Jacksonville +3

[C-Gold]

To spare you the long write up, here are some bullet points why you take the Jags +3



The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last meeting
Jacksonville is a live dog
Jacksonville is a dog on national TV
Houston will be more likely to turn the ball over


The biggest key to betting Jacksonville, is finding out whether or not David Garrard will be a game manager or a QB. Against strong defenses and strong run defenses he doesn't have that luxary. I think facing a weak Houston run D that gives up an average of 4.5 per carry will allow him to succeed.

In the last head to head matchup, the Jags won by 3.

The other most similar team to Houston that Jacksonville faced was Denver @ Denver and they won 24-17. The game should be tight, Jacksonville honestly probably has a better than 50% chance of winning ( although not too high), but when you factor in the 3 points, I'd say this pick hits at over 60% of the time. In fact, the dog in the series is 6-2.


Jacksonville's D could be fired up early with all their turnmoil, and Houston loves to run misdirection in that Denver Shanny, Alex Gibbs, Kubiak style they run.

In the last matchup MJD didn't get many carries ( although he did well), but I'd expect 100+ from him and the W tonight.

The biggest factor to me is that...
- David Garrad won't have to be a QB when HOU gives up 4.5 per run
- Rosenfelds/Schaub will be more turnover prone than Garrard


Jax + 3
GL

 

[theDonger]

To spare you the long write up, here are some bullet points why you take the Jags +3



The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last meeting
Jacksonville is a live dog
Jacksonville is a dog on national TV
Houston will be more likely to turn the ball over


The biggest key to betting Jacksonville, is finding out whether or not David Garrard will be a game manager or a QB. Against strong defenses and strong run defenses he doesn't have that luxary. I think facing a weak Houston run D that gives up an average of 4.5 per carry will allow him to succeed.

In the last head to head matchup, the Jags won by 3.

The other most similar team to Houston that Jacksonville faced was Denver @ Denver and they won 24-17. The game should be tight, Jacksonville honestly probably has a better than 50% chance of winning ( although not too high), but when you factor in the 3 points, I'd say this pick hits at over 60% of the time. In fact, the dog in the series is 6-2.


Jacksonville's D could be fired up early with all their turnmoil, and Houston loves to run misdirection in that Denver Shanny, Alex Gibbs, Kubiak style they run.

In the last matchup MJD didn't get many carries ( although he did well), but I'd expect 100+ from him and the W tonight.

The biggest factor to me is that...
- David Garrad won't have to be a QB when HOU gives up 4.5 per run
- Rosenfelds/Schaub will be more turnover prone than Garrard


Jax + 3
GL

I'm actually starting to lean this way-- my local has it at +3.5

 

[C-Gold]

Hit it....


If David Garrard is playing Pitt, Tenn, Minn etc. he will look like dog shit. He can't drop back over and over and throw darts and beat you.

If David Garrard is handing it off to MJD and Taylor who are grinding it out with 4-5 yard runs, with the play action pass mixed in there, he can keep drives going.

Houston gives up 4.5 yards per carry.

The Jags defense isn't what it was last year, but Houston is still more turnover prone in this game.

 

[C-Gold]

Oh, and here is a stat you might like...



Houston is 1-4 ATS at home
The Jags are 3-2 on the road ATS

 

[woodypaige]

Jacksonville's D could be fired up early with all their turnmoil, and Houston loves to run misdirection in that Denver Shanny, Alex Gibbs, Kubiak style they run.




GL

Jacksonville has always had the reputation of having a tremendous spot unit, but they come into tonight with a poor #14 ranking versus the pass and #19 against the run. The Jaguars stop-unit suffered a major blow when defensive leader (tackle) Marcus Stroud was lost with a season-ending injury. I am sure most of you have heard about the problems of lead linebacker Mike Peterson who was SUSPENDED for one game due to insubordination and also at one point was lowered to just being a reserve player. Bottom line - the game will be determined by how good Jacks defense plays on the road.

