I'll give you the holy grail of gambling 1.1 (But......)

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But 99% of you will not be able to follow it.

No offense to anyone, but it takes patience and more patience. You can't get into the thrill of making big bucks on every play. I can honestly say that since I've used internet accounts, I've never tapped out. I've taken money out at the end of the season. But that was me just getting the cash. Not tapping out.

We had this discussion last year. Very good info. I will actually have people argue that this is not the way to go. Well, I have math on my side. Also I have the proof of not putting any money in my internet accounts by tapping since 1996.

First of all. Lay off the parlays. UNLESS........You are parlaying two big favs. That will make them into an even wager or a dog. I see so many people trying to score the huge hit by parlaying 4 or more teams.

Second. Just because it's a big fav, doesn't mean they are going to win. There are plenty of upsets in hockey.

Third. It kind of goes with the first two. Stay away from the juice. It will just kill ya. You will notice I will play -1 lines quite a bit. This gets the big juice plays down to low or no juice. Also it turns big favs to nice dogs. You can turn that -150 into a +137. That's a huge difference. Yes, you will get some ties. But that's part of the game.

Fourth......Don't chase.........just don't do it. Now I have some friends on other boards. Well, mainly one board that does this. Sometime down the road you are going to get hit. It may be awhile. But one day you will tap out.

Fifth.......Here is really the whole ball of wax here. This is the grail of it all.

Have your bankroll set. I mean your whole bankroll. Just wager a percentage of your bankroll for each game. Here is what I do.

I wager 2.5% of my bankroll on each game. I've actually lowered this again this year. It was 4%, before the lockout. Then, last year it was 3%.

Class...........pay attention.........

Say you start out with......OK.........I will use some real world numbers that most of you probably are using. You start out with $1000. Then you decide to take the Bruins and Canes at Even money.

You would wager $25 on both teams. Say you won both.

Then your bankroll is now $1050. Now your 2.5% wager would be $26.25 instead of $25. You win your wagers go up. That's where the snowball starts. Yeah, you're not going to break the bank at first. But if you keep winning your wagers will go up. That's when you should wager more. But that 99% of people will wager more when they lose. Exactly backwards.

Now how about if those two $25 wagers lose. Well your bankroll is down to $950. So your next wager would be $23.75. Now this is where the real power of this comes in. When you are losing, you dig your heels in and make it tough for the book to tap you out. You start to lose you cut your wagers down. Again, exactly opposite what most people do.

One of the complaints of this is most people say when I get on a winning streak I'm making less money because I'm down a few hundred. I should be winning $25 or $30 a game instead of $20 or so.

Well, if you start winning your wagers will start to creep up. I will bump my percentage up if I'm on a winning streak. Hell, after the Olympic break a couple of years ago, I was up to 6% on my wagers in March and the first week of April

If you hit that streak push it a bit. But make sure your on a streak, not just winning a few games. If you play like this you will never go broke. If it's the action your looking for please stop now. You will be telling a sad story to people. That's the reason 99% of people can't do this. It's the action they need. They don't wager logically.

I know a handful of people in my network that do this. They are very astute. They don't play everyday. The don't force a play. But they do wager by a percentage of their actual bankroll.

Come on and join this handful. You won't be sorry.

Good skill to everyone this year. I will be watching

:toast:
 

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Powerz want me to post this. It's great reading and I will look at it every time I start go get nailed.
 

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Lippsman

I've read this before at your site and have always appreciated it's wisdom. Thanks for posting it here. Best of luck tonight and for the remainder of the season.
 

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Great read thanks for posting. So true about comitting to this style and staying discplined is very hard to do but smart for sure!
 

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thanks lipsman - next time you hear money mangement is the key remember this post.
 

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Say you start out with......OK.........I will use some real world numbers that most of you probably are using. You start out with $1000. Then you decide to take the Bruins and Canes at Even money.

You would wager $25 on both teams. Say you won both.

Then your bankroll is now $1050. Now your 2.5% wager would be $26.25 instead of $25. You win your wagers go up. That's where the snowball starts. Yeah, you're not going to break the bank at first. But if you keep winning your wagers will go up. That's when you should wager more. But that 99% of people will wager more when they lose. Exactly backwards.

