J.J. Bascus NFL Power Rating Week #13 November 27-December 1, 2014.
J.J..>Best Chance (team to win by the most points): Indianapolis Colts
Best = Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. A '1' means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.
J.J.Bascus = Pick. The team the J.J.Bascus predicts to win the game.
J.J.Bascus Power Line = forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game by.
Vegas = Team that Vegas picks to win.
V.Line = Vegas spread for the game (points the pick will win by).
O/U = J.J. Bascus Prediction for Over/Under. Prediction for the total amount of points scored by both teams.
*Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the gameJ
[h=1]Sammy SeaWay[ Boston Mass.] Power Rating Differential Sammy was visiting all of us on Thanksgiving Day, Gave J.J. Bascus his power rating differential view point [ different prospective of games] to post with his power rating.[/h]
[h=1][/h]Note>> The chart below shows the calculated differentials between opponents in Sammy SeaWays Power Ratings and what the actual market price is. Keep in mind, though, that a home team advantage is not factored into these calculations. A football team's home field advantage is typically worth 3 points, Still, this page provides a solid basis for determining which team offers the better value in terms of the point spread.
J.J.Bascus Notes
After Thursday, the Eagles appeared superior. The gulf between coach Chip Kelly's team and the rest of the NFC East widened in a statement game that could resonate when the playoff bracket is determined next month.
Fitzpatrick was the Texans’ Weeks 1-9 starter and officially regained his role Wednesday, taking over for an injured Ryan Mallett.
Going back to Smith now is a mere rearrangement of Titanic deck chairs, a mostly cosmetic move that will not save Ryan's job and should not save Idzik's.This remains a team in need of a drastic upgrade before it can be competitive again. The fix is not to be found in either Smith or Vick at the moment.
As a result, the AFC North standings are about as tight as can be: Cincinnati leads at 7-3-1; everyone else is deadlocked at 7-4. And the following four games are yet to come on the NFL schedule:
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Cleveland at Baltimore
All could (and probably will) go a long way toward determining which and how many AFC North teams make the playoff field.The division has enjoyed the benefit of playing the downtrodden NFC South and the mediocre AFC South in conference-crossover games. The AFC North did its part and won most of those games, setting up for a race to the finish line.
The Washington Redskins plan to start Colt McCoy over Robert Griffin III on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, according to a person familiar with the decision, the latest development in a stunning slide for the 2012 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Indianapolis hardly rolled against Jacksonville. The Indy skill positions and offensive line are banged up. Regardless, this is the kind of game its defense is built to win: one against a bad team with a quarterback who can no longer stand up in the pocket against pressure.
Predictions From the Group[ J.J. Bascus & System Smitty Ryan & Back Room Benny The Jew And HarryTheHat
System Smitty Ryan has a lean on the Patriots and says getting +3 or more is good value for a game that should be 2 or 2.5. Despite both teams routinely putting 40-spots on their opponent, he doesn’t see either team running away with the game, which bodes well for the UNDER. The Patriots defense allows only 20 and the Packers 22 ppg. Back Room Benny Jew doesn’t have a lean to either side in this potentially epic matchup, but does believe both teams will execute their offenses and likes the game to go over what he believe to be the highest total ever on an NFL regular-season game. Smitty & Myself [ J.J.] are split on the total, and Bee Bee Black Widow likes a 7 point teaser + 9 Packers the over at 58 will go to 65 and bet under.
This will be Denver's fourth road game in its last five, and the Broncos have covered just one of their last four overall. This is a great spot for the Chiefs to stop the Broncos' five-game win streak over them. Their last win against Denver came when Tim Tebow was under center, but the razor-thin spread here indicates Kansas City is rated higher than ever during the Peyton Manning era. Smitty expect the Chiefs to play their game and slow it down, Benny and myself J.J. like Kansas City to cover the 3, This game might go -2 1/2 at game time.
The Ravens have been dominant at home (4-1 ATS) and have covered in 11 of their last 14 against winning teams, Despite not covering their past six games, we see signs of the Chargers getting their groove back, as Ryan Mathews has returned to the offensive attack and helped San Diego to two straight wins. San Diego should keep this one close in a game we think comes down to a field goal. We like the pace to be slow in a 20-17 type of game Either way. Ravens might win?[ not cover ] Our play is the Chargers +6
Bee Bee Black Widow I see this game ending in single digits as well. Since we can touch both single-score spreads with a teaser on the Chiefs, it has to be the play here. At +8, and at home, the Chiefs should have no issue keeping this one close on Sunday evening. The Chiefs already covered their NFL and teaser odds once this season against the Broncos, and while they aren’t as undervalued this time as they were in September, they still pose a great threat to Peyton Manning and company. 2-Team Teaser Patriots +9 & Chiefs +8
NFL Predictions based on J.J. Bascus analysis of offensive and defensive points and yards per game and other statistics and factors. Picks include recent team statistics. Best= ranks best chances to win.
These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.
