Illinois Voters favor Dems.

[wilheim]

Bush losing favor among Illinois voters
Kerry, Edwards would beat him


By Rick Pearson
Tribune political reporter

February 22, 2004

Illinois voters have grown so disenchanted with President Bush that he would lose the state to either of the top two contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination if the election were held today, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

For the first time in his presidency, there are more Illinois voters of all political stripes who disapprove than approve of the job Bush is doing, and more than half don't want to see him elected to a second term, according to the poll.

The survey not only found widespread voter dissatisfaction with the president over the economy and jobs, but more than four in 10 Illinois voters said they believed the Bush administration purposely misled the public about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq as he led the nation to war.

While voters preferred either Sens. John Kerry or John Edwards to Bush, the polling also found that Democrats in the state were overwhelmingly rallying around Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat, as their choice to take on the president in November.

The results are based on twin surveys conducted by Market Shares Corp. of Mt. Prospect, each with an error margin of 4 percentage points. One survey, conducted Feb. 11-14, measured attitudes among a sample of 600 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the November general election. Another poll, conducted Feb. 11-17, sampled opinions of 609 voters who said they were likely to take part in the March 16 Democratic primary.

The general-election survey was conducted prior to Kerry's latest win on Tuesday in the Wisconsin primary, giving him victories in 15 out of 17 Democratic primary and caucus states. Even so, the poll showed him holding a huge lead over Bush among general-election voters in a potential fall matchup.

If the election were held today, Kerry would be backed by 52 percent of the state's voters while Bush would get 38 percent, the poll showed. Another 10 percent were undecided and 1 percent opted for another candidate.

That 14 percentage-point advantage for Kerry compares to the 2000 election result in Illinois in which then-Vice President Al Gore received 55 percent of the vote, compared with 43 percent for Bush.

Partisan split

The survey results among general-election voters show them to be polarized heavily along partisan lines.

With 92 percent of voters who called themselves Democrats backing Kerry and 86 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans supporting Bush, there appears little opportunity for either side to pick off c****over votes.

In addition, independents are almost evenly split between the two men.

The survey found Bush trailing heavily in the Democratic enclaves of Chicago and suburban Cook County and leading only slightly in the traditionally Republican-leaning collar counties.

Downstate voters were almost equally divided.

The poll also showed signs of a gender-gap problem for Bush. Male voters were divided between Kerry and Bush, but Kerry held a 24-percentage-point advantage among women. White suburban women, the so-called "soccer mom" demographic, favor Kerry over Bush only slightly, 44 percent to 40 percent.

Though Kerry is regarded as the national frontrunner headed into what could be the decisive March 2 "Super Tuesday" round of 10 state caucuses and primaries, he still faces opposition from Edwards, who represents North Carolina in the Senate.

Edwards had a surprisingly close second-place finish in Wisconsin, but the survey taken before that balloting would not reflect any bounce he may have gained from it in Illinois. Still, the poll found that 45 percent of Illinois general-election voters would back Edwards in a hypothetical matchup with Bush, who was the choice of just 40 percent.

The poll shows several troubling indicators that could reduce any chance Bush has of winning the state's 21 electoral votes in the fall. Bush's political advisers have had hopes that Illinois could move into the Republican column in the general election.

Though the general election is months away, voters retain a generally gloomy mood about the economic recovery because it has not translated into new jobs.

And, following increased questions about the accuracy of prewar intelligence claiming Iraq had stockpiled weapons of mass destruction, voters have grown suspicious about why Bush ordered the invasion.

The poll of general-election voters showed Bush receiving his lowest job-approval marks from Illinoisans since he entered the White House in January 2001.

A total of 48 percent disapprove of the job he is doing as president, while 43 percent expressed approval. Those numbers are a reversal from a similar Tribune/WGN-TV survey conducted a month ago, shortly after the capture of Saddam Hussein.

Additionally, 53 percent of Illinois voters now say they don't want to see Bush re-elected, while only 38 percent want a second term for Bush.

Those numbers roughly mirror the lead Kerry has over the Republican president in the poll.

Surveys conducted for the Tribune since August 2002 have shown increasing voter disenchantment with Bush's economic stewardship.

Now, 56 percent of general-election voters disapprove of how he has managed the economy, compared with 35 percent who approve.

Unemployment woes

That disapproval grows even greater when voters are asked about Bush's handling of the nation's employment situation. Fully 61 percent of voters say they disapprove of how the administration is attempting to manage the job situation, compared with only 29 percent who approve.

The disapproval rating is up 7 percentage points from a month ago.