Now how about if those two $25 wagers lose. Well your bankroll is down to $950. So your next wager would be $23.75. Now this is where the real power of this comes in. When you are losing, you dig your heels in and make it tough for the book to tap you out. You start to lose you cut your wagers down. Again, exactly opposite what most people do.


Most of this stuff is accurate but I strongly disagree with varying your bets following a win or a loss. This is bad advice. You just can't do it after every game or two. This is basically the Kelly criterion.

If you vary your bet sizes in this fashion, your winning % needed to profit goes up.

Example given: Start with $1,000, bet $25 each on Bruins and Canes, they both lose. You're down to $950.


OK, keep your bets at a flat $25 (2.5% of your original roll), and you obviously only need to win 2 games to get back to even. Continue to use the 2.5% as suggested here instead (which is way too high as well), your bets are now $23.75 each and now you need to win over 2.1 games to break even. If you think needing an extra 0.1 of a win for every two losses is no big deal, you're wrong. It adds up to a HUGE deal. Plus, after you just lost two games, you're more likely to win the next one so why on earth lower your wager?

Most pros won't wager much more than 1-2% of roll on a game and certainly won't adjust bet sizes after every game! Wait till your roll increases by 25% or so.
 

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I agree that you shouldnt adjust after every bet.

Its also too hard when games overlap each other (7pm, 8pm, 10pm)

I would suggest adjusting after 25% win or loss.

When you get to 1250 BR or down to 750 BR.

Just make sure to predetermine when you adjust and stick to it.
 

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You don't actually adjust after every game. Just do everything for a certain percentage at the start of the day.
 

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Most of this stuff is accurate but I strongly disagree with varying your bets following a win or a loss. This is bad advice. You just can't do it after every game or two. This is basically the Kelly criterion.

If you vary your bet sizes in this fashion, your winning % needed to profit goes up.

Example given: Start with $1,000, bet $25 each on Bruins and Canes, they both lose. You're down to $950.


OK, keep your bets at a flat $25 (2.5% of your original roll), and you obviously only need to win 2 games to get back to even. Continue to use the 2.5% as suggested here instead (which is way too high as well), your bets are now $23.75 each and now you need to win over 2.1 games to break even. If you think needing an extra 0.1 of a win for every two losses is no big deal, you're wrong. It adds up to a HUGE deal. Plus, after you just lost two games, you're more likely to win the next one so why on earth lower your wager?

Most pros won't wager much more than 1-2% of roll on a game and certainly won't adjust bet sizes after every game! Wait till your roll increases by 25% or so.

If you lost two games you're more likely to win the next one ?????

What ?????

No, that is very wrong !!!!! Just because you lose two games in a row doesn't make your next wager any stronger. That's why people lose more, if you are on a losing streak you should keep a certain percentage wager instead of increase the value of the next one. And if you keep the same size wager when your bankroll goes down that's exactly what you are doing.

The percentage you use is a personal preference. Right now I still use 2.5% and it works out well for me. But when I go on a losing streak I will lower it to 2 or 1.75.
 

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Unfortunately you grabbed the least significant thing I wrote and ran with it and ignored the important part of not changing your bet %, but I'll explain the law of average part first.

If you KNOW you're a 55% capper in say, football. You've averaged that your whole life. Take 100 marbles, tacks, anything and throw 55 green ones into a bag and also 45 red ones all together. The green marbles represent wins and the red represent losses. So, there are 55% wins in the bag. If you lose the first two games, take out two red marbles....you now have 43 red marbles (losses) left in the bag but still 55 green ones (wins) which means to hit your TRUE percentage, which you have averaged your whole lifetime, your average winning % is now higher for the next game....56.1%. It's just simple law of averages. It's just an expected % on the remaining 98 games, not a guaranteed outcome for the next game though.

Of course you don't know if your going to win or lose the next game. OF COURSE your next wager has nothing to do with the last. Isn't that common sense?


if you are on a losing streak you should keep a certain percentage wager instead of increase the value of the next one. And if you keep the same size wager when your bankroll goes down that's exactly what you are doing.

