It's Not Rocket Science to Beat the NHL This Year

[VegasVic]

Just lay the wood.

Since last Thursday....42-15 favorites.

On occasion it's hip to be square.

 

[VegasRandy]

Do you think we will see some regression to the mean? Maybe look for the dog to bounce back?

 

[MattRain]

I went 0-9 tonight. All road dogs. Thought about betting Minny, the only road dog that won, but it had steamed too much (IMO) by the time I checked the line.

Unreal. Getting killed in the NHL this season.

 

[The-Chairman]

You have to be smart and pick your spots. I had Minny tonight and it was the only dog I played.

 

[VegasVic]

Do you think we will see some regression to the mean? Maybe look for the dog to bounce back?

That's a big, without a doubt. This 42-15 run is a anomaly with a capital A.

Taking the plus prices in the NHL has been a proven and successful attack since the lockout. One week does not negate this trend. There is too much parity for any other long term result.

As the Chairman says, we need to pick our spots.

 

[VegasVic]

I went 0-9 tonight. All road dogs. Thought about betting Minny, the only road dog that won, but it had steamed too much (IMO) by the time I checked the line.

Unreal. Getting killed in the NHL this season.

Me too Matt. I can't tell you how many games I've lost in shootouts or having what I know is the corect side but with the wrong result. All those bad bounces will turn around for both of us.

I plan on saving all my lucky breaks for the BetJam post up contest.

Good luck to you for the remainder of this very long season.

 

[MattRain]

GL to you too VV! :toast:

I watched the whole 3rd period of the Blues-Sharks game yesterday (bet on STL +260). The Blues played the exact kind of gritty game that grossly-undervalued dogs normally do, and they either lead or were tied for most of the game. Huge value if this same game were to be re-played 100 times. Alas, the backup goalie got a bit overexcited and made the first move on the Shark's 3rd SO attempt, and it went in. Like you said, it seems to be a recurring theme up to now this season. It'll turn around, but in the meantime, it's pretty brutal.

That was a great game though. :smoking:

 

[powerz]

Straight Up Trends (Won Loss OTL SOL)

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="34%">Category</TD><TD width="33%">Record</TD><TD width="33%">Percent</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Teams</TD><TD>85-81-11-14</TD><TD>44.50%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Teams</TD><TD>106-61-12-12</TD><TD>55.50%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Favorites</TD><TD>120-41-13-10</TD><TD>65.22%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Dogs</TD><TD>64-96-8-16</TD><TD>34.78%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Favorites</TD><TD>29-7-3-2</TD><TD>70.73%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Dogs</TD><TD>52-72-7-12</TD><TD>36.36%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Favorites</TD><TD>91-34-10-8</TD><TD>63.64%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Dogs</TD><TD>12-24-1-4</TD><TD>29.27%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


The Road Favs have been Over 70% all year long they have been the best bet this year


Having said that backing the fav on the PL has been a losing proposition this year.

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)Category Record Percent
Away Teams 109-80 57.67%
Home Teams 80-109 42.33%
Favorites 62-127 32.80%
Dogs 127-62 67.20%
Away Favorites 10-28 26.32%
Away Dogs 99-52 65.56%
Home Favorites 52-99 34.44%
Home Dogs 28-10 73.68%


So the elusive search for the Plus money in the NHL has been a challenge.

 

[VegasVic]

Thanks for the post powerz.

While I'm not surprised that the -1.5 has been a losing proposition I am surprised at those road numbers.

 

[barman]

It's certainly been a frustrating first month as the principles I'm applying are far more consistent with winning play than any time in my previous two years of very active capping.

But we do know there's a return to Center and the +moneyliners will move back to the fray.

 

[barman]

I think I speak for us all when I write THANKS VIC for creating this Thread and immediately inspiring four moneyline dogs (Carolina shows -102 closing at Covers) out of four games to pop tonight.

:smoker2:

 

[powerz]

After the weekend - Straight up results

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Favorites</TD><TD>31-11-3-3</TD><TD>64.58%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Dogs</TD><TD>57-81-7-12</TD><TD>36.31%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Favorites</TD><TD>100-38-11-8</TD><TD>63.69%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Dogs</TD><TD>17-25-1-5</TD><TD>35.42%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Dogs did well this weekend

ATS results:
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Favorites</TD><TD>10-34</TD><TD>22.73%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Away Dogs</TD><TD>107-59</TD><TD>64.46%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Favorites</TD><TD>59-107</TD><TD>35.54%</TD></TR><TR class=datarow><TD>Home Dogs</TD><TD>34-10</TD><TD>77.27%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The road favorite position is eroding rapidly - Look at Homedogs +1.5

powers

 

[heart222]

Hi I have been taking the top 2 fav minimum 170- or better and parlayng them been a good year so far. + about 4 units started 2 weeks ago. If i feel good about teams i take a .40 unit on a puc kline parlay its about even or slightly behind. I dont do it with road fav just home favs. for what tis worth tonight its minn and mtl. good luck all.

 

[VegasVic]

Hi I have been taking the top 2 fav minimum 170- or better and parlayng them been a good year so far. + about 4 units started 2 weeks ago. If i feel good about teams i take a .40 unit on a puc kline parlay its about even or slightly behind. I dont do it with road fav just home favs. for what tis worth tonight its minn and mtl. good luck all.

I have a friend here that has been doing the same thing this year. He knows very little about hockey but is getting rich by this method and has been making me rethink my long standing prejudice against betting parlays.