While U.S. involvement in Iraq ranked third on a list of concerns among general-election voters, one finding in the poll could prove especially troublesome for Bush--the image he has sought to craft as a trustworthy leader.

The poll found 44 percent of general-election voters said they believed the Bush administration "purposely misled the public by overstating the risk of Iraq" having nuclear, biological and chemical weapons--almost as much as the 47 percent who believed there was no deliberate deception.

Voters were sharply divided on where to pin blame if no weapons of mass destruction are found in Iraq.

By a narrow plurality, 43 percent would blame the Bush administration and 39 percent would blame the intelligence community. Another 18 percent were undecided.

But 65 percent of voters believe an administration-appointed bipartisan commission to examine U.S. intelligence gathering should report its findings before Election Day on Nov. 2.

Only 20 percent support the notion of allowing the commission to issue its findings next year, the currently scheduled release date.

Last month's Tribune poll found Illinois voters split over Bush's handling of Iraq--47 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

But the new poll found exactly half of Illinois general-election voters disapproving of the administration's handling of Iraq while only 40 percent showed approval.

Primary outlook

Though the Democratic presidential race may be all but wrapped up by the time it reaches Illinois next month, the poll of likely primary voters found them rapidly coalescing around Kerry.

Kerry received the backing of 64 percent of Democratic primary voters, compared with 11 percent for Edwards, 6 percent for activist Al Sharpton and 1 percent for Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich. Another 17 percent were undecided.

Only a month ago, when former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was viewed as the national frontrunner, Illinois' Democratic primary voters were not optimistic about their presidential contenders or their chances of beating Bush.

But with Dean now out of the race--though still on the ballot--and Kerry racking up a string of primary and caucus victories, Democratic voters have become more optimistic about their party's chances in November.

Now, 68 percent of Illinois Democratic primary voters say they believe their field is "very strong," compared with only 39 percent a month ago. And, 71 percent of likely primary voters said they believe Kerry has at least a good chance of defeating Bush in the fall. A month ago, only 41 percent rated Dean's chances against Bush as good to excellent.

The poll also shows that a majority of Democratic primary voters now say that it is more important to side with a candidate who can defeat Bush in the fall rather than side with a candidate they agree with on the issues.

- - -

TRIBUNE/WGN-TV POLL

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

JAN. 2004

Approve: 49%

Disapprove: 42%

No opinion: 8%

Source: Market Shares Corp. poll of 700 Illinois registered voters conducted Jan. 6-9.

Margin of error is +/-4 percentage points.

FEB. 2004

Approve: 43%

Disapprove: 48%

No opinion: 9%

Source: Market Shares Corp. poll of 600 Illinois registered voters conducted Feb. 11-14.

Margin of error is +/-4 percentage points.

Note: Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

Chicago Tribune

- - -

Many voters disapprove of Bush

More voters said they would vote for Democrats John Kerry or John Edwards than George Bush in November, according to a Tribune/WGN-TV poll. Many disaprove of the way Bush has handled the situation in Iraq, the economy and jobs.

PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

Q: If the presidential candidates were Democrat John Kerry and Republican George Bush, for whom would you vote?

Kerry: 52%

Bush: 38%

Undecided: 10%

Other/won't vote: 1%

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

Q: Weapons of mass destruction have not been found in Iraq and now many believe Iraq had none. Who do you think should take responsibility for this?

Bush administration: 43%

Intelligence community: 39%

Don't know: 18%

Q: Do you think the Bush administration purposely misled the public by overstating the risk of Iraq having these weapons?

Purposely misled the public: 44%

Did not purposely mislead the public: 47%

Don't know: 9%

Q: If the presidential candidates were Democrat John Edwards and Republican George Bush, for whom would you vote?

Edwards: 45%

Bush: 40%

Undecided: 12%

Other/won't vote: 4%

IRAQ

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of how George Bush is handling the situation in Iraq?

Approve: 40%

Disapprove: 50%

No opinion: 9%

THE U.S. ECONOMY

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of how George Bush is handling the economy?

Approve: 35%

Disapprove: 56%

No opinion: 9%

FEDERAL DEFICIT

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of how George Bush is handling the federal budget and budget deficits?

Approve: 23%

Disapprove: 64%

No opinion: 14%

Note: Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

Source: Market Shares Corp. poll of 600 Illinois registered voters conducted Feb. 11-14. Margin of error is +/-4 percentage points.

 

[Oceans11]

 

[Oceans11]

 

[lander]

Wil,
I hate to say it, but Georgie and his $200,000,000 in bribery money (not to single out Georgie, all these fuks are taking bribes) will buy alot of votes

 

[jointpleasures]

Wil,

Next time can you post that poll data in chart form. I just love them there depth finder charts! I can always find that big walleye using the depth finders. Where funksoulbro's, I miss them fish finding charts he posts.

