Follow or fade me on this play at your own peril. @)
I believe the San Francisco Dons will cover the +5 and possibly win SU over Portland at the Pilots home court (Chiles Center) in Portland, Oregon.
Both these teams are members of the West Coast Conference (WCC).
San Francisco is 10-9 overall and 4-5 in conference play (tied for 5th place). They are 3-4 SU this year on the road.
Portland is 9-13 overall and 3-6 in conference play (tied for 6th place). They are 7-3 SU this year at home.
According to the most current up to date (Wednesday 27th) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, San Francisco is ranked #216 and Portland #214.
San Francisco's offense is ranked #128, while their defense is ranked #316.
Portland's offense is ranked #182, while their defense is ranked #247.
According to the above KENPOM rankings as well as Portland's strong home record (and San Francisco's mediocre road record), the Pilots should
cruise to a comfortable spread covering victory over San Francisco, right?
Watson Leads Dons over Bulldogs
Pretty much in the WCC it is Gonzaga, St Mary’s and BYU and then everyone else. The Dons are clearly apart of the everyone else group that is just looking to get to one of the lesser postseason tournaments. The Dons are currently 4-5 in the WCC, but they do come in off a nice 74-61 road win over Santa Clara. Leading the way for the Dons was Devin Watson, who had 22 points, five boards and six assists. The Dons did trail the game by three at the half, but then Watson really took over in scoring 17 of his 22 points in the 2nd half. Uche Ofoegbu had 21 points in the win, while Tim Derksen had 19 points to round out the double digit scorers in the game.The Dons really won the game from long range and at the charity stripe as they hit 41.2% of their long range shots and 79.2% from the free throw line, while the Bulldogs hit just 41.7% from the line and just 33.3% from long range. This is not a deep team as they have just four players that average more than 5.1 ppg on the year. Devin Watson (20.4 ppg), Tim Derksen (15.3 ppg) and Ronnie Boyce (10.6 ppg) are the double digit scorers for the team. The Dons have been a decent offensive team this year as they come in at 114th in scoring, putting up 76.4 ppg, and 160th in shooting, connecting on 44.3% of their shots. They are also 92nd in three point shooting (36.7%), but just 212th at the free throw line (68.5%). On defense it is not good as they are 285th in points allowed (76.6 ppg), 189th in defensive FG% (43.4%) and 321st in three point defense (37.9%).
Pilots Continue To Struggle In Loss To Gaels
The Portland Pilots started their WCC Season at 2-0, but have since fallen on hard times as they have won just one of their last six games in conference play and tat one win was a bit shocking as they beat BYU as 9.5 point home dogs. It really isn’t shocking that they are struggling as this was not expected to a be a team that did much in the WCC this year. On Saturday night they paid a visit to St Mary’s and lost 89-74, but they did cover the 16.5 point spread on a last second FG. Was a bad beat for anyone that had the Gaels in the game. D’Marques Tyson led the team in scoring on this night with 16 points, while Bryce Pressley (15), Alec Wintering (13) and Jazz Johnson (12) round out the double digit scoring for the pilots in the game, no one else had more than four points.The Pilots had a very solid night shooting the ball as they hit 45.9% of their shots overall and 45.8% from deep but the Gaels had a much better shooting night as they his 62.5% of their shots overall and 47.4% of their shots from long range. Alec Wintering (17.7 ppg) and Bryce Pressley (14.2 ppg) ar the only two players that average in double figures for the Pilots. Portland has been a solid offensive team this year as they come in at 86th in scoring, putting up 78.0 ppg, but they are just 239th in shooting, connecting on 42.9% of their shots. They are also 68nd in three point shooting (37.1%),and 159th from the free throw line (70.1%). On defense it is not good at all as they are 302nd in points allowed (78.1 ppg), 232nd in defensive FG% (44.1%) and 293rd in three point defense (36.7%).
ATS Trends
San Francisco Dons are:
35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 road games
6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games
6-2 ATS in their last overall 8 games
4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS cover
Portland Pilots are:
2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS cover
3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Yes, these are indeed compelling technical trends favoring San Francisco! However, the real eye opener is San Francisco always seems to be
play Portland exceptionally well in this series!
Look at the head to head history from a SU and ATS perspective.
KEY ATS STAT: San Francisco is 23-9-1 ATS over Portland in this series! That's approximately 72% ATS!
San Francisco is 9-1 SU overall in the last 10 games against Portland! That's 90% SU!
San Francisco is 4-0 SU @ Portland in the last 4 games! That's 100% SU!
San Francisco is 7-3 ATS overall in the last 10 games against Portland! That's 70% ATS!
San Francisco is 3-1 ATS @ Portland in the last 4 games! That's 75% ATS!
From my analysis, I think San Francisco will play Portland very tough. It will be a see saw affair with many lead changes.
I feel this will come down to the bitter end, and San Francisco will stay within the +5.
Based on San Francisco's historical SU record against Portland, it may be worthwhile to explore a ML wager on the Dons. Currently,
it's San Francisco +180. I really feel this has a legitimate chance to cash, but for purposes of the thread, I'll be happy with
getting the +5 points.
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