The percentage you use is a personal preference. Right now I still use 2.5% and it works out well for me. But when I go on a losing streak I will lower it to 2 or 1.75.

You missed the important point to NOT bet an adjusted percentage of your bankroll each day. That is poor advice and I already explained why. Don't keep the same percentage, keep the same dollar amount. You're increasing how many games you need to win just to get back to even using your method. To hell with streaks, streaks happen all the time. Let them happen but keep your original bet amount throughout any streak. After two losses, your bets are only theoretically higher because you have less bankroll left. That's what's messing you up.

Your bankroll only comes into play in the beginning when you're setting your original percentage, then FORGET ABOUT IT until you re-calculate much further down the road. If you calculated it correctly in the first place you shouldn't have to worry about going broke during a losing streak. If you didn't, and then jump your bet amounts around each day, you're making it tougher to dig out of a hole. After a losing streak your wins will be LOWER and after a winning streak your losses will be HIGHER. Bad idea. If you still don't believe me, test it yourself. Calculate your units as 2.5% all the way through and compare. Keep an eye on how many units you'll need to win to get back to even.

Hope I explained it properly. Best wishes.
 

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I have been playing it for over 25 years and it works for me and works for a good deal of people that play it.

To each their own

Best wishes to you also this year
 

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Great stuff...I am pretty much on board with this after reading Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. Helped me out tremendously.

Still, I picked some some good ideas from your post. Great stuff.:toast:
 

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Stanford Wong is a great read. Take a close look at his teaser plays also. They are spot on.
 

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This thread is a classic example of how gamblers see only what they want to see.

Teddie, if you go 55-45 in football season (55%), and you start 0-2, then you went 55-43 the rest of the way which is 56.1%. That's all I'm saying. What aren't you understanding?

I never said I base any wagers off this premise.


Lippman, just because "it works" for you doesn't mean it's the optimal way to bet because I can mathematically prove it isn't and so can you but you aren't even going to try. I like to test everything (and I have) so I know what's up instead of just guessing.

Guessing is very costly.
 

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This thread is a classic example of how gamblers see only what they want to see.

Teddie, if you go 55-45 in football season (55%), and you start 0-2, then you went 55-43 the rest of the way which is 56.1%. That's all I'm saying. What aren't you understanding?

I never said I base any wagers off this premise.


Lippman, just because "it works" for you doesn't mean it's the optimal way to bet because I can mathematically prove it isn't and so can you but you aren't even going to try. I like to test everything (and I have) so I know what's up instead of just guessing.

Guessing is very costly.

Keeping your wagers at the same amount when your bankroll goes down is more costly. If you keep winning the wagers go up and you can snowball your money. I play a defensive style that's why you don't tap. Again if you are rolling you raise your percentage a bit to get your wagers higher.

I posted it, I play it, if you don't like it then don't play it.

GL this year.
 

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I am siding with Lippman in this debate. His plan makes more financial sense.
 

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Nice write up man!

Agree with you Lippsman! Only %1 of betting people can make money on the long run. Money management really matters!

PS: I'm a big fan of 2-game parlays specially if the odds are -200. I never parlay -110 odds and never parlay more than 2 games.
 

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My 2 thoughts for what they are worth. This is a tough debate in which people think that since it makes sense it therefore has to be correct. For one of the few times I have to side with Number Freak. This is a good foundation for a beginner and should not be over looked but as you become more experienced and hopefully learned lessons along the way it is not a 100% regid model one should follow. Yes there are very key points that hopefully a gambler never forgets like dont chase (very important) and whatch the juice (very important). Parlaying 2 high favs i never seen the point in that. If you are willing the risk of a parlay then best make the payout a desent one else don't bother. and getting two big favs right is probably just as hard as getting one over/under correct. Furthermore getting 2 wrong does not mean you will get the next one right but getting two right does not mean you will get the next one right either. You need to know your strenght and weaknesses and play accordingly thats the hard part!! always keep in mind that its a game of chance and the better you know your abilities the more you make
 

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2-game parlays works fine for me. Specially if the odds are -200. You can't pick -200 as single but you can make a nice +225 parlay by combining 2 bets.

Of course, it's not everyone's cup of tea but works fine for me so far.
 

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