Follow or fade at your own peril. @)
I believe SMU will beat Tulane in New Orleans at the Green Wave's home court (Avron B. Fogelman Arena in Devlin Fieldhouse) by 20+ points.
The Mustangs beat the Green Wave 66-52 in a pedestrian manner in 2015, but this 2015-16 edition of the SMU is truly something special. They're currently ranked #8
in the Associated Press (AP) Top 25 poll, sitting at a perfect 16-0 record. Tulane's record is 8-10.
SMU is currently in first place in the American Athletic Conference (AAC) with a perfect 5-0 conference record with quality wins against fellow member teams like Tulsa and Cincinnati. Tulane is currently 8th in the AAC with a 1-4 conference record.
According to the most current up to date (Saturday 17th) KENPOM 2016 overall ratings, SMU is ranked #12 and Tulane is #189.
SMU's offense is ranked #4, while their defense is ranked #72.
Tulane's offense is ranked #244, while their defense is ranked #138.
I see SMU lighting up the scoreboard, and Tulane will be in a deep hole the entire time.
The first half may be tighter than expected, but I anticipate SMU will pull away for a comfortable win 20+ point win and ATS cover in the 2nd half.
Food for thought is Tulane's record versus ranked opponents. The Green Wave hold a 11-48 SU record since 1989 opponents ranked
in the AP Rankings. Most recently, Tulane fell to then Number 11 North Carolina, 96-72.
ATS Trends
SMU Mustangs are:
4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games following a SU win of more than 20 points
7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games
7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
Tulane Green Wave are:
2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win
2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win
3-19 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600
2-5 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games
The favorite has covered ATS in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two schools.
Tulane will likely have a rocking arena when SMU comes to town, but that won't have any effect on this loaded SMU team.
Why? SMU is banned from post-season play, but Coach Larry Brown has this Mustangs team believing that every game they
play is for their championship. Coach Brown is a master motivator, and he'll have his team ready for this game.
I predict a minimum 20 point victory, so there's value in this play IMO.
!/Good luck to anyone who tails me on this play.
