~J.J.Bascus Power Rating Week #15: December 11-15, 2014~

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

J.J.Bascus Power Rating Week #15: December 11-15, 2014. ~ BEST~ J.J.BASCUS RATING Date Time [EST] J.J. BASCUS J.J.BASCUS POWER LINE Game VEGAS PREDICTING TEAM WIN VEGAS OPENING LINE O/U %ECCO}}}/% 11 Th 12/11 825pm STL -1 ARI at STL STL -4 42 ARI 21.5 STL21.9 Power Rank ARI-4 STL-15 12 Su 12/14 1pm ATL -1/2 PIT at ATL PIT -1 50. PIT 27.1 ATL 25.0 Power Rank PIT-17 ATL-26 8 Su 12/14 1pm NYG -4 WAS at NYG NYG -6.5 47 WAS 18.8 NYG 22.5 Power Rank WAS-28 NYG-25 2 Su 12/14 1pm NE -7 MIA at NE NE -8 48 MIA 24.1 NE 30.0 Power Rank MIA-16 NE-3 3 Su 12/14 1pm KC -7 OAK at KC KC -10.5 42 OAK 15.4 KC 22.1 Power Rank OAK -30 KC-10 7 Su 12/14 1pm IND -5 HOU at IND IND -7 48 HOU 24.0 IND 31.0 Power Rank HOU-18 IND-11 1 Su 12/14 1pm BAL -11 JAC at BAL BAL -14 45 JAC 15.3 BAL 27.4 Power Rank JAC-32 BAL-5 16 Su 12/14 1pm GB -1/2 GB at BUF GB -5 48 GB 32.0 BUF 21.0 Power Rank GB-9 BUF-14 6 Su 12/14 1pm CAR -5.1/2 TB at CAR CAR -5.5 44 TB 18.2 CAR 20.7 Power Rank TB -29 CAR-20 15 Su 12/14 1pm CLE -1/2 CIN at CLE CIN -0.5 44 CIN 21.8 CLE 21.3 Power Rank CIN-19 CLE-24 5 Su 12/14 425pm DET -6 MIN at DET DET -8 45 MIN 20.4 DET 20.6 Power Rank MIN-23 at DET-8 13 Su 12/14 405pm TEN -1 NYJ at TEN NYJ -1 46 NYJ 16.3 TEN 16.7 Power Rank NYJ -21 TEN-31 10 Su 12/14 405pm DEN -2 DEN at SD DEN -4 50 DEN 29.7 SD 22.4 Power Rank DEN -2 SD-13 4 Su 12/14 425pm SEA -6 SF at SEA SEA -10 41 SF 18.6 SEA 24.5 Power Rank SF -6 SEA-1 9 Su 12/14 830pm PHI -3 DAL at PHI PHI -3 52 DAL 26.3 PHI 29.8 Power Rank DAL-32 PHI-7 14 Mo 12/15 830pm CHI Even NO at CHI NO -3 52 NO 25.6 CHI 21.6 Power Rank NO-22 CHI-27

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Best = Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. A '1' means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.
J.J.Bascus = Pick. The team the J.J.Bascus predicts to win the game.
J.J.Bascus Power Line = forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game by.
Vegas = Team that Vegas picks to win.
V.Line = Vegas spread for the game (points the pick will win by).
O/U = J.J. Bascus Prediction for Over/Under. Prediction for the total amount of points scored by both teams.
New> ECCO % Rating P/R against the point spread & power rank lower number better the rating
*Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game

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J.J. % Very close projected Game%> Green Bay at Buffalo. J.J. % Best Percentage%> (team to win by lot of points): Baltimore Raven

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Projected Results. NFL Predictions based on J.J. Baucus analysis of offensive and defensive points and yards per game and other statistics and factors. Picks include recent team statistics. Best= ranks best chances to win.

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This power rating is not ''computerized generated'' by J.J. analysis. These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.

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~J.J. BASCUS PLAYBOOK~

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JAC at BAL > Statistically, across the board the Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL and with playoff chances and at home this should be a rout

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OAK at KC > Well the Raiders shocked the world last week and KC has now dropped 3 in a row. With playoff chances still in tact Chiefs should win big

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MIA at NE > The Dolphins do match up well against NE (stronger pass def then run def). This game comes down to location and quarterbacks

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MIN at DET > Even in a tough NFC the Lions are going to be a tough out in the playoffs and may even be Super Bowl contenders. MIN likely routed here

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SF at SEA > Coming off a Thanksgiving day meltdown, SF gets another chance at their division rival. Might be higher scoring but a similar outcome can be expected

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TB at CAR > Cam Newton status out. The Panthers came to life last week and Tampa struggled, though on the road against a very good Lions team.

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HOU at IND > J.J. Watt gets a chance to slow the NFLs second best offense. Colts should roll at home.

