Im down to my very last future, any advice?

[SportSavant]

been a shitty year, for futures, all of mine are cooked right now and im down a fair chunk of change.

Got one left, and its a good one....

$150 to win $7500 on the Hawks.


Anyway, im probably already down in the area of 2K on these futures, maybe more, So im wondering if anyone has any suggestions on how I should play this out.

I would like to get at least 2k or 3k out of this, but I realize I might have to take a few chances to get there.

 

[ivan722]

At least it's not on the Canes.

 

[X-Files]

I would like to get at least 2k or 3k out of this, but I realize I might have to take a few chances to get there.

How about 3000 on the Wings, 1500 on the Pens, & 1200
on the Canes to win the cup?

3000 X 1.5 = 4500
1500 X 3.5 = 5250
1000 X 5.5 = 5500

If Wings win you are up 2000 less 150.
If Pens win you are up 1250 less 150.
If Canes win you are up 1000 less 150.
If Hawks win you are up 2000.

If the Wings or Hawks win the cup you get the 2000 that
you wanted out of this.

 

[VegasVic]

Tough call Savant. I have a hard time seeing Chicago making it to the cup finals. If I was in your shoes I'd sit on it and see if Chicago could steal one of the first two games. If and when they do I'd buy the adjusted series price for enough to recoup much of your loses to this point.

Or.....let it ride and see if they can't get past Detroit leaving a perfect hedge for the finals.

GL in whatever you do.

 

[SportSavant]

I think you are right, it seems like destiny that the wings and Pens will face off for the cup again....

im sure cam ward will have something to say about that, not sure if chicago will however.

 

[Betfair.com]

Greening up your book on betfair

Hey SS:

Really easy to work this out on Betfair. Even though you can bet the traditional way on betfair, you can also bet against an outcome. In fact, tons of folks make a living out of "trading" positions on betfair. Taking a value bet early and trading to guarantee a profit is called "greening up your book".

So check it out:

1. Go to options and tick "show P&L"
2. I stuck in 50 x $150 in for Chicago = $7350.

View attachment 7212

3. Now you need to "place an order on the sytem". So put up $1293 at 5.8. You will take the $138 that is there and you will then need to wait for others to take up the rest of your money. In this case you hedge your bet with every dollar people match you with.

View attachment 7213

4. There you go you have successfully guaranteed a profit no matter who wins.

Here is an example of someone from PEI who does this in-running. (all betfair markets are in-running so you can trade all game until youve guaranteed yourself a profit)

www.thebettingadvantage.com


Let me know if you have any questions...

Good Luck,

rob