Illinois -14.5 vs. Ohio St.

[TOOTIGHT]

Good to be back in the land of College Football! I just got back from a 2 week trip overseas and have been starved of my favorite past time. Italy and Greece were worth it though.

I did not think this season would be like the old days when I would cash in betting against my Illini but this defense looks like the '02 and '03 units that I would fade for easy wins.

Really thought this line would be higher, Illinois is completely lost on defense. They made Mizzou's freshman QB look like a heisman canidate and then they gave up over 400 yards to freaking Illinois St. the following week. Worse than that, they lost their middle line backer in the process. LB is their thinnest position and now their most important and talented player is out for the season.

I have no idea how they can hang with OSU. The Illini offense couldn't do anything against Mizzou. I expect some improvement this week but still don't see them keeping this game within 3 TD's.

They usually play OSU tough regardless the line so I'm still looking but this should be a play.

Let me know your thoughts boyz...

 

[nd2000]

Illinois covers at Ohio State, just like two years ago when no one gave them a chance in hell...

 

[TOOTIGHT]

That Illini team was completely different on both sides of the ball 2 years ago. They had a good secondary, were very physical, got good pressure on the QB, could stop the run, and had a great leader at MLB. On offense, they had a good O-line and the Big 10 offensive player of the year at RB. That game was also right before the OSU Michigan game and set up perfect for Illinois.

I'm telling you this defense has no pulse and I don't think the coaching staff will have any answers. Not only did they give up over 300 yards through the air to a horrible Illinois St team but it was to ISU's back-up QB!! This is an Illinois St. team that got crushed by Eastern Illinois in week 1, only scoring 6 points and put up 211 yards total offense.

One of the biggest problem with Illinois's defense is depth, the fall-off from starter to back-up is huge and I don't see how they will contain TP with nobody to replaced Martez Wilson MLB.

 

[freshjive]

Martez Wilson is a DE playing MLB. It's actually an addition by subtraction him being hurt.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, but Martez Wilson while highly ranked out of High School has played like an absolute dog for three straight years. Ian Thomas the kid who stepped in for him has looked like a beast and isn't lost on defense like Martez.

Ron Zook is a horrible coach, with a horrible staff around him. But, with that said Illinois is loaded with athletes on offense with guys like:

QB - Juice Williams - dynamic dual threat guy who when hot is as good as anyone, however, when he's bad, he's fucking bad.

WR - Arrelious Benn - first round pick, as dangerous of a playmaker as any in the country.

WR - Jarred Fayson - Florida transfer, Percy Harvin type, big time athlete, big time playmaker. Returns kickoffs

WR - Jeff Cumberland - was demoted recently due to drops, but I am being dead serious when I say there might not be a better athlete in college football. He's 6'5" 240lbs ran a 10.5 100m in HS and can fly.

WR - AJ Jenkins - Another big time track star type receiver who can fly down the field. Shaky hands.

TE - Michael Hoomanawanui - Huge target with great hands. Very good college TE.

RB - Daniel Dufrene - speedy tough little back who broke a long 70+ yarder against Ohio State a few years ago in the upset win.

RB - Jason Ford - big physical back, likely used in redzone.

RB - Mikel LeShoure - might be suspended, but the most talented back on the team.

RB - Justin Green - true freshman 100 meter champion out of Kentucky. Brother played at Ohio State and Justin was committed to Ohio State until very late in the process. I would bet a lot of money on him getting more than a few carries in this one.

As for the OL - they have a decent mixture of veteran and young players. True sophomore at Left Tackle who has shown he is pretty darn athletic and a solid player. Solid OL in general, but they do really struggle to get push on the interior in the run game.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, because I believe there are much better lines to pick from, but if you're backing Ohio State this week, you will be sweating this one out to the end. No matter how big of a lead jumps out to, it won't be safe, because this Illinois offense is liable to drop a shit load of points on any defense in the country.

And Illinois is coming off a bye week.

 

[fballplaya]

Martez Wilson is a DE playing MLB. It's actually an addition by subtraction him being hurt.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, but Martez Wilson while highly ranked out of High School has played like an absolute dog for three straight years. Ian Thomas the kid who stepped in for him has looked like a beast and isn't lost on defense like Martez.

Ron Zook is a horrible coach, with a horrible staff around him. But, with that said Illinois is loaded with athletes on offense with guys like:

QB - Juice Williams - dynamic dual threat guy who when hot is as good as anyone, however, when he's bad, he's fucking bad.

WR - Arrelious Benn - first round pick, as dangerous of a playmaker as any in the country.