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WAS at NYG > The 3-10 Redskins were once 3-5 on their way to self-destructing. Giants come up strong favorites

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DAL at PHI > Vegas and my rating are both in line behind Eagles, who recently dominated DAL 33-10 on Thanksgiving Day

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DEN at SD > SD looks for repeat of a year ago when Chargers knocked off Broncos 27-20 in Denver, part of winning 4 straight to end the year and make the playoffs

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ARI at STL > Short rest favors home team. Rams have been rolling. Rams solid last 4 games. 5 games back? Lost 14-31 at Arizona (though it took 21 4th quarter points)! Rams are the bet tonight Thursday Night Game -2 1/2

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NYJ at TEN > Difference with Vegas. Battle of basement dwellers. Jets just as likely to be looking toward NFL draft.

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PIT at ATL > Big Ben destroyed CIN last week and thus Vegas backing. This sets up as a good early game to watch.

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CIN at CLE > Manziel is in as starter. Hoyer hasn't thrown for a TD in 3 weeks. Probably we should take a little off CLE for that, though it is Manziel.

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NO at CHI > Bears have been coming up stronger in our system than how they have played this year. Saints, well, no one can really know what to expect. Avoid.

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GB at BUF > My rating sees it closer. Falcons made GB sweat last week and the Packers have short rest for this battle.

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~J.J. BASCUS $ PLAYERS $~

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Thursday night game

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J J. BASCUS [Reno NV.] STL-2 1/2

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System Smity Ryan [Las Vegas NV.] STL-2 1/2

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HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V.] STL-2 1/2

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Bee Bee Black widow [Henderson N.V.] STL-2 1/2

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Sammy Sea Way [Boston Mass.] STL-2 1/2

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Sundays games

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J J. BASCUS [Reno NV.] ?

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System Smity Ryan [Las Vegas NV .] ?

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HarryTheHat[ Las Vegas N.V.] ?

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Bee Bee Black widow [Henderson N.V.] ?

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Sammy Sea Way [Boston Mass.] ?

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*****Will post Picks & Bets by Saturday Night for Sundays Game

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Posted By Hårr¥THëHÄT

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Ps. Good Luck On Your Picks And Bets For Week #15 Of The NFL Season

 

[JJphilly]

Good info as always..thanks

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Good info as always..thanks

Thank you I hope it helps you on your picks.

 

[indiana]

Mr./H.Hat........appreciate the info........solid..........BOL with your action this week..........indy

 

[RussellPeters]

Good info as always..thanks

Really? From reading the game thoughts it sounds like a pretty generic Joe Pub type of analysis. These are the things my co-workers would tell me and they are at the bottom of our football pool. Haven't read anything that sticks out? Appreciate the power rankings though Harry, that's always helpful. Good luck.

 

[LexingtonGambler]

Another tough one!!!!! What is it 7 or 8 in a row for Mr. Harry the Hat!!!!! Better Luck this Weekend.

 

[varkeyboy]

Another tough one!!!!! What is it 7 or 8 in a row for Mr. Harry the Hat!!!!! Better Luck this Weekend.

Losses? Haven't really been paying attention...

 

[bmore]

Wow so Dallas is ranked dead last at 32 in his power rankings??

Either that's a typo or his power rankings are as good as McNabb's

 

[bmore]

Also SFran ranked higher then GBay? Has he not watched football this year?

Beware fellas these rankings are total crap

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

From The "Vegas Insider News"
This could affect and reflect point spread wideout Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Julius Thomas, who’ve accounted for 117 catches, 1,380yards and 19 touchdowns. Will they play Sunday against the Dolphins?

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This could be a big factor betting this game. MGM Resorts opened the game at Broncos -7.5. With most books at 7, Rood automatically took moneyon Miami and lowered the line to -7.5 (even). Rood said the line would have been at least 7.5 everywhere if Sanders and Thomas were certain to play.

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From "Sporting News"
Johnny Manziel, love him or hate him, you're still going to watch him. Whether you want to or not.
The majority of the nation was set to watch Green Bay vs. Buffalo as the early game, but that was beforeManziel got the start. Of course we're all curious to see how he'll preform under the pressure. He's been saying all season that he's ready and believes he can help the team, and after Brian Hoyer's past few games, people are starting to believe he can.
Sorry Aaron Rodgers, it's Johnny Football time to shine. The Browns will take on the Bengals and everyone will be watching.

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From "Sporting News" Texans running back Arian Foster (groin) is a gametime decision after not practicing Thursday, but rookie Alfred Blue showed last week there’s not much dropoff. He ripped the Browns for 156 yards rushing.
With Ryan Mallett set to make his second start, the Texans opened as 2-point favorites and the line has held at MGM Resorts.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Also SFran ranked higher then GBay? Has he not watched football this year?

