Interesting stat in play for both games this weekend

[justanobserver]

In weeks 20 and beyond if opponent was over in previous game and you were under you were 13-2 ATS and 10-5 SU

week >= 20 and op:O and p:U
SU: 10-5-0 (5.20, 66.7%) Teaser Records
ATS: 13-2-0 (5.60, 86.7%) avg line: 0.4 +6: 14-1-0 (93.3%) -6: 7-7-1 (50.0%) +10: 14-1-0 (93.3%) -10: 4-10-1 (28.6%)
O/U: 8-7-0 (2.83, 53.3%) avg total: 44.1 +6: 4-11-0 (26.7%) -6: 12-3-0 (80.0%) +10: 4-11-0 (26.7%) -10: 13-2-0 (86.7%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 29.3 110.7 36.5 22.3 245.7 1.5 6.4 7.8 5.9 5.8 26.1
Opp 25.6 98.3 33.1 18.6 209.3 2.2 1.9 6.3 6.7 5.8 20.9
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Jan 27, 2002 view Sunday 21 2001 Patriots Steelers away 7-0 7-3 7-14 3-0 24-17 9.0 38.5 7 16 2.5 9.2 -6.8 W W O 0
Jan 19, 2003 view Sunday 20 2002 Raiders Titans home 14-7 10-10 3-7 14-0 41-24 -8.5 47.0 17 8.5 18.0 13.2 4.8 W W O 0
Jan 18, 2004 view Sunday 20 2003 Eagles Panthers home 0-0 3-7 0-7 0-0 3-14 -4.5 37.0 -11 -15.5 -20.0 -17.8 -2.2 L L U 0
Jan 18, 2004 view Sunday 20 2003 Patriots Colts home 7-0 8-0 6-7 3-7 24-14 -4.0 43.5 10 6.0 -5.5 0.2 -5.8 W W U 0
Jan 23, 2005 view Sunday 20 2004 Eagles Falcons home 7-0 7-10 6-0 7-0 27-10 -6.0 37.5 17 11.0 -0.5 5.2 -5.8 W W U 0
Jan 23, 2005 view Sunday 20 2004 Patriots Steelers away 10-3 14-0 7-14 10-10 41-27 -3.0 35.5 14 11.0 32.5 21.8 10.8 W W O 0
Feb 06, 2005 view Sunday 22 2004 Eagles Patriots home 0-0 7-7 7-7 7-10 21-24 7.0 47.5 -3 4.0 -2.5 0.8 -3.2 L W U 0
Jan 22, 2006 view Sunday 20 2005 Seahawks Panthers home 10-0 10-7 7-0 7-7 34-14 -4.0 43.0 20 16.0 5.0 10.5 -5.5 W W O 0
Jan 20, 2008 view Sunday 20 2007 Giants Packers away 3-0 3-10 14-7 0-3 23-20 7.0 44.0 3 10.0 -1.0 4.5 -5.5 W W U 1
Jan 18, 2009 view Sunday 20 2008 Ravens Steelers away 0-6 7-7 0-3 7-7 14-23 6.0 34.0 -9 -3.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 L L O 0
Jan 24, 2010 view Sunday 20 2009 Vikings Saints away 14-7 0-7 7-7 7-7 28-31 3.5 53.5 -3 0.5 5.5 3.0 2.5 L W O 1
Feb 06, 2011 view Sunday 22 2010 Packers Steelers home 14-0 7-10 0-7 10-8 31-25 -2.5 45.0 6 3.5 11.0 7.2 3.8 W W O 0
Jan 22, 2012 view Sunday 20 2011 Ravens Patriots away 0-3 10-10 10-3 0-7 20-23 7.0 50.5 -3 4.0 -7.5 -1.8 -5.8 L W U 0
Feb 03, 2013 view Sunday 22 2012 Ravens Fortyniners away 7-3 14-3 7-17 6-8 34-31 4.0 48.5 3 7 16.5 11.8 4.8 W W O 0
Jan 19, 2014 view Sunday 20 2013 Broncos Patriots home 3-0 10-3 7-0 6-13 26-16 -5.0 56.5 10 5 -14.5 -4.8 -9.8 W W U 0
Jan 18, 2015 view Sunday 20 2014 Packers Seahawks away 7.0 46.5
Jan 18, 2015 view Sunday 20 2014 Colts Patriots away 7.0 53.5

Interesting thing is that this is in play for both teams this weekend.