WR - Jarred Fayson - Florida transfer, Percy Harvin type, big time athlete, big time playmaker. Returns kickoffs

WR - Jeff Cumberland - was demoted recently due to drops, but I am being dead serious when I say there might not be a better athlete in college football. He's 6'5" 240lbs ran a 10.5 100m in HS and can fly.

WR - AJ Jenkins - Another big time track star type receiver who can fly down the field. Shaky hands.

TE - Michael Hoomanawanui - Huge target with great hands. Very good college TE.

RB - Daniel Dufrene - speedy tough little back who broke a long 70+ yarder against Ohio State a few years ago in the upset win.

RB - Jason Ford - big physical back, likely used in redzone.

RB - Mikel LeShoure - might be suspended, but the most talented back on the team.

RB - Justin Green - true freshman 100 meter champion out of Kentucky. Brother played at Ohio State and Justin was committed to Ohio State until very late in the process. I would bet a lot of money on him getting more than a few carries in this one.

As for the OL - they have a decent mixture of veteran and young players. True sophomore at Left Tackle who has shown he is pretty darn athletic and a solid player. Solid OL in general, but they do really struggle to get push on the interior in the run game.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, because I believe there are much better lines to pick from, but if you're backing Ohio State this week, you will be sweating this one out to the end. No matter how big of a lead jumps out to, it won't be safe, because this Illinois offense is liable to drop a shit load of points on any defense in the country.

And Illinois is coming off a bye week.

If the Illini are so "talented" why do they suck? Because they got rolled by a Mizzou team who is probably the worst Mizzou team they have had in several years...Juice Williams may have talent....but he is way more bad then he is good. He makes horrible decisions, has poor accuracy and has shown nothing to show he is an elite qb. Benn will be a 1st rnd pick, no question. Defensively, they lack an identity and often look clueless....i think the game will be "competitive" come Saturday, but Ohio St covers the line.

Ohio St 38
Illinois 21

Just for the record....Dufrene's long TD run 2 years ago should have been overturned....he clearly (as replay shows) fumbled the ball through the end zone (should've have been a touchback) but for some reason it wasn't reviewed.

 

[freshjive]

If the Illini are so "talented" why do they suck? Because they got rolled by a Mizzou team who is probably the worst Mizzou team they have had in several years...Juice Williams may have talent....but he is way more bad then he is good. He makes horrible decisions, has poor accuracy and has shown nothing to show he is an elite qb. Benn will be a 1st rnd pick, no question. Defensively, they lack an identity and often look clueless....i think the game will be "competitive" come Saturday, but Ohio St covers the line.

Ohio St 38
Illinois 21

Just for the record....Dufrene's long TD run 2 years ago should have been overturned....he clearly (as replay shows) fumbled the ball through the end zone (should've have been a touchback) but for some reason it wasn't reviewed.

I said they were bad, because Ron Zook is a horrible coach, and has a horrible staff around him.

To put it in perspective - Ron Zook has two defensive coordinators.

Maybe Dufrene's 70 yard TD should have been overturned 2 years ago - what does it matter? He still ran right through the defense for a long TD and is a nice back.

Illinois got smashed by Missouri, yes, but they were without two starting RB's and Arrelious Benn went down after the first play.

Illinois is as talented as any team in the country on offense. Illinois has played Ohio State very tough the last few years.

I said I would not bet on this game, that there are much better lines. And if you are seriously denying the talent on Illinois offense than you deserve to get face fucked this weekend.

I don't think anyone would ever deny a Ron Zook team of pure talent. He signs players on NLOID that he has no business signing.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Martez Wilson is a DE playing MLB. It's actually an addition by subtraction him being hurt.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, but Martez Wilson while highly ranked out of High School has played like an absolute dog for three straight years. Ian Thomas the kid who stepped in for him has looked like a beast and isn't lost on defense like Martez.

Ron Zook is a horrible coach, with a horrible staff around him. But, with that said Illinois is loaded with athletes on offense with guys like:

QB - Juice Williams - dynamic dual threat guy who when hot is as good as anyone, however, when he's bad, he's fucking bad.

WR - Arrelious Benn - first round pick, as dangerous of a playmaker as any in the country.

WR - Jarred Fayson - Florida transfer, Percy Harvin type, big time athlete, big time playmaker. Returns kickoffs

WR - Jeff Cumberland - was demoted recently due to drops, but I am being dead serious when I say there might not be a better athlete in college football. He's 6'5" 240lbs ran a 10.5 100m in HS and can fly.