Beware fellas these rankings are total crap

Best = Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. A '1' means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week. ECCO % Rating P/R against the point spread & power rank lower number better the rating. *Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Wow so Dallas is ranked dead last at 32 in his power rankings??

Either that's a typo or his power rankings are as good as McNabb's

Best = Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. A '1' means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week. ECCO % Rating P/R against the point spread & power rank lower number better the rating. *Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game.

 

[bmore]

Mr Harry I'm talking specifically about the power rating part. It has SF at 6 and Dallas at 32 are you telling me those aren't his power rankings of the teams even though it says power rankings?

Im sorry but that is very confusing if you wouldn't mind explaining. Thanks in advance

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

To bmore>> I don.t want to be rude? Read the bottom part of the power ranking and it gives you the glossary of definitions of the rating. Good luck on your picks and bets this week

 

[bmore]

I'm assuming you meant this:

This power rating is not ''computerized generated'' by J.J. analysis. These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.


If this is what you meant it seems that these are his power rankings so he does think SF is the 6th best team and Dallas is the worst in the NFL, what am I missing? Please correct me if I am wrong

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I'm assuming you meant this:

This power rating is not ''computerized generated'' by J.J. analysis. These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.


If this is what you meant it seems that these are his power rankings so he does think SF is the 6th best team and Dallas is the worst in the NFL, what am I missing? Please correct me if I am wrong

Best = Ranks the spreads .J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.

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ECCO % Rating P/R against the point spread & power rank lower number better the rating. ECCO> statistical rating & power rank vs J.J. personal power rating and rank.[ J.J.Bascus picks will win the game is a Performance rating from a hypothetical point of view rating[ Presumed to be true or real without conclusive evidence] that would result from the games. Example>

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6

Su 12/14

1pm

CAR

-5.1/2

TB at CAR

CAR

-5.5

44

TB 18.2 CAR 20.7 Power Rank TB -29 CAR-20

TB 18.2 CAR 20.7= 2.5 0R - 2 1/2. Power Rank is a rating of past performances. J.J.Bascus rates this game as # 6. J.J.Bascus picks this game at # 6 has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week that has a higher rating. You have to realize these are past performance rating. **Rating systems can not ignore “throw-away” game". The system does not take into account injuries, weather conditions, yardage gained, the importance of the game, whether it was a Monday Night game or not, whether the quarterback's grandmother was sick, or anything else besides points scored and points allowed J.J.all adds some of his personal concepts to his rating like ecco%. These are games where teams have already earned a post-season bid and have secured their playoff seeding before the end of the regular season, and want to rest/protect their starters by benching them for those remaining regular season games. This usually results in unpredictable outcomes, but without a mechanism to ignore such games (which runs counter to the goals of such systems), this will unintentionally skew the outcomes of rating systems.

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I hope this reply helps you understand rating bmore? enough said my fellow member!!!. I am going have a cocktail here at sportsbook, so I can understand J.J.s power rating too /LOL/LOL!!!! Just Kidding my friend !!!. There is nothing like a cocktail with good scotch betting on NFL games and watching all games at your favorite sports book here in Vegas /LOL !!!!!

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There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."The greatest discovery of all time is that a person can change his future by merely changing his attitude.!!!!!!!!

 

[Cheddar]

From The "Vegas Insider News"
This could affect and reflect point spread wideout Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Julius Thomas, who’ve accounted for 117 catches, 1,380yards and 19 touchdowns. Will they play Sunday against the Dolphins?

---

This could be a big factor betting this game. MGM Resorts opened the game at Broncos -7.5. With most books at 7, Rood automatically took moneyon Miami and lowered the line to -7.5 (even). Rood said the line would have been at least 7.5 everywhere if Sanders and Thomas were certain to play.

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From "Sporting News"
Johnny Manziel, love him or hate him, you're still going to watch him. Whether you want to or not.
The majority of the nation was set to watch Green Bay vs. Buffalo as the early game, but that was beforeManziel got the start. Of course we're all curious to see how he'll preform under the pressure. He's been saying all season that he's ready and believes he can help the team, and after Brian Hoyer's past few games, people are starting to believe he can.
Sorry Aaron Rodgers, it's Johnny Football time to shine. The Browns will take on the Bengals and everyone will be watching.

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From "Sporting News" Texans running back Arian Foster (groin) is a gametime decision after not practicing Thursday, but rookie Alfred Blue showed last week there’s not much dropoff. He ripped the Browns for 156 yards rushing.
With Ryan Mallett set to make his second start, the Texans opened as 2-point favorites and the line has held at MGM Resorts.

I'm guessing Sanders and Thomas do not play against the Dolphins this weekend. Just a hunch

 

[Cheddar]

Also doubt Denver opened at -7.5. Good info though

 

[919]

Julius Thomas is playing