tulane is our only lined game for Friday.

My personal line:

Tulsa -14, O/U 60

Bets and why:

None. Because the lines are good.

 

[lax_gunman]

GL Jake, hope all your hard work pays off.

 

[stander]

On the Oregon trail with you. Personally, no play for me on the NCSU game but you might have a bit of luck with USC since the 'pack are going to be playing 2 QBs. If not for Wilson and the MLB thing, I'd have to be on NCSU.

See birdieman's thread and USC_thereal's comments: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=702136

BOL with your other picks. Made money last season betting against the Mean Green but they should be able to put up points and this year's Ball State team is only an echo of last year's... Don't know a lot about Troy or BGSU...

BOL for a great season.

Stander

 

[JakeT.]

GL Jake, hope all your hard work pays off.

I'm confident it will. Have a great season.

 

[JakeT.]

On the Oregon trail with you. Personally, no play for me on the NCSU game but you might have a bit of luck with USC since the 'pack are going to be playing 2 QBs. If not for Wilson and the MLB thing, I'd have to be on NCSU.

See birdieman's thread and USC_thereal's comments: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=702136

BOL with your other picks. Made money last season betting against the Mean Green but they should be able to put up points and this year's Ball State team is only an echo of last year's... Don't know a lot about Troy or BGSU...

BOL for a great season.

Stander

I checked out the thread and you make some valid points but I just don't think N.C. State has improved enough to take on a team as skilled as USC at this point. I think NC will have a nice season though. Best of luck to you as well.

 

[JakeT.]

Will do a few games while dinner cooks. This is for Saturday action.

My personal lines:

Purdue -18*, O/U 50
Penn State -31, O/U 58
Ohio State -24, O/U 44

*Laying off Purdue -11. The line has been steamed from -14 to -11 and just doesn't feel right. Toledo has a lot of guys back but just aren't as skilled as Purdue. That being said, both teams have new schemes so it could be a big equalizer with the new coaching. I just don't feel comfortable taking this one.

Bets and why:

None. Don't like any of these 3.

 

[JakeT.]

Record for my last 4 years (all I've kept track of) in college football... I barely played anything in 2 of those 4 seasons (or at least posted anything for tracking) so I expect to win more than the 17 unit average or whatever that comes out to per year.

Overall Record: 320-263 (54.8%) +66.08 Units
2-UNIT PLAYS: 59-30 (66.3%)

 

[JakeT.]

And the best part about this thread is that I won't go tout and I could care less how much shit you give me for my ego. So flame away if you feel like it.