 

[justanobserver]

Also, week 20 and greater road dogs playing an opponent coming off a game that went over are 11-4-1 ATS and 7-9 SU

week >= 20 and op:O and AD
SU: 7-9-0 (-0.88, 43.8%) Teaser Records
ATS: 11-4-1 (4.97, 73.3%) avg line: 5.8 +6: 14-2-0 (87.5%) -6: 6-10-0 (37.5%) +10: 15-1-0 (93.8%) -10: 4-11-1 (26.7%)
O/U: 8-8-0 (-0.31, 50.0%) avg total: 44.6 +6: 3-13-0 (18.8%) -6: 10-6-0 (62.5%) +10: 2-13-1 (13.3%) -10: 13-2-1 (86.7%)

Also in play for both road dogs this weekend.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I don't understand the 1st system.......

 

[lostinamerica]

In week 20 (and after), if opponent (Seattle) was over the total in prior game, and you (Green Bay) were under the total in prior game, then the trend for you the following week is 13-2 ATS and 10-5 SU.

GL

 

[justanobserver]

I don't understand the 1st system.......

Team A's game went under in previous week (Applies to GB and IND) and their opponent Team B's game went over (Applies to NE and SEA) then in weeks 20 and greater (Conference championships and Superbowl) Team A is 13-2 ATS and 10-5 SU

 

[justanobserver]

This way be kind of skewed when applying to these particular games though, because typically if your previous game went under in the playoffs and your opponents went over, one would assume that means you are working with the better defense, which i don't think is true in both of these games.

I only ran this scenario looking for some plays on totals but when i saw this i thought it was interesting enough to share. BOL to everyone this weekend.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Team A's game went under in previous week (Applies to GB and IND) and their opponent Team B's game went over (Applies to NE and SEA) then in weeks 20 and greater (Conference championships and Superbowl) Team A is 13-2 ATS and 10-5 SU

Okay, understand now......the "you" & some other words had me confused.

I always use team A vs team B references......

Thanks man.......

 

[TheComputerGroup]

This way be kind of skewed when applying to these particular games though, because typically if your previous game went under in the playoffs and your opponents went over, one would assume that means you are working with the better defense, which i don't think is true in both of these games.

I only ran this scenario looking for some plays on totals but when i saw this i thought it was interesting enough to share. BOL to everyone this weekend.

I have a ? for you......can you look up how teams have done on conf champ games say past 20 years......for instance, does the spread come into play.......if I'm not mistaken, the spread rarely matters in conf champ games.

 

[sendacash]

I'm showing the winner in week #20 is 24-3-1 ATS since 1995 or 88.9%. Which is slightly better than all playoff games since 1995 (121-26-4 ATS = 82.3%). Which is about the same as all non playoff games(4060-830-135 since 1995 = 83%). Somewhat of a small sample relatively speaking, a bad bounce here or there could bring that % right back in line with the long term trend.

 

[justanobserver]

I have a ? for you......can you look up how teams have done on conf champ games say past 20 years......for instance, does the spread come into play.......if I'm not mistaken, the spread rarely matters in conf champ games.

Here is since 2001 from away dogs perspective:

week = 20 and AD
SU: 7-17-0 (-4.96, 29.2%) Teaser Records
ATS: 10-13-1 (0.58, 43.5%) avg line: 5.5 +6: 17-6-1 (73.9%) -6: 6-18-0 (25.0%) +10: 19-5-0 (79.2%) -10: 5-18-1 (21.7%)
O/U: 13-10-1 (1.33, 56.5%) avg total: 43.0 +6: 7-17-0 (29.2%) -6: 18-6-0 (75.0%) +10: 3-20-1 (13.0%) -10: 20-3-1 (87.0%)

So away dogs are pretty even ATS but not great SU.

Interesting to see those teaser plays though. it looks like away dogs that were teased +10 are winning at an almost 80% clip and O/U -10 is paying out at an 87% clip.

