Is Homecourt overvalued? (6-8.5 point spreads) Replies welcomed

[MickyD]

I have been working on a theory in the NBA and College about the over or under value of the home team in games with spreads between 6 to 8.5. (why this number - like I say a theory) Had a little time today so I went back in the NBA and college using Don Best closing lines and found some interesting numbers. Yes I understand this is only a small sample size. went back from yesterday to 2-7-04. Used all games that Don Best had lines for, NBA college regular and added games as well as bracket buster games. My initial thought was that too much value is given to home teams and the lines are off, especially in the games that have lines from 6 to 8.5. I also thought away teams favored by these numbers were a good value because of this overvaluing of the home team. Found out I was right in NBA, Partially WRONG in college. Here are the numbers:

NBA - Home team favored by 6 - 8.5 points
record: 11-15 ATS with underdog winning outright 9 times

NBA - Away teams favored by 6-8.5 points
record: 7-2 ATS with only 1 outright win by underdog

College - Home team fav by 6-8.5 points
record: 51-35 ATS underdog wins outright 18 times (I did not expect the home team to do this well)

College Away team favored by 6-8.5 points
record: 10-14 10 outright wins by underdog

Conclusion: NBA away teams favored by 6-8.5 are a good value bet. Home teams favored by same number are not. There actually seems to be some value on playing these road dogs on money line.
College home court is huge key. More so than in NBA and home dogs of 6-8.5 are a solid money line investment. They tend to win outright when they cover (10 of 14 times in this study)

These numbers are only about a 3 week sample and part of that included the All Star break. Also these numbers are based on closing lines and may include some steam or sharp moves that changed the line to the number I used in my study. But as the books tighten up the numbers I see a little edge in playing using these trends.

I would love to see others opinions and thoeries on this subject.

 

[Matt24]

Great Info Micky. The best thing I took from it if is you are going to bet a college road dog between 6 and 8.5, you ought to play them on the moneyline as well. I had NCState last night and they won outright as 6-7 pt dogs. In most cases if you cover 6 you are going to win outright, so I will definately look to the moneyline more in these situations.

 

[MickyD]

I agree Matt. I don't know if many will read this but I have noticed those home dogs seem to win when they cover

 

[Matt24]

Probably not Micky, most people around here don't look at the good threads.

 

[MickyD]

Matt,
I think this is a pretty good forum for most part and info is info. If mine helps anyone great. I also had NC state last night as well. Got a little scared off though as many of the cappers I respect were on G Tech. Sometimes having so many good cappers makes it tough to trust your own plays.

 

[oldirtyku]

good thread

 

[truelyhandicapping]

keep working on it. sounds great.

all i do is systems, the only problem is the system itself will run in cycles. whether that is vegas causing it by the lines, or if it is just or little world we live in.

it seems when ever i get a great systemit only last a few weeks, then goes in complete opp directions.

hope it works out and keep tracking it.

good luck

 

[MickyD]

For those who care here is update thru 2-29


I have updated the numbers in the 6-8.5 range thru Monday 2-29

NBA Home fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 14-19 underdog wins 12 outright
NBA road fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 8-3 underdog wins 3 outright

CBB Home Fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 65-44 underdog wins 23 outright
CBB road fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 14-17 underdog wins 10 outright

 

[truelyhandicapping]

some of the thread hitting over 60%.
keep updating it.

like t see it.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> CBB Home Fav of 6-8.5
record ATS = 65-44 underdog wins 23 outright <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

so the home favorite of 6-8.5 covered 65 times & lost 44 times? or is it the reverse?

 

[MickyD]

Savant,
yes in CBB the home favorite of 6-8.5 has covered ATS 65 times and not covered 44 times. Of those 44 that were not covers the underdog won the game outright 23 times.