it 'appears' that denver's d statistically is getting better but...

[seer]

i would credit this to good offensive play calling and smoke and mirrors.
in the game vs sd den had over 13 min adv with the ball and in the new eng game over 11 min adv.
the sd game they had 1 long drive of over 7 mins and 2 more over 5 mins
in the pats game they had 2 drives taking off more than 7 mins!

if i have to give credit where it is due is a masterful job with the offensive play calling.
however,
with that much time off the clock. the jaguars would look better in defense than the numbers they show as well.

denver cannot mask that they have had a bad defense. they cant run and hide forever.
one thing about their defense is that they have had better blitz packages. i am not sure how that can be a concern vs a mobile qb in wilson though.
fact is they are still 27th in pass protection (but i say it is about 20th or better) reason i say this is most teams had to pass and abandon the run after trailing by too many pts to denver during the game with that many pass attempts. in fact denver was also 27th in teams attempting passes against them. i value the stat y/a moreso this would make seattle still #1 but den #15 - if you account for sos there is still no way i would rank den at #15 - this is why i still say 19 or more teams better vs pass than denver.

denvers rush def #7? i dispute that stat with more relevance
examining some games where the game didnt matter or few rushing attempts should even count

week 1
balt - well balt in the early part of season had the worst yds/a in the league this year after a large lead they didnt/ couldnt run they also finished last in yds/a no wonder they didnt make the post season
2 giants were 3rd last in league for r/a they had zero oline when they played them
3 oakland practically abandoned the run in the 2nd h
4 i'll skip past this week for later on
5 dallas didnt need to run romo had over 500!!! yds in the air. dal had 14 att rushes
6 please? does this even count in the stats vs the worst team in the league in week 6 jax? jax was 2nd last in league with rushes/attmpts
this means at this point denver faced the 3 worst rushing teams in the league
7i'll skip past this game as well den lost to indy
8 wash gained 4ypc in this game that they were blown out in the 3-4q
9bye
10 sd had 135 rush yds
11 despite winning broncos allowe over 6 ypc vs kc not good
12 lost to pats werent they leading by more than 20? good d there!
13 again a nice day on the ground for kc
14 ten was 19th in r/a on the year not too bad a game for den allowing under 100 but not great- ten was leading at the half
15 lost to chargers where i cashed a nice ml win skip past for now
16/17 hou playing for draft picks hardly ran in the 2nd h. and pls do we count oakland who had zero chance

lets review some skipped games
a/ they allowed philly to tack on 165 yds on them! they had 35 attempts of which only 8 attempts in the 2nd h! and that is when the game was over and mccoy wasnt even running late in the 4q

b/ in the chargers game that den lost they gave up 177 on the ground most of which to little ryan matthews.

c/indy had over 121 yds to beat broncos despite not being known as a running team. indy ranks 23rd in rush attempts!

note in denvers 3 games they lost they gave up more than 115 yds minimum
this against indy who ranks 23rd in rush attempts. sd with little ryan AND they rank 20th in r/a!!
AND
they played the bottom 3 in rush d this year
AND
rushing didnt really count in the 2nd h of most den games cuz the game was already a blowout

so..does denvers #7 rush d really make sense?
it doesnt to me

all i see in this and other forums
is how den rush d is 7th and will contain the beast

- how great manning is..does he play d?
- that wilson is not a good qb

yet no one talks about lynch. the o of seattle runs thru lynch and not wilson
as u can see the den run d is a facade and a fraud! it is not a true #7 in fact i would rank them adjusted for sos at least below half or at half the league.
they can be beat and have been beat by teams that run past 115yds
- i believe lynch alone will have that and much more in winning this game for seattle

this is not my w/u on the game btw i have much more to say

 

[cashducats]

agreed, i mention this in my thread too but not in the detail you presented. its even more impressive when you actually look at the numbers

 

[seer]

or in denver's case the gaudy defensive gaffs they do have. they will be exposed for the defensive frauds they are on sunday

 

[3pointdog]

Well said seer my pal...

 

[ofred]

Almost all of Denver's defensive injuries were for the best guy at specific things. Von Miller- their best defensive player period. Vickerson- their best run stopper on the DL. Chris Harris- best CB. Rahim Moore- best safety. Derek Wolfe- good against the run, not a pass rusher. Some of these are debatable, but Denver's secondary is not all that physical, and when Lynch runs, he can get extra yards when he gets through the front line. Seattle's OL was injury riddled the first half of the year, but is now healthy and has played well in the last third of the season. If the Seahawks design some Wilson roll outs and runs, it could really cause Denver's D to lose their aggressiveness. With Brady and Rivers, there was none of that- and you could see the Denver DL/ LB coming straight at the pocket play after play.

