I'm a huge Seahawks fan but:

[sunshine11]

I read since 2006 the road team in the playoffs that won but failed to cover ATS at home are 10-2 ATS the following week!

This means GB +7.5 is the play here! Good luck.

 

[justanobserver]

Here is the specifics of that scenario:

week >= 18 and A and p:W and p:ATSL and p:H and season >= 2006
SU: 6-6-0 (3.08, 50.0%) Teaser Records
ATS: 10-2-0 (6.50, 83.3%) avg line: 3.4 +6: 10-1-1 (90.9%) -6: 6-6-0 (50.0%) +10: 11-1-0 (91.7%) -10: 4-8-0 (33.3%)
O/U: 5-7-0 (-1.54, 41.7%) avg total: 46.8 +6: 2-10-0 (16.7%) -6: 7-5-0 (58.3%) +10: 1-10-1 (9.1%) -10: 12-0-0 (100.0%)
Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team 28.2 118.9 31.5 20.2 216.3 1.3 2.0 9.3 7.6 5.2 24.2
Opp 27.7 116.5 35.5 21.0 236.2 2.0 5.3 6.3 4.8 4.4 21.1
Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
Jan 13, 2007 view Saturday 19 2006 Eagles Saints away 0-3 14-10 7-14 3-0 24-27 5.5 48.0 -3 2.5 3.0 2.8 0.2 L W O 0
Jan 14, 2007 view Sunday 19 2006 Seahawks Bears away 0-7 14-14 10-0 0-3 24-27 8.5 37.0 -3 5.5 14.0 9.8 4.2 L W O 1
Jan 21, 2007 view Sunday 20 2006 Saints Bears away 0-3 7-13 7-2 0-21 14-39 3.0 43.0 -25 -22.0 10.0 -6.0 16.0 L L O 0
Jan 03, 2009 view Saturday 18 2008 Falcons Cardinals away 0-7 17-7 0-14 7-2 24-30 0.0 51.0 -6 -6.0 3.0 -1.5 4.5 L L O 0
Feb 07, 2010 view Sunday 22 2009 Saints Colts away 0-10 6-0 10-7 15-0 31-17 5.5 55.5 14 19.5 -7.5 6.0 -13.5 W W U 0
Jan 09, 2011 view Sunday 18 2010 Ravens Chiefs away 3-7 7-0 13-0 7-0 30-7 -3.0 40.5 23 20.0 -3.5 8.2 -11.8 W W U 0
Jan 09, 2011 view Sunday 18 2010 Packers Eagles away 7-0 7-3 7-7 0-6 21-16 2.5 46.0 5 7.5 -9.0 -0.8 -8.2 W W U 0
Jan 22, 2012 view Sunday 20 2011 Ravens Patriots away 0-3 10-10 10-3 0-7 20-23 7.0 50.5 -3 4.0 -7.5 -1.8 -5.8 L W U 0
Jan 06, 2013 view Sunday 18 2012 Seahawks Redskins away 0-14 13-0 0-0 11-0 24-14 -3.0 46.0 10 7 -8 -0.5 -7.5 W W U 0
Jan 05, 2014 view Sunday 18 2013 Chargers Bengals away 7-0 0-10 10-0 10-0 27-10 6.5 46.0 17 23.5 -9.0 7.2 -16.2 W W U 0
Jan 03, 2015 view Saturday 18 2014 Ravens Steelers away 0-3 10-6 10-0 10-8 30-17 3.0 46.0 13 16.0 1 8.5 -7.5 W W O 0
Jan 11, 2015 view Sunday 19 2014 Cowboys Packers away 7-7 7-3 7-10 0-6 21-26 5.5 52.0 -5 0.5 -5 -2.2 -2.8 L W U 0
Jan 18, 2015 view Sunday 20 2014 Packers Seahawks away 7.5 46.5

 

[fly73]

yea but u got an injured QB sunshine and not much mobility there,, just sayin,,,, bol

 

[JohnBlue123]

I think this will be a close game.

 

[crazykind]

this seems like a trend ripe for a return to the mean, but 7.5 is a lot of points in a game of this magnitude

 

[sunshine11]

27-24 Hawks my crystal ball says.

 

[justanobserver]

this seems like a trend ripe for a return to the mean, but 7.5 is a lot of points in a game of this magnitude

Here is what it looks like going further back:
week >= 18 and A and p:W and p:ATSL and p:H
SU: 10-12-0 (-0.36, 45.5%) Teaser Records
ATS: 16-6-0 (1.50, 72.7%) avg line: 1.9 +6: 16-5-1 (76.2%) -6: 9-12-1 (42.9%) +10: 18-4-0 (81.8%) -10: 5-17-0 (22.7%)
O/U: 10-11-1 (0.86, 47.6%) avg total: 44.7 +6: 5-17-0 (22.7%) -6: 16-6-0 (72.7%) +10: 4-17-1 (19.0%) -10: 21-1-0 (95.5%)

So prior to 2006 it looks to be 6-4 ATS and 4-6 SU so it could be that you are right. But 16-6 going that far back is still pretty good.

 

[coitus_maximus]

I believe the oddsmakers know this, and most people are thinking it will be close. My model says a 10 pt victory by Seattle taking into account injuries to Rogers and Lacy. I do understand that Simon will be targeted most of the time, but Dallas' secondary kept Rogers off the board for most of the 1st hlf. I see a better pass rush, better 2ndry and a better linebacking corp in Seattle. Also weather is supposed to be wet and windy. This will also be in Seattle's favor. IMHO, the books are wanting GB money since many think these teams at this level are elite and should be close. Why is Vegas giving you the hooK?

 

[sunshine11]

Line is -8 now. Begging for GB cash.

 

[chonce]

Not surprised by line movement. Does not take much to push a line from 7.5 - 9.
oa
t

 

[Bl0wnAway]

I think GB has the advantage in running between the tackles. They should really try to pound Lacy to set up the big play action bomb to Nelson...I'd take the points too. This is probably going to be close if Aaron Rodgers doesn't hold onto the ball forever and fumble over and over again.

 

[MackDonald]

Unless Rodgers is completely in the sick-bay and Lacy is all feathered-up, this game has to be close.....Green Bay will score.
I expect the unknown (turn-overs, key penalties, and in-game injuries to both teams) will be the deciding factor.

 

[RussellPeters]

Unless Rodgers is completely in the sick-bay and Lacy is all feathered-up, this game has to be close.....Green Bay will score.
I expect the unknown (turn-overs, key penalties, and in-game injuries to both teams) will be the deciding factor.

Key penalties, the biggest unknown...who knows what these zebras will call or not call, hope they don't ruin this game, they have already done it once with the hail mary a couple of years ago

 

[RUSS]

:howdy:Loser!@#0 don't do it Seahawks rout them by21

 

[sunshine11]

Oh no. The russ jinx.

 

[MackDonald]

Oh no. The russ jinx.

The "Ol Russ Jinx".......damn

 

[success1]

now 8.5

 

[sunshine11]

This trend looking good but early. My Hawks need to wake up!

 

[RussellPeters]

:howdy:Loser!@#0 don't do it Seahawks rout them by21

This is a good sign for Packer backers!

 

[sunshine11]

Gave out a free easy winner. Your welcome.