I don't think starting QB's are worth 5-5' points. Certainly not 75% of them ! I don't think any player is worth 5-5' points.
I do think that most people think that Wr, RB and QB injuries impact the game the most but that is not true. It's just an assumption.
As far as injuries go, the starting Center is worth the most points. If the Center is out, you should stay away from the game.
I do think that most people think that Wr, RB and QB injuries impact the game the most but that is not true. It's just an assumption.
As far as injuries go, the starting Center is worth the most points. If the Center is out, you should stay away from the game.
They usually don't adjust the lines and it is an opportunity to get a line edge when a key RB, WR or even CB is out which can make a huge difference. Same as QOH mentions for key OL like C and LT.
I know TB was missing Mike Evans in week 1 and the line didn't move from TB -3. He caught 12 TDs in 2014 or ~ 5 pts/game.
Check out ESPNs stats where they list under Team stats the pts/game for each player. I usually deduct 1/2 the starter's production from the line for the backup.
I know TB was missing Mike Evans in week 1 and the line didn't move from TB -3. He caught 12 TDs in 2014 or ~ 5 pts/game.
Check out ESPNs stats where they list under Team stats the pts/game for each player. I usually deduct 1/2 the starter's production from the line for the backup.
Case and point the opening game of the year. Was 3. Maybe even 2.5 at one point when it looked like Brady would be suspended. It closed around 7, 7.5. Thats about 5 points. Steelers had players out but patriots D also was starting a lot of new guys. Malcolm butler is pretty much the #1 this year. Compared to a Revis last year....wilfork...browner...
If the line is based on perception and what is widely known...than you would think No. That Suggs, a respected defensive leader wouldn't get that attention and this is just a down year for the Ravens. Because what people perceive is that with the ravens organization, that the replacement will be just as productive. The offensive side of the ball seems like it should matter more but honestly it is the opposite. It is the defenses job to Stop the offense...not the other way around.. another point and example is Kam Chancellor. How many pts was that worth? One, maybe two? Max. And you see how much of a blow that has been to that team. St Louis put up 30 something. And rodgers handled them pretty much.
The Ravens haven't been w/o one if their 3 big defensive linemen since 1998......Suggs, Lewis & can't remember the other guys name.
Either way, that's 17 years having great defensive players back there that will not be playing back there anymore......IMO, its like the Ravens have most their identity in defense, & you can basically say the whole team, because the Ravens lived off their defense.
Either way, that's 17 years having great defensive players back there that will not be playing back there anymore......IMO, its like the Ravens have most their identity in defense, & you can basically say the whole team, because the Ravens lived off their defense.
I guess I have more questions than answers as well but I definitely agree. That's just my opinion. Many things factor into the line. And defensive star player/leaders are not valued the same as offensive players. You can argue Kam Chancellor and Suggs are quarterbacks of their defenses. It is much harder as a defensive unit to pick up the slack of a leader who is out than it is to pick up the slack of an offensive star leader that is out. We see it time and time again. But yet the lines indicate the opposite. Good shit Powerz.
In the spring - The line between ATL and Dallas was -5.5 Romo goes down and the line opens at PK yet Dallas is 2-0 That line was adjusted for the QB being out same as MOb's example with Brady being in.
I dont think they adjust for Defensive players Baltimore was -3 in the spring they are minus 2.5 at open
FYI the Spring line for ST Loo -1 and it opened -1 and quickly the steelers got bet up to -1.5...my line on that game was -2......Pouncy the starting centre of the steelers has yet to play and no adjustment, Steelers wacked the NFC west last week they get wacked this week
I dont think they adjust for Defensive players Baltimore was -3 in the spring they are minus 2.5 at open
FYI the Spring line for ST Loo -1 and it opened -1 and quickly the steelers got bet up to -1.5...my line on that game was -2......Pouncy the starting centre of the steelers has yet to play and no adjustment, Steelers wacked the NFC west last week they get wacked this week
This is from the Pitts/Ravens game 2012...Line opened with Ben as the starter. Word came out he would miss game due to shoulder injury.
Pittsburgh went from a 3.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point underdog, indicating that The Greek, a well-respected sportsbook, sees the drop off from Big Ben to Leftwich as 6 points, in regards to setting the line.
Of course, every injury situation is different and specific line moves depend on a multitude of factors, like backup quarterback, opponent, shading for public overreaction, etc.
Pittsburgh went from a 3.5-point favorite to a 2.5-point underdog, indicating that The Greek, a well-respected sportsbook, sees the drop off from Big Ben to Leftwich as 6 points, in regards to setting the line.
Of course, every injury situation is different and specific line moves depend on a multitude of factors, like backup quarterback, opponent, shading for public overreaction, etc.
