If you are betting the Iowa caucus

Banned4Life · Jan 19, 2004

USA Today

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The outcome could swing on surprise factors, such as an unexpected accord between Dennis Kucinich, the anti-war zealot who is lagging badly as the fifth candidate contesting the caucuses, and Edwards, whom Kucinich prefers among the top-tier candidates. Sunday afternoon, the Edwards campaign told its precinct captains in conference calls about the secret arrangement worked out by both candidates. In any precinct where either Kucinich or Edwards fails to get the 15% support necessary to win a delegate, their supporters are urged to align with the other candidate, an arrangement that might add a percentage point or two to Edwards' total.
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As tight as this caucus is that extra point or two could make the difference.

Fishhead · Jan 19, 2004

This is the tightest and greatest IOWA Caucus in history.

Been great for bettig purposes on the WSEX active market futures!!

I have DEAN and KERRY stock personally.

D2bets · Jan 19, 2004

That coule be a small factor. What about the other candidates, like Clark and Lieberman? I'm guessing Clark's would break to Gephardt as a strong showing by him is least likely to harm Clark.

Fishhead · Jan 19, 2004

CLARK not even campaining for the Iowa Caucus.

Not a factor.

D2bets · Jan 19, 2004

Fish, neither is Kucinich, but they are still alternatives and their small factions can choose to go to one or another. Last poll I saw had Kucinich 3% and Clark 2%. Just because Clark hasn't campaigned there doesn't mean he has no supporters there.

Banned4Life · Jan 19, 2004

The way the caucus system is set up, the second choice of voters could be as important (if not more) than their first choice. Which is why the polls are virtually useless in predicting who will actually win.

D2bets · Jan 19, 2004

It's also rather difficult to poll from a state of 3 million people when arather unique 125K tops will actually show up. Trying to find those people is like a needle in a haystack. My hunch tells me that a lot of Kerry's support is late support from people seeing his effective TV ads -- many of whom probably will not be caucusgoers. Gephardt's support is so hardcore that those who poll for him will also caucus for him. I just think the stry will be that organization beats polls and momentum i.e. Dean and Gephardt are the top two.

MudSlideSlim · Jan 19, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
CLARK not even campaining for the Iowa Caucus.

Not a factor.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Gen Clark is losing ground in NH and is the only one there in person campaigning!

After tonight and when the other boys focus on the Gen he will finish at best 3rd in NH.

Fishhead · Jan 19, 2004

Slim- I hope your right.

MudSlideSlim · Jan 20, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Mud Slide Slim:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
CLARK not even campaining for the Iowa Caucus.

Not a factor.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Gen Clark is losing ground in NH and is the only one there in person campaigning!

After tonight and when the other boys focus on the Gen he will finish at best 3rd in NH.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

clark is 3rd behind Kerry by 4% pts. will get worse for the good general. edwards may give clark a run for 3rd place