GB +17.5, IND +17, GB O36.5, and IND O43.5 would be a nice 4 way teaser

 

[TomandJerry]

I have a ? for you......can you look up how teams have done on conf champ games say past 20 years......for instance, does the spread come into play.......if I'm not mistaken, the spread rarely matters in conf champ games.

Computer, I run in 10 years, too long to pull in 20 years

H and week = 20 and season >= 2004

SU: 13-7-0 (3.40, 65.0%) ATS: 10-10-0 (-0.40, 50.0%) avg line: -3.8 O/U: 11-8-1 (2.75, 57.9%) avg total: 44.1

Week Season Team Opp Final Line Total SUm ATSm SUr ATSr OUr 20 2004 Eagles Falcons 27-10 -6.0 37.5 17 11.0 W W U 20 2004 Steelers Patriots 27-41 3.0 35.5 -14 -11.0 L L O 20 2005 Broncos Steelers 17-34 -3.5 42.0 -17 -20.5 L L O 20 2005 Seahawks Panthers 34-14 -4.0 43.0 20 16.0 W W O 20 2006 Bears Saints 39-14 -3.0 43.0 25 22.0 W W O 20 2006 Colts Patriots 38-34 -3.5 48.5 4 0.5 W W O 20 2007 Packers Giants 20-23 -7.0 44.0 -3 -10.0 L L U 20 2007 Patriots Chargers 21-12 -14.5 46.5 9 -5.5 W L U 20 2008 Cardinals Eagles 32-25 3.5 47.0 7 10.5 W W O 20 2008 Steelers Ravens 23-14 -6.0 34.0 9 3.0 W W O 20 2009 Colts Jets 30-17 -8.5 40.0 13 4.5 W W O 20 2009 Saints Vikings 31-28 -3.5 53.5 3 -0.5 W L O 20 2010 Bears Packers 14-21 3.5 42.5 -7 -3.5 L L U 20 2010 Steelers Jets 24-19 -4.0 38.0 5 1.0 W W O 20 2011 Fortyniners Giants 17-20 -2.0 41.5 -3 -5.0 L L U 20 2011 Patriots Ravens 23-20 -7.0 50.5 3 -4.0 W L U 20 2012 Falcons Fortyniners 24-28 3.5 48.5 -4 -0.5 L L O 20 2012 Patriots Ravens 13-28 -8.0 51.0 -15 -23 L L U 20 2013 Broncos Patriots 26-16 -5.0 56.5 10 5 W W U 20 2013 Seahawks Fortyniners 23-17 -4.0 40.0 6 2.0 W W P 20 2014 Seahawks Packers -7.0 46.5 20 2014 Patriots Colts -7.0 53.5

 

[TomandJerry]

both game in 2007, spread comes into side pick. 1 game on 2009 and 1 game in 2011, Rams/Eagles in 2001. That's all for 2001 to 2014


5 games out of 26

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Thanks for the information guys.......so it seems, the winner of the games past 20 years is 24-3-1 ATS......with these stats, if Seattle wins, they usually will cover, & Colts should win SU if I like them with the points.......good stuff!

The readers are the way to go in the conf chapionsips.......

I'm looking to play a 3 team.10 point teaser: Colts +17, Colts Over 43.5 & Seattle +2.5........I don't see Seattle losing IMO......

 

[sendacash]

Thanks for the information guys.......so it seems, the winner of the games past 20 years is 24-3-1 ATS......with these stats, if Seattle wins, they usually will cover, & Colts should win SU if I like them with the points.......good stuff!

The readers are the way to go in the conf chapionsips.......

I'm looking to play a 3 team.10 point teaser: Colts +17, Colts Over 43.5 & Seattle +2.5........I don't see Seattle losing IMO......

24-3-1 (28 games) is obviously only going back 14 seasons. Looks like sportsdatabase does not have playoff data before 2001 season or I don't know how to query for it.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

24-3-1 (28 games) is obviously only going back 14 seasons. Looks like sportsdatabase does not have playoff data before 2001 season or I don't know how to query for it.

Lmao.......I was thinking cause I asked for past 20 years, the math of 24+3+1= 28/2= 14 years.......it just didn't click, lol!

 

[TomandJerry]

24-3-1 (28 games) is obviously only going back 14 seasons. Looks like sportsdatabase does not have playoff data before 2001 season or I don't know how to query for it.

same as killersport