Ryan has four touchdowns and one pick in his last three games, and the Falcons have 43 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Julio Jones and Roddy White have combined for more than 1,600 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Devin Hester has seven receptions in his last two games. Julio Jones and Roddy White have combined for more than 1,600 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Devin Hester has seven receptions in his last two games. Theoretically, their only truly winnable game is their upcoming date with the Atlanta Falcons. Even if the Cardinals somehow manage to navigate a successful course through this schedule to win the division or earn a playoff spot, in a quarterback focused sport, the absence of an elite play-caller will inevitably continue to take the shine off their odds. Home underdogs can offer angles for profit on NFL picks. Cardinals are way better on paper and on the field than the Falcons. They have been consistent from week to week, a reliable bet on the NFL odds board. That they lost last week to the defending champions is neither here nor there in football betting terms, particularly not this week. They should bounce back against a beatable Falcons in week 13 NFL betting. Shade the Cardinals on your NFL picks.The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.The Atlanta Falcons have the worst defense in the league and have been just as bad against the number as they've been overall. Give me the Arizona Cardinals for the victory with the cheap chalk . This Game opened at a pick and went to -1/1/2 to -2. and some spots you might get -2 Cardinals -2.5
Hårr¥THëHÄT
PS. System Smitty Ryan and Back Room Benny The Jew think this game with a low spread margin is a trap play. I disagree with both of them.
Good Luck To all you on Rx Sports Forum For Lucky Week #13 In The NFL. After my short string of losses, I need some luck on lucky week 13 !!!!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT
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Best = Ranks the spreads from high-to-low. A '1' means J.J.Bascus pick for that game has the best chance of winning relative to every other game that week.
J.J.Bascus = Pick. The team the J.J.Bascus predicts to win the game.
J.J.Bascus Power Line = forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the game by.
Vegas = Team that Vegas picks to win.
V.Line = Vegas spread for the game (points the pick will win by).
O/U = J.J. Bascus Prediction for Over/Under. Prediction for the total amount of points scored by both teams.
*Home field advantage point spread is factored in with the forecast for how many points J.J.Bascus picks will win the gameJ
[h=1]Sammy SeaWay[ Boston Mass.] Power Rating Differential Sammy was visiting all of us on Thanksgiving Day, Gave J.J. Bascus his power rating differential view point [ different prospective of games] to post with his power rating.[/h]
[h=1][/h]Note>> The chart below shows the calculated differentials between opponents in Sammy SeaWays Power Ratings and what the actual market price is. Keep in mind, though, that a home team advantage is not factored into these calculations. A football team's home field advantage is typically worth 3 points, Still, this page provides a solid basis for determining which team offers the better value in terms of the point spread.
| Week of: 11/25/2014 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Date | Open | Team | Power Rating | Differential | SPoint | LVH |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 43 -2½ | Car Min | 92 90.5 | -1.5 | 42½ -2½ | 42½ -2½ |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 53 -3½ | NO Pit | 97 95.5 | -1.5 | 54 -4½ | 54 -4½ |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 43 -7 | Oak StL | 91 91.5 | -0.5 | 42½ -6½ | 42 -6½ |
| 11/30 1:00PM | -3½ 44 | Cin TB | 97 92.5 | -4.5 | -3½ 44 | -3½ 44 |
| 11/30 1:00PM | -2 44 | NYG Jac | 93 88 | -5 | -3 44½ | -3 45 |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 45½ -5½ | SD Bal | 93.5 98.5 | -5 | 46 -6 | 45½ -6 |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 41½ -2 | Cle Buf | 92.5 94.5 | -2 | 42 -3 | 42 -3-20 |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 42½ -6½ | Ten Hou | 91 92.5 | -1.5 | 42½ -7 | 43 -7 |
| 11/30 1:00PM | 51 -9½ | Was Ind | 93.5 97.5 | -4 | 51 -9½ | 51 -9½ |
| 11/30 4:05PM | -2 44½ | Ari Atl | 95 90.5 | -4.5 | -2 44½ | -1½ 44½ |
| 11/30 4:25PM | 58½ -3½ | NE GB | 100 99.5 | -0.5 | 58½ -3 | 59 -3-20 |
| 11/30 8:30PM | 49½ - | Den KC | 101 96.5 | -4.5 | -1½ 49½ | -1½ 50 |
| 12/1 8:30PM | -5½ 42 | Mia NYJ | 98 91 | -7 | -7 42 | -7-ev 42 |
J.J.Bascus Notes
After Thursday, the Eagles appeared superior. The gulf between coach Chip Kelly's team and the rest of the NFC East widened in a statement game that could resonate when the playoff bracket is determined next month.
Fitzpatrick was the Texans’ Weeks 1-9 starter and officially regained his role Wednesday, taking over for an injured Ryan Mallett.
Going back to Smith now is a mere rearrangement of Titanic deck chairs, a mostly cosmetic move that will not save Ryan's job and should not save Idzik's.This remains a team in need of a drastic upgrade before it can be competitive again. The fix is not to be found in either Smith or Vick at the moment.