 

[FloydGondolli]

Wilheim,

Do the Illinois results surprise you??

Gore won Illinois by 54 to 42 in 2000.

In fact, accoriding to Zogby Inc., one of the most respected polling companies there is, Bush leads all of the so-called Red States (the states he won in 2000) and Kerry leads in all of the Blue States (the states Gore won in 2000).

See the article below.

 

[FloydGondolli]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=808

Released: February 18, 2004
Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States Voters Hardened on the Economy, War, Gays Marriage

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O’Leary Report and Southern Methodist University’s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the “blue states” – or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the “red states,” or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O’Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush’s job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president’s job performance was only fair or poor. Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president’s performance and good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President’s job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin [see attachment for detailed breakdown of results].

A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush’s judicial nominees. This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

While the issue of gay marriages dominates the news in San Francisco and Boston, a majority of Americans remain opposed to the idea. Fifty-two percent of Red State voters and 50% of Blue State voters support such a constitutional amendment while 43% of Red State voters and 44% of Blue State voters disagree. Voters gave Bush a decided edge when asked who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran. Bush was the clear choice among Red State voters (53%) and Blue State votes (47%). Only 31% of Red State voters and 35% of Blue State voters felt Kerry would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders.

Pollster John Zogby will be presenting these poll results at a meeting of the Wednesday Morning Club at the Beverly Hills Hotel at 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday, February 18, 2004. There will be a press availability at 1:45 p.m. for Los Angeles press.

ZOGBY/O’LEARY REPORT/JOHN TOWER CENTER SURVEY RESULTS

Q. “Thinking ahead to when you cast your vote for president in November, which of the following two statements should be a bigger priority: A strong economy marked by sustained growth, low unemployment and a bull stock market or the creation of good-paying jobs in numbers sufficient to erase or surpass the number of jobs lost since 2001.”

Fifty-seven percent of voters who have a 401-K retirement plan or investment in the stock market feel a strong economy is a higher priority than job creation compared to 33% who felt job creation was a higher priority. A strong economy was a bigger priority even among non-investors. By a 46% to 43%, non-investors also feel a strong economy was more important than job creation. Current members of the military, by a 54% to 40% margin, and veterans, by a 50% to 40% margin, feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation. Those voters who never attend church feel a strong economy is the bigger priority by a 60% to 32% margin while daily and weekly church-goers also feel the economy is a higher priority by margins of 52% to 41% and 56% to 35% respectively. Fifty-three percent of gun owners think a strong economy is the higher priority compared to 38% who favored job creation. Voters who follow NASCAR, high school sports and little league feel a strong economy is a higher priority by a 47 to 41% margin. Non-NASCAR voters also feel a strong economy is more important by similar margins of 48% to 41%.

Q. “The Constitution provides the president with the power to nominate justices to the federal bench while the U.S. Senate has the power to "advise and consent." In that role, the Senate has always confirmed judicial nominees by a simple majority of votes – a requirement upheld by a Supreme Court ruling. During the Bush presidency, Democrats used, on six occasions, the threat of a filibuster to block confirmation of some of Bush's judicial nominees. The Constitution expressly provides that supermajority voting requirements are to be used for treaties and constitutional amendments. Knowing this, which of the following statements best describes your opinion?”

Fifty-eight percent of union members, 65% of current military members, 58% of veterans and 68% of gun owners all feel that the Democrat’s filibuster of judicial nominees in the U.S. Senate is wrong and that a simple majority should be used for the confirmation process. Only 25% of current military members, 36% of veterans, and 24% of gun owners think the Democrat’s use of the filibuster to block judicial nominees is okay. There is little difference of opinion among church-goers and non-church-goers on this question. Daily church-goers think the use of the filibuster is wrong by a 66% to 25% margin. Weekly church-goers oppose the use of the filibuster by a 58% to 29% margin. Those who never attend church also agree that the Democrat’s filibuster is wrong by a 61% to 34% margin. Investors in the stock market and in 401-K retirement plans and non-investors, by margins of 57% to 33% and 46% to 43% respectively, feel the use of the filibuster to block judicial nominees is wrong. Fifty-nine percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans feel the Democrat’s use of the filibuster to block judicial nominees was wrong compared to 31% who thought the use of such tactics were okay. Non-NASCAR fans also opposed the Democrat’s filibuster by a 53% to 35% margin.

Q. “The state of Massachusetts now allows gays and lesbians to marry and receive marriage benefits. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that this law should be reversed by passing an amendment to the United States Constitution that grants marriage only to unions between a man and a woman?”

