I think there is too much focus on the medium term trend on this one. ISU had a stretch of covering the spread and beating Iowa outright from '99 to '05. Short term and long term all point to Iowa. Iowa has outscored ISU 87 to 15 in the last 3 years. Iowa's talent is greater at almost every position. Tom Herman has tried to implement his fairly complex spread offense without a ton of success thus far-- then plug in a raw QB with only 1 game under his belt. Jantz for ISU was about as bad as it gets in his opener at home against an FCS team(18 for 40, 3 picks - but did run for 80). I see the Iowa Defense causing a lot of problems. Keep in mind, Iowa has given up 1 touchdown in the last 18 quarters of play to ISU, and that was a garbage touchdown in a 35-7 victory. It will be all Iowa in this one, even with the sharp money on ISU.
This coming from an ISU fan.
This coming from an ISU fan.
Iowa brings back just 9 starters from last season. Not nearly as many as in the last two years where they've dominated ISU. This is a much different Hawkeye team. And no three year starter at QB. As for Iowa's talent, they've always had more talent than ISU. It hasn't mattered much in this series.
I'm sure we could go back and forth on this for a while. But Iowa obviously did not have a 3 year starting QB in '08 and '09. Stanzi threw 1 pick for every touchdown in '09, and overall was very mediocre at best. I agree with the rivalry theme, and Iowa returning only 10 starters. But I think the key is the Jantz's inexperience -- only winning the starting nod b/c Jerome Tiller was declared ineligible. I don't think he has grasped the offense, and ISU can not just hand the ball off like they did last year. Much of the running threat went away with O-line and running back. And people forget that ISU was actually in contention for the Big 12 north title many of the years they played Iowa well. Not so much any more.
Jantz is a juco transfer from CA. He has been in a quarterback battle with Jerome Tiller(who was not good in his limited game time last 2 years), and Tiller was declared academically ineligible 2 weeks ago, so Jantz got the starting nod. Overall, very little is know about Jantz. He was horrific in his first 3 quarters against Norther Iowa, but then made a miraculous comeback in the 4th. He had a 4th and 10 from the 26, down by 6 points, and made a touchdown throw on the run to a guy in the corner of the endzone. He did have 80 rushing yards on 20 attempts, and I think this will be his biggest threat vs. Iowa.
BUT 18 of 40 with 3 picks against UNI. I would assume that doesn't improve against one better defenses in the big 10. Also, IA hasn't given up a meaningful touchdown to ISU since 2006.
Iowa 31 ISU 10
Honestly, I couldn't name a player on either team. But if you only base you wagers on line movement vs bets placed, this one sticks out. Sportsinsights is showing 85% on Iowa and some other sites have the percentage on Iowa as high as 90%. Yet the line remains at Iowa-6.5. What that tells me is that a lot of $100 a game betters are on Iowa and the sharps are on Iowa St.
Another theory is that while books usually prefer close to even action on games, occasionally they'll be comfortable with lopsided action when they think their players are on the wrong side.
Either way, if you're a Iowa backer I wouldn't bet the farm on this one, and if you're a line watcher I'd take Iowa St+6.5 or +7 (if you can find it) and throw a little on the ML.
Another theory is that while books usually prefer close to even action on games, occasionally they'll be comfortable with lopsided action when they think their players are on the wrong side.
Either way, if you're a Iowa backer I wouldn't bet the farm on this one, and if you're a line watcher I'd take Iowa St+6.5 or +7 (if you can find it) and throw a little on the ML.
Nice hit AJ!