As a result, the AFC North standings are about as tight as can be: Cincinnati leads at 7-3-1; everyone else is deadlocked at 7-4. And the following four games are yet to come on the NFL schedule:
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Cincinnati at Cleveland
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Cleveland at Baltimore
All could (and probably will) go a long way toward determining which and how many AFC North teams make the playoff field.The division has enjoyed the benefit of playing the downtrodden NFC South and the mediocre AFC South in conference-crossover games. The AFC North did its part and won most of those games, setting up for a race to the finish line.
The Washington Redskins plan to start Colt McCoy over Robert Griffin III on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, according to a person familiar with the decision, the latest development in a stunning slide for the 2012 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Indianapolis hardly rolled against Jacksonville. The Indy skill positions and offensive line are banged up. Regardless, this is the kind of game its defense is built to win: one against a bad team with a quarterback who can no longer stand up in the pocket against pressure.
Predictions From the Group[ J.J. Bascus & System Smitty Ryan & Back Room Benny The Jew And HarryTheHat
System Smitty Ryan has a lean on the Patriots and says getting +3 or more is good value for a game that should be 2 or 2.5. Despite both teams routinely putting 40-spots on their opponent, he doesn’t see either team running away with the game, which bodes well for the UNDER. The Patriots defense allows only 20 and the Packers 22 ppg. Back Room Benny Jew doesn’t have a lean to either side in this potentially epic matchup, but does believe both teams will execute their offenses and likes the game to go over what he believe to be the highest total ever on an NFL regular-season game. Smitty & Myself [ J.J.] are split on the total, and Bee Bee Black Widow likes a 7 point teaser + 9 Packers the over at 58 will go to 65 and bet under.
This will be Denver's fourth road game in its last five, and the Broncos have covered just one of their last four overall. This is a great spot for the Chiefs to stop the Broncos' five-game win streak over them. Their last win against Denver came when Tim Tebow was under center, but the razor-thin spread here indicates Kansas City is rated higher than ever during the Peyton Manning era. Smitty expect the Chiefs to play their game and slow it down, Benny and myself J.J. like Kansas City to cover the 3, This game might go -2 1/2 at game time.
The Ravens have been dominant at home (4-1 ATS) and have covered in 11 of their last 14 against winning teams, Despite not covering their past six games, we see signs of the Chargers getting their groove back, as Ryan Mathews has returned to the offensive attack and helped San Diego to two straight wins. San Diego should keep this one close in a game we think comes down to a field goal. We like the pace to be slow in a 20-17 type of game Either way. Ravens might win?[ not cover ] Our play is the Chargers +6
Bee Bee Black Widow I see this game ending in single digits as well. Since we can touch both single-score spreads with a teaser on the Chiefs, it has to be the play here. At +8, and at home, the Chiefs should have no issue keeping this one close on Sunday evening. The Chiefs already covered their NFL and teaser odds once this season against the Broncos, and while they aren’t as undervalued this time as they were in September, they still pose a great threat to Peyton Manning and company. 2-Team Teaser Patriots +9 & Chiefs +8
NFL Predictions based on J.J. Bascus analysis of offensive and defensive points and yards per game and other statistics and factors. Picks include recent team statistics. Best= ranks best chances to win.
These are the type of calculations from J.J.Bascus power rating analysis that Vegas doesn't want you to see. Plus his power rating predictions factors in slightly different factors which give differences with the Las Vegas predictions that can help you confirm and/or make your own decisions.
Ryan has four touchdowns and one pick in his last three games, and the Falcons have 43 passing plays of 20 or more yards. Julio Jones and Roddy White have combined for more than 1,600 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Devin Hester has seven receptions in his last two games. Julio Jones and Roddy White have combined for more than 1,600 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Devin Hester has seven receptions in his last two games. Theoretically, their only truly winnable game is their upcoming date with the Atlanta Falcons. Even if the Cardinals somehow manage to navigate a successful course through this schedule to win the division or earn a playoff spot, in a quarterback focused sport, the absence of an elite play-caller will inevitably continue to take the shine off their odds. Home underdogs can offer angles for profit on NFL picks. Cardinals are way better on paper and on the field than the Falcons. They have been consistent from week to week, a reliable bet on the NFL odds board. That they lost last week to the defending champions is neither here nor there in football betting terms, particularly not this week. They should bounce back against a beatable Falcons in week 13 NFL betting. Shade the Cardinals on your NFL picks.The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in November and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.The Atlanta Falcons have the worst defense in the league and have been just as bad against the number as they've been overall. Give me the Arizona Cardinals for the victory with the cheap chalk . This Game opened at a pick and went to -1/1/2 to -2. and some spots you might get -2 Cardinals -2.5
Hårr¥THëHÄT
PS. System Smitty Ryan and Back Room Benny The Jew think this game with a low spread margin is a trap play. I disagree with both of them.
Good Luck To all you on Rx Sports Forum For Lucky Week #13 In The NFL. After my short string of losses, I need some luck on lucky week 13 !!!!!!
Hårr¥THëHÄT
