Is this a trend?

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TheBigLebowski+

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Sep 21, 2004
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I'm noticing something a little weird and am looking for some input. It seems that when ranked teams are playing away against "weaker" opponents AND getting points, they end up losing. Case in point: TCU last night. They were ranked top 10, undefeated, and getting points against Southern Miss. This also happened last weekend with Northern Illinois (actually think they were getting points against BG too). I can't remember all the other games that this has happened in, but it seems like a good amount. Are the oddmakers trying to trick us?? I've got burned once or twice on these lines for using simple logic, ie: "This team is better AND getting points?? Thanks for the gift!" Then they get their ass beat and my account size drops. Someone explain the logic!!!


BTW, if this is a "trend," then Wiscy -2.5 would be the play at home against #17 Iowa.
 

sasquatch

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I BELIEVE BOWLING GREEN + 7 AT MIAMI OHIO ON NOV. 4TH WAS ANOTHER. I DO NOT REMEMBER THE EXACT SCORE BUT I THINK MIAMI O COVERED EASILY.
IMO THESE RANKED ROAD DOGS WERE ALL OVERATED. I THINK FOR THE MOST PART BCS RANKINGS ARE A JOKE. TCU WAS IN THE TOP TEN AFTER A NUMBER OF FIELD GOAL WINS. TENN, TEXAS AND OHIO ST ARE ALL HIGHLY RANKED, BUT I WOULD NOT TRUST ANY OF THEM WITH MY MONEY. I ALSO THINK TRENDS ARE MAINLY COINCIDENCE SUCH AS RED STREAKING IN ROULETTE. BEST OF LUCK WHETHER YOU GO WITH OR AGAINST THIS TREND.
 

olddog

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When it comes to gambling, ignore the rankings. It is better to start with power ratings and go from there. TCU would be a dog to 30-40 teams at a neutral site and probably lose to about 15-20 of them.

OSU is ranked #2, yet a td underdog at Mich tomorrow. It doesn't mean Mich will win and cover. Unfortunately, it is not a trend. Probably ~45-55% of un-ranked (not in top 25) H favs win and cover vs top 25 teams.

Wisc and #17 Iowa are pretty close power rating-wise. If Wisc wins, they may crack the top 25 while Iowa may drop out.
 

Co-Captain

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Confusion, is one of the things the odds maker is trying to get the public to be in. When people are in a state of confusion, they make rash decisions, or decisions based on emotions or past outcomes. These peoples emotions and rationales are most times non-reflective of the matchup itself. They are chosen as a result of an unwillingness by people to try and put in the work needed to understand and overcome this confused state of mind. Usually, if a trend is working or is giving the books a good determination of how a game will be wagered on. They will continue it until the public or until some group gets a hold of what is going on and thus takes advantage of what is being done.

Big Lebowski, good observation, about the trend you notice happening. Things like this I feel happen for a reason, and if you can notice things like them and profit from them instead of getting caught by them. Hey, then I think that your one step ahead in the game. But cant stop there, the books have all sorts of different tricks up their sleeves. Try not to be Joe Schmo , the guy they are looking to hook. Instead, look at it from the books point of view, and you might be able to decipher what is going on. They are good, thats why they are making all the money, but we should not let them have it so easily.
 

TheBigLebowski+

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IF Michigan covers, I'm going to throw a few units on Wisconsin. I just see this scenario happening too many times to ignore it.


If Mich -7, then 2 units Wiscy -3.
 

olddog

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Big Lebow- if Mich -7 covers, it has no affect on Wicsy game. Some would say that 'reversion to the mean' would make Iowa a better bet if Mich covers because nothing is 100% and everything reverts back towards 50%.

Trend betting never works over the long run because ALL trends change. And for every trend you can show me favoring one team, I can generally find an (almost) equally strong trend favoring the other team.

Betting Mon nite home teams, especially H dogs, was a good trend for many years, but it died over the last 10 yrs--but squares still bet that trend to this day. Home teams are 3-8 ATS this year and home dogs are 0-3 ATS.

Bottom line: handicap the games and use trends as one of many factors in your final decision.
 

TheBigLebowski+

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my sole decision to take wiscy isn't based completely on the mich/osu game. Iowa is a bad team away, and wiscy has beaten tough opponents at home (OSU, MSU). Just like was stated above by another member, both teams seem to be equal, and their rankings could be reversed with a badger win.

I realize that there is the other side of the coin for every trend. But if you think you see one, why not bet it?? If it can win 55% of the time, then that's all that matters.

GOOD LUCK!!
 

Jarbo

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LEWBOWSKI
I hope you did not lose too much on the IOWA game.

Take 2 weeks off.................. and the quit
icon_wink.gif


Luck
icon_cool.gif
 

olddog

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lebow either spend a bunch of time capping and still be prepared to possibly lose or look for trends and be prepared to definitely lose
 

TheBigLebowski+

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hey, the trend went 2-1 this week = winner. You can't win em all. Not to mention i posted this up here looking for input, not insults.

GOOD LUCK!!
 

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