 

[seer]

Almost all of Denver's defensive injuries were for the best guy at specific things. Von Miller- their best defensive player period. Vickerson- their best run stopper on the DL. Chris Harris- best CB. Rahim Moore- best safety. Derek Wolfe- good against the run, not a pass rusher. Some of these are debatable, but Denver's secondary is not all that physical, and when Lynch runs, he can get extra yards when he gets through the front line. Seattle's OL was injury riddled the first half of the year, but is now healthy and has played well in the last third of the season. If the Seahawks design some Wilson roll outs and runs, it could really cause Denver's D to lose their aggressiveness. With Brady and Rivers, there was none of that- and you could see the Denver DL/ LB coming straight at the pocket play after play.

good points.
seattle lost to indy when they were at their worst for injuries. 3 olinemen out.okung incl
no one talks about moreno's injury. without a run game manning might have some difficulty

 

[sendacash]

Almost all of Denver's defensive injuries were for the best guy at specific things. Von Miller- their best defensive player period. Vickerson- their best run stopper on the DL. Chris Harris- best CB. Rahim Moore- best safety. Derek Wolfe- good against the run, not a pass rusher. Some of these are debatable, but Denver's secondary is not all that physical, and when Lynch runs, he can get extra yards when he gets through the front line. Seattle's OL was injury riddled the first half of the year, but is now healthy and has played well in the last third of the season. If the Seahawks design some Wilson roll outs and runs, it could really cause Denver's D to lose their aggressiveness. With Brady and Rivers, there was none of that- and you could see the Denver DL/ LB coming straight at the pocket play after play.

And yet through all those injuries and players lost, here the Broncos are on the verge of another SB. The Broncos do have a physical strong safety in Duke Ihenacho who is good in run support and in the base defense, Paris Lenon eventually took over for an injured Wesley Woodyard(more natural on the weakside) at Mike LB and that seemed to help shore of the run defense as well. When Vickerson went down they had to work the rookie 1st round pick Williams into the starting unit at DT, but then the big fella Pot Roast really started to step up becoming a force against the run. Let's face it though, this defense is not the 85 Bears by any stretch of the imagination, but the Broncos don't hang their hats on defense. The Broncos (if you didn't already know) have the greatest offense of all time, lead by Peyton Manning. That's gonna be your biggest concern come Sunday, can the Seahawks keep up?

 

[ofred]

Brady and the Patriots have been the best offensive team(until this year), and they haven't won a super bowl in a long time. The Kurt Warner Rams were also an offensive juggernaut, and barely won one-but didn't cover. The Dan Fouts Chargers also lost as much as they won. All great offensive teams. If this Seattle defense was just ordinary good, I'd have a hard time loading up on Seattle, but they are better than that, in my opinion. Much better. Besides, Seattle's run game, which I think will include Wilson, and RW's ability to make plays on the run- is going to be a factor here. It's just how I see it, and that's why they play the game. We'll see.

 

[Akillies]

u raise some very good and valid points. denvers success, particularly on defense, is skewed by playing weak teams. New eng and san diego wouldnt have sniffed the playoffs in the nfc. and the injuries make the d even worse.

 

[JasonBiggz]

I agree about Denver's defense.. M.Lynch rushing yards Over 91½ is my biggest prop bet in this game.

 

[Maris9]

The Broncos (if you didn't already know) have the greatest offense of all time, lead by Peyton Manning. That's gonna be your biggest concern come Sunday, can the Seahawks keep up?

No quarterback has led the league in passing yards and won the Super Bowl in the same season.


http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=6364

 

[WormyPix]

The amount of respect SEA's "D" is getting is equivalent to the disrespect DEN's "D" is getting, and both are not quite accurate.

I did mention Lynch in my writeup, & I agree SEA's "O" goes thru Lynch, which is another reason why I believe DEN does enough on "D" to contain SEA. They don't need to hold SEA to under 10 pts to win this. I think if they don't let them score more than 21, DEN gets the win. SEA's oline is not dominant, so Lynch's yds come mostly after contact. DEN can make enough tackles to not let him beat them. And if SEA can't hold Peyton & co, Lynch may be taken out of the gameplan early. In fact, I would be much more concerned w/DEN if they took a big lead & Wilson was forced to pass downfield. All those comebacks on DEN's "D" were thru the air not ground. If I were a SEA backer I would hope for a large deficit early where Bevell would be forced to throw the ball to close the gap. Then you may see Wilson get his rhythm back w/WRs & that could be trouble for DEN.

 

[Albatross]

Denver scores 28.....

 

[Samhain]

Denver scores 28.....

+1

 

[BuffsBIGXII]

Denver scores 28.....

So you should be slamming DEN TT, DEN spread, and the over. It's not unrealistic whatsoever, but I just have a tough time visualizing a 50+ point game without a some help from turnovers/special teams.

 

[seer]

if den somehow scores 28 on the best d in the league then seattle will score 35 with 4 tds from lynch

 

[Albatross]

So you should be slamming DEN TT, DEN spread, and the over. It's not unrealistic whatsoever, but I just have a tough time visualizing a 50+ point game without a some help from turnovers/special teams.

My book doesn't offer TTs, so I never look at them. No other bet you mentioned seems like a sure thing. BOL on your picks.