Horrible week last time out. Sorry about that guys. Looking back at my losing bets, roughly 75% of them are on road favorites so I'm going to do away with those bets for the rest of the year. They are the only reason I am not dominating this season and for whatever reason my numbers just don't see to give enough credit to the home team sometimes. Road dogs are doing just fine but road favorites that I think should be able to cover larger numbers just don't get the job done.
Anyway...
Overall Record: 52-46 (53.1%) +.9 Units
2-UNIT PLAYS: 8-6 (57.1%)
Going to be more selective on my bets this weekend. Will add them in this post as always as I handicap the games.
Florida State/N.C. State Over 47.5 -110
Florida State is getting incredible offensive line play thanks to WVU O-line coach Trickett and as a result they are running for huge gains and putting up big points. If Miami can't stop the Seminoles you can expect a horrible run D like the Wolfpack have won't be the answer to FSU's offensive riddle. The Seminoles should score close to 40 by themselves. N.C. State has been horrible on offense this season thanks to quarterback Harrison Beck not grasping Tom O'Brien's offense but Russell Wilson (an O'Brien recruit for this offense) has came in and looked incredible and the Wolfpack have been scoring with him at the helm. Florida State scores and the Wolfpack score enough with Wilson at the helm to put this one over the total.
Hawaii +25.5 -110
Hawaii/Boise State Over 51 -110
I love the Broncos but their defense has been getting lucky breaks all season long and the new Hawaii offense is finally starting to get together. Boise's offense struggles with the run more than usual this season and it holds down the points they can score. Hawaii can score enough points here to keep it close.
Wisconsin +3.5 -110
Iowa is a much better team than they have shown and it appears the linesmakers are onto the same thing I was talking about last week but this has all the making of a tight game that is decided by a field goal. Both teams have balanced offenses with questionable QB play (edge to Wisky at QB) and above average defenses. Iowa's home field makes up for the passing edge the Badgers have but it doesn't mean they should be favored by 3.5.
Miami OH +9.5 -110
Bowling Green is a good team and all but Miami OH has a competent offense and a defense that can slow down Bowling Green's offense enough to make this a tight game. +9.5 is too many points.
Memphis +9 -110
East Carolina doesn't defend passing teams that well. They can stop the run but struggle against open offenses and that is what Memphis can bring here. East Carolina's offense will score plenty of points too but I don't see them getting enough stops or having enough of a quality defense to cover this big number.
Purdue +4 -110
I think Purdue's offense is a tick better and these teams are close on defense which makes this game a pick em with Northwestern at home. Getting 4 points in what should be a close game is too many.
South Florida -24 -110
I think Syracuse is going to be a nice ATS team the rest of the year but this is the worst possible matchup for them. They are getting their running game going but South Florida simply shuts down running teams. Syracuse can't stop the run and South Florida scores a ton when they can run for big chunks. This has blowout written all over but keep an eye on Syracuse the rest of the season because they can run on some teams and stay in the game with the clock constantly running.
Iowa State +6.5 -110
Nebraska has a nice offense but their defense is not impressive at all and Iowa State has a nice and balanced offense that can score enough to keep this game close. Cyclones may even pull off the upset.
Southern Miss +3.5 -110
Both Southern Miss and Rice can score a ton of points here and neither will stop the other that often. This is anyone's game so taking the 3.5 points makes sense.
Baylor +17 -110
Oklahoma State has an awesome offense that will put up points but Baylor's offense is kicking ass too and the Oklahoma State defense has enough holes to make this a close game. Baylor is running an offense very similar to Houston's and the Houston Cougars put up 37 on Okie State earlier this season. This is a high-scoring game where Baylor has a chance to win outright and shock the world.
UCONN/Rutgers Under 44 -110
Wake Forest/Maryland Under 43 -110
Southern Miss/Rice Over 68.5 -110
Alabama/Ole Miss Over 49.5 -110
Alabama can score on anyone but the bookies are underestimating how overrated the Alabama defense is right now. They are a very good unit but not as good as they have played and Ole Miss has an offense that can score points on anyone.
Michigan State +3.5 -110
Ohio State's offense is simply not working right now. I have no idea why, but it's not working. Getting the home team with a balanced offense and solid defense +3.5 points in what should be a low-scoring game... it's just very nice value.
Louisville -14 -110
Louisville/Mid Tenn State Over 48 -110
Louisville's offense is finally clicking and they can hit 48 by themselves here while Mid Tenn State can't score many points because of their poor offense.
To be honest, this line is so far off that I want to make a big bet with it but it's extremely fishy the line moved the other way off the opener. Something strange is going on here so I'm just going to play it for the regular amount.
UAB +2.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
UAB should be favored in this one. They have the offense to score on Marshall and I'm not sure the Thundering Herd have the weapons to keep up. At the very worst, the Blazers should be favored by around a TD so the line value is amazing.
Nevada -21 -110
Utah State is going to get ran over here. Nevada can name their score. The Utah State offense is crap and can't score, much less on the road in a conference game. Nevada covers this sucker.
