is it good or bad to fade the public on major games?

[XXXylic]

hello all, just found the forum, looks very promising! one question- is it best to fade the public on big tv games blindly or not?

 

[uralooozer2]

hello all, just found the forum, looks very promising! one question- is it best to fade the public on big tv games blindly or not?

That depends on if they win or lose:missingte........Just kidding.

Fading the public blindly on every game will not win you money. But it will if you do on selected games. It really depends on the situaton. Lack of line movement is just as important as a line that moves 3 points in an hour. I faded the public on the Ole Miss game because the public was heavily on the favorite Texas Tech and the line didnt budge. That told me that there was an even amount of money on each side. Smart money on Mississipi and public money on Tech. You always want to be on the smart side obvously.

Another situation I look at is where a popular public team such as Texas Tech, Boise St. or USC is the favorite and the public is split 50/50 or maybe even on the Dog. I try to guess where the public is just as much as where the line is before I start looking at a game. If I think TOO MUCH of the PUBLIC is on the Dog, I take the favorite.

There are several more situations that may apply but great question. Im sure this post will get a ton of responses. And some great answers. \

Good luck.

 

[artiesliver]

During the playoffs there are more people wagering that may not wager regularly during the regular season. Therefore, IMO, fading the public at this point of the season (the playoffs) is probably not a bad thing.

 

[papicker]

During the playoffs there are more people wagering that may not wager regularly during the regular season. Therefore, IMO, fading the public at this point of the season (the playoffs) is probably not a bad thing.

not only this but less options too choose from.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Betting blindly is always a bad idea. There's a perception among bettors that the public always loses, but there's no basis for this. In truth they win about as often as they lose.

The best advice is to handicap the games yourself, then bet whatever angle your own work shows to have the best chance of winning. If you haven't capped a game, betting on it is the equivalent of flipping a coin.

 

[coitus_maximus]

Best question to ask, is how does the book make the most money.

then.....BET AGAINST IT.

 

[MightyGinseng]

As my econ professor would say:

It depends.

Really though, bookies make money off of poor bankroll management. Over the long run they make bank off of short-run decision making by people trying to win their money back or force action.

Big games may provide a small edge fading the public, but I wouldn't handicap based off that alone.

 

[Jetplane]

FADE big pub games that have a media darling... the only real darling left is TENN imo. So if the pub is on tenn... probably hit the opponent up for some money.