Goodluck tonight Buddy

 

[YankeesRule]

jags +3 and under 49 for me.

 

[TheWolf]

Without reading any of what you wrote I agree with Jax +4 (at 5D).

 

[C-Gold]

woody


Marcus Stroud plays for Buffalo.
Mike Peterson was benched last week, he is back this week.

 

[C-Gold]

Without reading any of what you wrote I agree with Jax +4 (at 5D).

Why not read what I wrote...


IT'S FREE!!!:toast:

 

[theDonger]

Another angle. I know my local has it at 3.5, but most online shops I see have it at -3 -120/-125/-130 What does that tell you?

Does that mean the books want Houston money with a higher vig? Does it mean they think jacksonville wins? I dunno, but I'm leaning to Jacksonville on this one for sure.

 

[C-Gold]

Woody-

Jacksonville already beat Houston this year.

A similar caliber game for them was going @ Denver and they beat the Broncos by 7. Denver like Houston, also has a crappy run defense ( that didn't pressure Garrard), and they run the same misdirection offense. The Jags won 24-17.

The other closes game that Houston played to Jacksonville, was Miami. I know that isn't a perfect comparison, but the Texans won 29-28 ( and didn't cover).

I think at the very least this game will be close so the 3 points could come in handy. The very thing that makes me pull the trigger, is that Garrard should have a run game, and garrard with a run game is about 10 times better than Garrard without a run game.

 

[theDonger]

Two intangibles that worry me with a Jax pick are:

Rumor that Del Rio has lost his team-- players mailing it in (they said that about cleveland yesterday tho too)

Houston home field advantage and first MNF in 14 years

 

[theDonger]

The very thing that makes me pull the trigger, is that Garrard should have a run game, and garrard with a run game is about 10 times better than Garrard without a run game.

That is a very excellent point.

 

[C-Gold]

Two intangibles that worry me with a Jax pick are:

Rumor that Del Rio has lost his team-- players mailing it in (they said that about cleveland yesterday tho too)

Houston home field advantage and first MNF in 14 years

So you think the Jags are just going to quit on MNF? Because they don't like their daddy... I mean head coach? These are still junk yard dogs ready to kill. They could actually come out hungrier.


So do you think the Texans of today give a shit that the Texans of 2003 didn't have any MNF games? I don't think either of these points work. Most of the texans are new to the team within the past 3 years.

 

[C-Gold]

That is a very excellent point.

Look at Garrard vs Denver, Houston, Detroit etc. Those run defenses suck and the Jags won. They even gave up 27 points to Houston and still won ( and MJD wasn't even the run game).

I think the Jags win SU

 

[theDonger]

Look at Garrard vs Denver, Houston, Detroit etc. Those run defenses suck and the Jags won. They even gave up 27 points to Houston and still won ( and MJD wasn't even the run game).

I think the Jags win SU

Yep-- everywhere I look, this board and 3 others... all Houston. ESPN all over Houston's nuts, Andre Johnson, fire, burning corners,... and talking about two teams headed in different directions..

 

[C-Gold]

ESPN was also talking about how we would have a Jets/Giants super bowl...

Denver didn't need the +9.

 

[C-Gold]

Dong -


Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS at home. Why are you so worried that they get pumped up this game at home, because they are on MNF?

 

[theDonger]

Dong -


Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS at home. Why are you so worried that they get pumped up this game at home, because they are on MNF?

You mean Houston? I'm on Jacksonville for sure. Just got off the phone with my local-- his words "almost all" the action is on Houston. Remember, the public got slaughtered this weekend. Lots of chasers. Kicked an extra unit on JAX when I heard this.

 

[theDonger]

I also liked what I heard on ESPN just now about Sage Rosenfelds.. 1-3 in four starts with 15 turnovers, but here's his real big chance to establish himself as a starter in the league... ????