New Mexico/San Diego State Under 44.5 -110
Troy -8 -110
North Texas +18.5 -110
Anyway...
Overall Record: 52-46 (53.1%) +.9 Units
2-UNIT PLAYS: 8-6 (57.1%)
Going to be more selective on my bets this weekend. Will add them in this post as always as I handicap the games.
Florida State/N.C. State Over 47.5 -110
Florida State is getting incredible offensive line play thanks to WVU O-line coach Trickett and as a result they are running for huge gains and putting up big points. If Miami can't stop the Seminoles you can expect a horrible run D like the Wolfpack have won't be the answer to FSU's offensive riddle. The Seminoles should score close to 40 by themselves. N.C. State has been horrible on offense this season thanks to quarterback Harrison Beck not grasping Tom O'Brien's offense but Russell Wilson (an O'Brien recruit for this offense) has came in and looked incredible and the Wolfpack have been scoring with him at the helm. Florida State scores and the Wolfpack score enough with Wilson at the helm to put this one over the total.
Hawaii +25.5 -110
Hawaii/Boise State Over 51 -110
I love the Broncos but their defense has been getting lucky breaks all season long and the new Hawaii offense is finally starting to get together. Boise's offense struggles with the run more than usual this season and it holds down the points they can score. Hawaii can score enough points here to keep it close.
Wisconsin +3.5 -110
Iowa is a much better team than they have shown and it appears the linesmakers are onto the same thing I was talking about last week but this has all the making of a tight game that is decided by a field goal. Both teams have balanced offenses with questionable QB play (edge to Wisky at QB) and above average defenses. Iowa's home field makes up for the passing edge the Badgers have but it doesn't mean they should be favored by 3.5.
Miami OH +9.5 -110
Bowling Green is a good team and all but Miami OH has a competent offense and a defense that can slow down Bowling Green's offense enough to make this a tight game. +9.5 is too many points.
Memphis +9 -110
East Carolina doesn't defend passing teams that well. They can stop the run but struggle against open offenses and that is what Memphis can bring here. East Carolina's offense will score plenty of points too but I don't see them getting enough stops or having enough of a quality defense to cover this big number.
Purdue +4 -110
I think Purdue's offense is a tick better and these teams are close on defense which makes this game a pick em with Northwestern at home. Getting 4 points in what should be a close game is too many.
South Florida -24 -110
I think Syracuse is going to be a nice ATS team the rest of the year but this is the worst possible matchup for them. They are getting their running game going but South Florida simply shuts down running teams. Syracuse can't stop the run and South Florida scores a ton when they can run for big chunks. This has blowout written all over but keep an eye on Syracuse the rest of the season because they can run on some teams and stay in the game with the clock constantly running.
Iowa State +6.5 -110
Nebraska has a nice offense but their defense is not impressive at all and Iowa State has a nice and balanced offense that can score enough to keep this game close. Cyclones may even pull off the upset.
Southern Miss +3.5 -110
Both Southern Miss and Rice can score a ton of points here and neither will stop the other that often. This is anyone's game so taking the 3.5 points makes sense.
Baylor +17 -110
Oklahoma State has an awesome offense that will put up points but Baylor's offense is kicking ass too and the Oklahoma State defense has enough holes to make this a close game. Baylor is running an offense very similar to Houston's and the Houston Cougars put up 37 on Okie State earlier this season. This is a high-scoring game where Baylor has a chance to win outright and shock the world.
UCONN/Rutgers Under 44 -110
Wake Forest/Maryland Under 43 -110
Southern Miss/Rice Over 68.5 -110
Alabama/Ole Miss Over 49.5 -110
Alabama can score on anyone but the bookies are underestimating how overrated the Alabama defense is right now. They are a very good unit but not as good as they have played and Ole Miss has an offense that can score points on anyone.
Michigan State +3.5 -110
Ohio State's offense is simply not working right now. I have no idea why, but it's not working. Getting the home team with a balanced offense and solid defense +3.5 points in what should be a low-scoring game... it's just very nice value.
Louisville -14 -110
Louisville/Mid Tenn State Over 48 -110
Louisville's offense is finally clicking and they can hit 48 by themselves here while Mid Tenn State can't score many points because of their poor offense.
To be honest, this line is so far off that I want to make a big bet with it but it's extremely fishy the line moved the other way off the opener. Something strange is going on here so I'm just going to play it for the regular amount.
UAB +2.5 -110 (2-UNIT PLAY)
UAB should be favored in this one. They have the offense to score on Marshall and I'm not sure the Thundering Herd have the weapons to keep up. At the very worst, the Blazers should be favored by around a TD so the line value is amazing.
Nevada -21 -110
Utah State is going to get ran over here. Nevada can name their score. The Utah State offense is crap and can't score, much less on the road in a conference game. Nevada covers this sucker.
New Mexico/San Diego State Under 44.5 -110
Troy -8 -110
North Texas +18.5 -110
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