WR - AJ Jenkins - Another big time track star type receiver who can fly down the field. Shaky hands.

TE - Michael Hoomanawanui - Huge target with great hands. Very good college TE.

RB - Daniel Dufrene - speedy tough little back who broke a long 70+ yarder against Ohio State a few years ago in the upset win.

RB - Jason Ford - big physical back, likely used in redzone.

RB - Mikel LeShoure - might be suspended, but the most talented back on the team.

RB - Justin Green - true freshman 100 meter champion out of Kentucky. Brother played at Ohio State and Justin was committed to Ohio State until very late in the process. I would bet a lot of money on him getting more than a few carries in this one.

As for the OL - they have a decent mixture of veteran and young players. True sophomore at Left Tackle who has shown he is pretty darn athletic and a solid player. Solid OL in general, but they do really struggle to get push on the interior in the run game.

I don't have much of an opinion on this game, because I believe there are much better lines to pick from, but if you're backing Ohio State this week, you will be sweating this one out to the end. No matter how big of a lead jumps out to, it won't be safe, because this Illinois offense is liable to drop a shit load of points on any defense in the country.

And Illinois is coming off a bye week.

You don't have to list each player, everyone knows on paper they "should" be a great offense but they aren't playing the Illini defense on game day and that is where the problem lies. This offense has not lived up to expectations and if they can't score on Mizzou how are they going to score on Ohio St?

I know Martez Wilson is playing out of position but that's because the Illini don't have any good LB's and he hasn't played for 3 years, he was just starting his 3rd season this year. You do know he was the leading returning tackler on defense this year right? It doesn't matter if the kid hasn't lived up to the hype, he was their best option for MLB on a thin unit, and worst of all he knows Zooks defense inside and out and calls the plays. He is being replaced with Evan Frierson, who has very little experience not Ian Thomas so your crazy if that is addition by subtraction.

I hope I'm wrong and they just got off to a slow start but I just don't see this team staying within 20 points of OSU.

try reading this website if you want good info. on the Illini http://alioneye.com/

 

[freshjive]

Ian Thomas was playing MLB last game and will likely be there again.

Martez Wilson has been HORRIBLE since he arrived on campus. He takes horrible angles on plays, does not get off blocks, takes off a ton of plays, and gives up on a ton of plays. He is not GOOD. He is a defensive end that is scared of contact so can't play there.

And your point about Martez calling the defense is a joke. He stood around lost on many occasions against Missouri and Ian Thomas was the one pointing him to the right direction.

Wilson is probably the best athlete on the team, but he's a pussy and not a linebacker. He's been all HYPE and is way too raw as a football player right now. That is what happens when you come from a chicago public league football program.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Ian Thomas was playing MLB last game and will likely be there again.

Martez Wilson has been HORRIBLE since he arrived on campus. He takes horrible angles on plays, does not get off blocks, takes off a ton of plays, and gives up on a ton of plays. He is not GOOD. He is a defensive end that is scared of contact so can't play there.

And your point about Martez calling the defense is a joke. He stood around lost on many occasions against Missouri and Ian Thomas was the one pointing him to the right direction.

Wilson is probably the best athlete on the team, but he's a pussy and not a linebacker. He's been all HYPE and is way too raw as a football player right now. That is what happens when you come from a chicago public league football program.

Maybe your missing my point. I agree with you about him not being good. That's why the Illini defense sucks so bad, he's not good yet he was their best option. Despite the fact that he can't get off blocks, lacks instincts, ect... he was the leading returning tackler on the team. The coaches suck at Illinois but they know more about football and the team than you and I. He was starting at MLB because he was the best option on a really bad defense.

Are you really trying to tell me he didn't call the plays for the defense? Yes, he's not good but the MLB calls the plays on the Illini defense and if you don't know that your clueless.

Ian Thomas was at MLB because the Illini were playing a nickel defense 80% of the game. Per Zook, Frierson gets the first crack at it but who knows, I guess we'll find out.

 

[goblue12]

I have no read on this one. LOVED the Illini here earlier, but after the beatdown that Missouri put on them + Juice getting banged up in the Illinois State contest, I can't throw $$$ on the Illini until they prove otherwise.

 

[Illini]

Ohio St wins 41-17.

 

[nd2000]

Like Illinois here. Illinois has Ohio State's number. Last year, the Illinois offense put up 455 yards of offense on Ohio State's defense and the Illini return 8 starters from that team. Illinois obviously laid an egg in week one against Mizzou, but what you guys are missing is that this creates an enormously juicy buy low situation on Illinois. We know thay can play tons better than they showed in that game.

