Follow or fade me on this side play at your own peril. @)
I'm betting the Auburn Tigers will cover the +7 points over the LSU Tigers.
The game is being played at the Auburn Tigers home court (Auburn Arena) in Auburn, Alabama tonight at 7PM EST.
Both of these teams are members of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). It can be seen on the SEC Network.
Auburn Tigers are 9-11 overall and 6-2 in conference play (tied for 5th place). They are 7-3 SU this year at home.
They have lost their last three games. Auburn is averaging 74.4 points per game and they are shooting 41.6 percent from the floor while defensively they are allowing 78 points and their opponents are shooting 44.3 percent. Kareem Canty leads Auburn averaging 18.5 points and 5.3 assists per game. Tyler Harris is averaging 15.3 points and 8.3 rebounds, T.J. Dunans is averaging 12.4 points, and Conmeon Bowers is averaging 10.7 points and 9.1 rebounds. Auburn is 7-3 at home and 3-5 in the SEC.
LSU Tigers are 13-8 overall and 2-4 in conference play (tied for 2nd place). They are 2-4 SU this year on the road.
They are coming off of a loss to number one ranked Oklahoma in the Big12 vs. SEC challenge. LSU is averaging 81 points per game and they are shooting 47 percent from the floor while defensively they are allowing 75.7 points and their opponents are shooting 43.8 percent. Ben Simmons leads LSU averaging 19.5 points and 12.5 rebounds per game. Craig Victor II is averaging 13 points and 6.3 rebounds, Keith Hornsby is averaging 12.9 points, Tim Quarterman is averaging 11.9 points.
According to the most current up to date (Monday 1st) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, Auburn Tigers are ranked #171 and LSU Tigers are ranked #59.
Auburn's offense is ranked #166, while their defense is ranked #197.
LSU's offense is ranked #38, while their defense is ranked #103.
Based solely on the above KENPOM rankings, LSU should administer a beat-down on Auburn, right?
LSU Nearly Upset No. 1 Sooners
LSU (13-8 SU, 6-2 SEC, 6-12 ATS) played great basketball on Saturday but came up just short of upsetting No. 1 Oklahoma in Baton Rouge, 77-75. While Simmons is clearly the nation’s best freshman and a lock No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, he’s running second right now to Oklahoma’s Buddy Hield in the national player of the year conversation. Hield, a senior guard, was the better player on Saturday with 32 points. But it was Isaiah Cousins who hit a go-ahead jumper with 4 seconds left. LSU had led by as many as 14. Simmons finished with 14 points, nine rebounds and five assists. He wasn’t the guy with the ball in his hands at the end of the game, however. That was Tim Quarterman, who had a driving layup blocked as time expired but looked as if he was fouled. Simmons had just one shot attempt in the game’s final 10 minutes and only seven in the game. That can’t happen. Quarterman led LSU with 18 points. The Tigers shot 49.1 percent for the game and were a solid 11-for-23 from long range. But LSU was outscored in points off turnovers 17-9.
Auburn Gets Bowers Back
Auburn (9-11 SU, 3-5 SEC, 8-11 ATS) lost its third straight on Saturday, 73-63 to Oklahoma State in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Kareem Canty led Auburn with 21 points and Horace Spencer had a career 11 rebounds and six blocks in a career-best 27 minutes. That was about the extent of the good news. The Tigers were without forward Cinmeon Bowers, the team’s third-leading scorer and top rebounder due to suspension for a disciplinary issue. Coach Bruce Pearl wouldn’t elaborate on what happened but did say Bowers was expected to return for this game. Bowers is averaging 10.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game; Spencer got the start in his spot. Oklahoma State had been winless on the road this season. Auburn has trailed by at least 10 points in all of its past eight games and has lost six of those. This is Auburn’s only regular-season meeting with LSU.
ATS Trends:
The LSU Tigers are:
- 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games.
- 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. Southeastern.
The Auburn Tigers are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Technical trends aside, we should be cognizant that Auburn always plays LSU hard.
Look at the head to head history from a SU and ATS perspective.
Auburn is 6-4 SU (60%) and an eye-popping 8-2 ATS! That 80% ATS! WOW!
CONCLUSION
KEY THOUGHT: I think LSU will be coming into this game a bit spent from an emotional level after that tough loss to Oklahoma. They were so close, yet
were denied. They could easily come into this game flat and take the Auburn team for granted. I realize LSU has phenom BEN SIMMONS, but he's only 1 player. The rest of his team is mediocre IMO.
KEY THOUGHT: Auburn's CINMEON BOWERS, the team's 3rd leading scorer and top rebounder returns after his suspension. This will certainly give the home team a massive lift. I expect the home crowd to be in an absolute frenzy, and the Auburn players will feed off the energy.
KEY THOUGHT: The ATS underdog has covered 4 out of the last 5 meetings between these two teams.
I expect a dogfight in this game. Auburn coach Bruce Pearl will have his team ready for this one. This has the makings of a TRAP GAME for LSU, and it certainly wouldn't be out of the question for Auburn to score the SU victory.
The Auburn ML is not currently available at the time of this post, but it should be rather juicy! I'm not advising to bet the ML, but I wouldn't blame you if you did. I'll be satisfied with the +7!
BET AUBURN +7
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
hno:
