Inactive list, Fleming and a key edge on rushing props: Please read, comment etc....

chonce · Jan 29, 2015

I am writing this to urge prop betters to keep a close eye on the inactive list for the following reason:

Those of us who watch the Patriots play every week know that when the Pats go run-heavy -- as they did with Indy -- they activate Cameron Fleming to serve as an extra lineman on heavy sets. The thing is: if they don't plan on using that set, his roster spot goes to someone else (maybe an extra WR like Brian Tyms, or a special teamer like Chris White).

So before placing prop bets on several key rushing props, look at the inactive list.

If Fleming is active (I suspect he will, but only the Pats know for sure)

Blount Over 14.5 carries
Blount OVER rushing yards (forget the number off the top of head)

Edelman OVER .5 carries (they almost always run a reverse once defense starts biting toward the Fleming side of the line -- 11/16 games this year Edelman has a carry, and it is often out of this heavy set.)

Hooman -- over 6.5 yards receiving -- hooman will get a lot of snaps if they run heavy formation a lot.

Also, know that having these extra lineman was a key part of Belichick's inielgible, eligible stuff -- So I do suspect Fleming will be active.

But, if Fleming is inactive...

I would bet the UNDER on those Blount/Edelman rushing/carries stuff.
Plus, I will strongly consider betting :
OVER for Vereen carries
OVER Vereen yards
Over Vereen catches

as without the heavy set, he will get twice as many snaps, and thus, likely more yards, carries and catches.

I really think this provides an edge to close observers of the Pats -- and hopefully one the books are not too keen on -- that is the beauty of props (and hence the harsh maximum bet restrictions.

Pat's fans -- am I right here? Am I missing anything?

Michelangelo · Jan 29, 2015

Some real good insight there, chonce.

JBoGod · Jan 29, 2015

Definitely think they will favor the run game in this one therefore making him active. Great info

3pointdog · Jan 29, 2015

Thanks brother. Who would have thought about those plays. Nice

chonce · Jan 30, 2015

More on Fleming Factor w/ film

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2014/11/the_fleming_formation_new_engl.html

http://www.indystar.com/story/colts...iots-extra-blockers-cameron-fleming/19200921/

theGRIND · Jan 30, 2015

Love insight like this. I did some digging for YTD stats with and without Fleming and the Pats rush attempts

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	19	20
Ridley	8	25	19	5	27	10
Vareen	7	6	7	8	9	5	11	5	11	1	8	3	1	6	6	2	1	1
Blount											12	10	20	8		10	3	30
Gray							3	17	12	37		1	2	11	6			4
Edelman	2	1	1			1	1			2			1	1				1
Bolden	2	4	2		1	6						3			5	5	3
Brady	1	1	3		4	4		2	2	1		1	4	3	7	2	6	3
White				3				6
Garoppolo					3			1		2						4
Lafell																2
Amendola																		1
Develin					2	1
Wright								1
TOTAL	20	37	32	16	46	27	15	32	25	43	20	18	28	29	24	25	13	40

The weeks highlighted in red are when Fleming saw action per the Pats website.

They only really had a bellcow back 4/8 games he played in. However you should consider their week 4 whooping brought on by KC and week 16/17 coasting. I don't remember correctly but I think they had it locked up by week 16? Someone correct me.

Might be with you on the Edelman prop. Again, outside of weeks 4, 16, 17, looks like he's received a carry when Fleming is game. Not sure of the exact situation and lineup when they actually ran it, but take this info for what it's worth.

I wouldn't touch the Hooman prop, like only 3 catches through regular season? No thanks.

Looking at the Pats RB usage, looks like Blount is their new favorite toy regardless of Fleming.

Keep em coming Chonce, good stuff.