No one else will agree with me which absolutely makes me like this play even more. The preseason line on this game was Ohio State -9. At that number, I'd still consider Illinois. At +14.5, it will be a certain play.

 

[nd2000]

I have no read on this one. LOVED the Illini here earlier, but after the beatdown that Missouri put on them + Juice getting Not banged up in the Illinois State contest, I can't throw $$$ on the Illini until they prove otherwise.

This kind of logic will NEVER EVER make you money in sports betting though. You cannot wait until a team proves otherwise to make a move. You gotta have guts and make a move before it happens. Once it happens and everyone has seen it, including Vegas oddsmakers, you can basically assure that you have lost a bunch of value on the team you want to back.

 

[nd2000]

This kind of logic will NEVER EVER make you money in sports betting though. You cannot wait until a team proves otherwise to make a move. You gotta have guts and make a move before it happens. Once it happens and everyone has seen it, including Vegas oddsmakers, you can basically assure that you have lost a bunch of value on the team you want to back.

A perfect example of this was Florida State last week. Everyone was way down on Florida State after going through the motions against Jacksonville State. Incredibly, FSU closed @ +9 to a team that they would have been basically a pick against if it were the first game of the season. The typical handicapper would say, well they looked like crap last week so i can't bet them this week. Then boom, FSU plays up their ability and covers easily. Now what do you do?? It's too late. Now they are an expensive favorite over a USF team that does have talent. It is 50/50 whether they will cover that game. You absolutely MUST stay ahead of the curve to beat the books.

 

[goblue12]

I guess we just have a disagreement on philosophies. You bet your way, and hopefully you win $$$. I will bet my way and hopefully I can make $$$.

I know this has been successful (8-2 Week 2, 10-5 last week) and will continue to bet on the unbeaten ATS teams against defeated ATS teams until there is enough data to actually cap the sport.

 

[romecloneout]

bucks HUGE

 

[Illini]

Like Illinois here. Illinois has Ohio State's number. Last year, the Illinois offense put up 455 yards of offense on Ohio State's defense and the Illini return 8 starters from that team. Illinois obviously laid an egg in week one against Mizzou, but what you guys are missing is that this creates an enormously juicy buy low situation on Illinois. We know thay can play tons better than they showed in that game.

No one else will agree with me which absolutely makes me like this play even more. The preseason line on this game was Ohio State -9. At that number, I'd still consider Illinois. At +14.5, it will be a certain play.

Juice is terrible. He's not even rated high, but he's still way overrated. He's a deer in headlights trying to read defenses, and he's terribly inaccurate throwing to wide open receivers. Yeah, he threw for 400 yards a couple times last year, but a good quarterback would have thrown for 600 and more td's. He had plenty of 40 yard gains on underthrown balls that should have went for 70 yard TD's. And he gave away 3 games on his own last year. Good kid. Horrible QB.

 

[Illini]

This kind of logic will NEVER EVER make you money in sports betting though. You cannot wait until a team proves otherwise to make a move. You gotta have guts and make a move before it happens. Once it happens and everyone has seen it, including Vegas oddsmakers, you can basically assure that you have lost a bunch of value on the team you want to back.

You have to evaluate what you see on the field and go from there. Taking a contrarian approach will be 100% correct 50% of the time.

Sometimes, the line just can never be set high enough. Wash St last year was a prime example, as was Illinois in 2004 and 2005. You see a bad team, and you fade them until the books finally catch up. Many times, they never catch up.

Now I'm not saying Illinois is that bad of a team. They are going to be somewhat competitive in most of their games, because of their playmakers on offense. But this defense is bad. They gave up 300 yards passing to a freshman backup QB on a mediocre 1AA team. Prior is gonna pick this defense apart, and he's going to run for a lot of yards also.

-14 is too cheap in my opinion. Ohio St or pass.

 

[gynecologist]

I love Ohio St in this one, its one of my favorite plays of the week.. Illini very weak at LB and in their secondary.

Juice Williams is a mistake prone idiot and the team got killed by Missouri. I think most peoples perception has Illinois a lot better than what they really are..

They won't be playing in any bowl game this season, OSU is one of the class of the division.

OSU 39-14

 

[nd2000]

You have to evaluate what you see on the field and go from there. Taking a contrarian approach will be 100% correct 50% of the time.

I don't take a contrarian approach. I buy low and sell high. A lot of picks i make are "public" plays, like LSU this week.