Fifty-one percent of voters agreed that a constitutional amendment should be passed that grants marriage only to unions between a man and a woman while 43% of voters disagreed. Daily and weekly church-goers strongly supported a constitutional amendment to grant marriage only to unions between a man and a woman by margins of 65% to 34% and 60% to 33% respectively. Current military members, by a margin of 59% to 36% agreed that a constitutional amendment was necessary as did veterans who feel the same by a margin of 54% to 42%. Sixty-two% of gun owners favor a constitutional amendment while 34% of gun owners disagree. Investors in the stock market and in 401-K retirement plans and non-investors, by margins of 53% to 43% and 51% to 43% respectively, think a constitutional amendment is necessary. Fifty-three percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans agreed that a constitutional amendment is necessary while 45% disagreed. Non-NASCAR fans also agreed that a constitutional amendment is necessary by a 50% to 44% margin.

Q. Who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran? George W. Bush or John Kerry?

Fifty-percent of voters said Bush would do a better job compared to the 33% of voters who felt John Kerry would do a better job. Fifty-eight percent of current military members and 53% of veterans feel that Bush would do a better job while 32% of current military members and 27% of veterans gave the nod to Kerry. Gun owners and investors by overwhelming margins of 63% to 23% and 58% to 28% respectively, feel Bush would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders. Non-investors also thought Bush would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders by a margin of 48% to 35%. Church-goers and non-church-goers alike thought Bush would do a better job. Daily church-goers and weekly church-goers favored Bush by margins of 57% to 22% and 62% to 21% respectively. Non-church goers also favored Bush to deal with rogue nations and leaders by a 42% to 36% margin. Forty-nine percent of NASCAR, high school sports and little league sports fans think Bush would do a better job of dealing with rogue states and leaders and 33% felt that Kerry was the better choice. Forty-eight percent of non-NASCAR fans also thought Bush would be better to deal with rogue states and leaders while 32% favored Kerry.

 

[D2bets]

Floyd, that doesn't much surprise me either. The election will come down whether Kerry can "steal" (for lack of a better pun) a couple of the Red States back. If he picks his veep wisely I think he can.

 

[FloydGondolli]

If Zogby's numbers are accurate, Bush holds solid leads in the Red states while Kerry holds only slight leads in the Blue states. So Kerry seems more likely to lose some of the Blue states than Bush is the Red states.

Also, because of the 2000 census, the Red states are worth 278 Electoral votes now compared to 271 in 2000 (Blue states have dropped from 267 to 260). So this means Kerry will need to win several small Red states or one of the larger ones to make up the difference.

 

[KMAN]

Let's keep in mind also that for the last few months the Democrats have been the only ones campaigning. President Bush has other things to do.....LIKE RUN THE COUNTRY......

If Kerry has a slight lead after having the spotlight to himself just wait until Bush starts campaigning!

The small lead will become a big deficit once Bush exposes Kerry for what he really is.

Kerry has done a great job of trashing the President's agenda but does anyone know what Kerry stands for? What are his ideas for creating more jobs? What about National Defense? What about the economy?

Does he expect that raising taxes is going to fix all of these problems?

 

[Igetp2s]

An instant classic quote:

"The Democratic field, Mr. Bush said, is "for tax cuts and against them. For Nafta and against Nafta. For the Patriot Act and against the Patriot Act. In favor of liberating Iraq and opposed to it. And that's just one senator from Massachusetts."

 

[wilheim]

We all know to take all these polls with a grain of salt. I mean either side could dig up polls that will show support for almost any canidate. The thing I do sense from polls and articles from around the internet is that this election is not a forgone conclusion, in other words we have a horse race. Natrually I don't expect some posters here to agree with me, but that is OK.


wil.

 

[Massmilwaukee]

Bush must have been in front of a teleprompter.

 

[Wynn]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Natrually I don't expect some posters here to agree with me, but that is OK.
wil. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Wil, please don't confuse my disagreement with your prediction with my respect for your right to make it. I still believe that Bush will break away later this year and win by a landslide.

FOUR MORE YEARS!

 

[wilheim]

Kwalder, I do appreciate that, and feel the same way regarding the right to post. As far as this forum goes, I try not to moderate any posts, but today I had to edit 2 posts which imo. were in very poor taste, by poster Slurpee. I am not sure how you feel about any editing, but in this case I believe I did the right thing.


wil.

 

[Wynn]

wil, I believe you did the right thing. A forum on "Politics, Governments and World Events" does not give anyone the right to negligently trample on the feelings of others.