Follow or fade me on this play at your own peril. @)
I believe the William & Mary Tribe will cover ATS and beat Hofstra SU at the Pride's home court (Mack Sport Complex or "The Mack") in Hempstead, New York this Sunday 24th afternoon at 12PM EST. This game was originally scheduled for yesterday. Saturday 23rd, but it was postponed due to severe weather and rescheduled for today.
William & Mary and Hofstra are members of the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA). They are currently tied for 2nd place in the conference standings with identical 5-2 records. Overall, William & Mary is 13-5, while Hofstra is 13-6.
The Tribe won their last game at home last Thursday 21st walloping the Elon Phoenix by the score of 89-67. On the season, the Tribe have been led by OMAR PREWITT (16.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.7 APG), DANIEL DIXON (14.5 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.9 APG), and TERRY TARPEY (10.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.6 SPG). Offensively, William & Mary is averaging 76.6 ppg on 48.8% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from beyond the arc. The Tribe is averaging 7.8 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.44. Defensively, William & Mary is holding their opponents to an average of 68.6 ppg on 40.7% shooting. The Tribe average 5.4 blocks per game and have a rebound margin of 2.9.
The Pride won their last game on the road last Thursday 21st in triple OT over the Northeastern Huskies by a score of 96-92. On the season, the Pride has been led by JUAN’YA GRENN (17.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 6.9 APG, 1.7 SPG), AMEEN TANKSLEY (15.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.5 APG), and ROKAS GUSTYS (12.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG). Offensively, Hofstra is averaging 80.8 ppg on 44.1% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from beyond the arc. The Pride average 8.8 three-pointers per game and have an assist/turnover ratio of 1.27. Defensively, Hofstra is allowing their opponents to average 75.5 ppg on 44.2% shooting from the field. The Pride average 6.6 steals per game and have a rebound margin of 1.27.
According to the most current up to date (Saturday 23rd) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, William & Mary is ranked #78 and Hofstra is #94.
William & Mary's offense is ranked #37, while their defense is ranked #157.
Hofstra's offense is ranked #40, while their defense is ranked #184.
BURCHFIELD COMES OUT OF NOWHERE FOR WILLIAM & MARY
In Thursday's win over Elon, 6-4 guard CONNOR BURCHFIELD came out of nowhere to pour in a career-high 20 points in 16 minutes off the bench. Burchfield was averaging around 5 points per game before that. He made 7 of 8 from the field and 6 of 7 from beyond the arc against Elon. Guard Daniel Dixon added 18 points and 6 assists for the Tribe, who shot 55.4% from the field and 50% (14 of 28) from beyond the arc. They held Elon to just 42.4% from the field and out-rebounded the Phoenix, 37-26.
HOFSTRA PLAYING LOTS OF OVERTIME MINUTES LATELY
The Pride lost at James Madison in OT on 16 January. Less than a week later, this past Thursday 21st, Hofstra traveled to Boston to play Northeastern. They controlled the game the entire way, before falling apart in regulation. However, they came alive in 3X OT, although 4 starters played OVER 50 minutes each. Guard JUAN'YA GREEN (23 points, 14 assists) center ROKAS GUSTYS (23 points, 20 rebounds) both had exceptional games.
KEY THOUGHT: In the 3X OT game only a few days ago, the Pride had just 5 points off the bench and only played 7 players. The 4 starters played OVER 50 minutes each! This lack of depth could really hamper them in THIS game as well as late in the season IMO!
ATS Trends
William & Mary Tribe are:
8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games
10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a dog of 0.5 to 6.5 points
18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as a dog
12-3 ATS in all their games overall YTD
6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Hofstra Pride are:
1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games
0-4 ATS in their last 4 Sunday games
Head to head history between these two teams:
William & Mary has covered 6 out of the last 10.
William & Mary have covered the last 3 in this series ATS
William & Mary have won the last 4 in this series SU.
The dog has covered ATS in 7 of the last 10 head to head meetings between these two schools. 70%!
CONCLUSION
Both William & Mary and Hofstra play zone defense, but at some point in this game, that 3X OT game of Thursday 21st will haunt the Pride.
The extra day won't matter when you play 4 starters 50 minutes and have no bench. The fact of the matter is the Tribe
has a bench and better defensive squad led by Tarpey.
I see this as a very tight game throughout with multiple lead changes. Hofstra may even have a small lead at the end of the 1st 1/2. However,
I suspect halfway through the 2nd 1/2, the Pride's starters will start losing gas from the aforementioned exhaustion due to play 50 minutes in
their last game. At this point, the Tribe will make their move for the ATS cover and SU win.
I see an ATS cover and SU victory by the Tribe by 4 to 6 points.
Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
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