Follow or fade me on this play at your own peril. @)
THIS IS TRULY AN UGLY "DON'T MAKE SENSE" PICK, BUT HEAR ME OUT!
I believe the South Alabama Jaguars will cover the +17 over Louisiana-Lafayette at the Ragin' Canjuns home court (Cajundome) in Lafayette, Louisiana. These teams are members of the Sun Belt Conference.
South Alabama is 7-10 overall and 2-4 in conference play (tied for 7th place). They are 3-5 SU this year on the road.
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-8 overall and 3-3 in conference play (5th place). They are a perfect 5-0 SU this year at home
According to the most current up to date (Wednesday 20th) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, South Alabama is ranked #271 and Louisiana-Lafayetteis #103.
South Alabama's offense is ranked #311, while their defense is ranked #200.
Louisiana-Lafayette's offense is ranked #51, while their defense is ranked #186.
According to the above KENPOM rankings, the Ragin' Canjuns should administer a wood shed beating on the Jaguars, right?
SOUTH ALABAMA SHOWING OVERNIGHT IMPROVEMENT
South Alabama shot 44.7% (11-25) from the 3 point line in its most recent home OT win (last Saturday 16th) over Texas-Arlington (UTA) 88-85. This was the Mavericks first league loss and snapped it's 8 game win streak. UTA had won 12 of its past 13 before that loss. UTA is currently in 3rd place in the Sun Belt Conference. This was indeed a quality win and perhaps changed the course of South Alabama's season.
In their previous 3 outings, the Jaguars had converted only 20.8%. Their 11 triples tied a season high. The team's free-throw shooting also improved drastically. After entering the UTA game with the worst free-throw percentage in the Sun Belt Conference, the Jaguars shot a season-best 78.1% (25-32), including 85.2% in regulation.
What sparked this sudden improvement? Head coach Matthew Graves credited a 2.5 hour meeting with coaches and players. "I'm really proud and thankful that our guys responded very well. We didn't practice yesterday (Friday 15th). Instead , we sat in the locker room, met, and talked for almost two and a half hours. We aired out some good, bad, ugly, and our guys really responded. I think we had some issues with accountability, both from the coaches and players, and it was a wonderful thing to see." I sincerely think this players-coaches meeting was instrumental. I expect to see a much more focused Jaguars squad from now on as the season progresses.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE HAS KEY INJURY
The Ragin' Canuns could be without star guard KASEY SHEPHERD throughout their upcoming home-stand. Shepherd ruptured a tendon on one finger of his shooting hand in last Saturday's runaway 87-54 road win over defending Sun Belt Conference champion Georgia State.
A Monday doctor's diagnosis confirmed the extent of the injury. "He dove on the floor in front of our bench for a loose ball and hurt his finger," Cajuns coach Bob Martin said of the late-game incident in Atlanta. "It was bent, and he couldn't straighten it out."
This is a KEY injury. Shepherd is the Cajuns' 2nd leading scorer and ranks 20th in the Sun Belt entering this week at 11.4 points per game. He also leads the team with 27 steals.
Coach Marlin assures everyone that Shepherd will play. But how effective will he be with a ruptured tendon in his shooting hand? "He's going to be able to play," he said. "We've got that. I just don't know how effective he'll be shooting the ball. He had been shooting well with confidence before this injury, and we need him to score. When he plays well, we play well."
I just don't believe Shepherd will be very effective at all. One bad jam of his injured finger will mean he's out for a longer period of time. I believe the coaches will play him sparingly in this game, and that will subtract quite a bit of firepower from the Cajuns' offense IMO.
ATS Trends
South Alabama Jaguars are:
10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with losing records
4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games
6-1 ATS in their last 7 games between these two teams
Louisiana-Lafayette are:
2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win
2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games following 3 or more consecutive road games
1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games
Technical trends aside, we should be cognizant that South Alabama always plays Louisiana-Lafeyette hard.
Look at the head to head history from a SU and ATS perspective.
I'm not saying South Alabama will win (that would be a monster ML, huh?), but I really believe they can hang within 17 points.
Given the fact that Rajun Cajun star starting guard Kasey Shepherd won't be able to contribute significantly 1 game removed from his injury,
and Southern Alabama has started to "right the ship," I think the Jaguars can cover the +17.
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
