If Bet Wagering

TheGeneral+ · Aug 15, 2003

Game A
Game B
Game C
Game D

Let's use $100 as a normal wager.

If I like a side in these four games and lose the 1st 2, and I am very confident I will not lose all 4, then I choose to...

Wager my selection as normal on Game C & I will also wager an If Bet for $10 opposite of my choice in Game C, If the opposite Wins Game C, then enough on the second part of the If Bet to cover my losses and a profit on game D.(Approx: $400)

If I win $89 on Game C, then I would just wager $100 on Game D.

Chasing comes to mind, but the odds are better for that 4th game if you have lost 3 of 4 already or are they? Just thinking out loud. Could lose em all except the $10.(-$760)

Best case +$80, Worst case -$760

Thoughts/Opinions?

Thanks

DannyMay · Aug 15, 2003

General,

You know better that that.

The odds are better on the fourth game if you lose the first 3 ?

TheGeneral+ · Aug 15, 2003

I think so Danny. It is not often that I look at results and see an 0-4 streak ATS. I know it happens and I have been there, but Very few times. Just a post for opinions. Maybe some other ideas will pop in.

TTinCO · Aug 15, 2003

Independent unrelated events. End of story.

DannyMay · Aug 15, 2003

No.

Once the first three have lost it wont change the odds on game #4.

It is not likely you will flip a coin 10 times and get tails all ten times, but if the first 9 flips all give you a tail that doesnt change the odds on the tenth flip. Its still 50 %.

TheGeneral+ · Aug 15, 2003

Thanks TTinCO.

In essence here, I am risking $440 that I will not go 0-4 or $430 minus the $10.

DannyMay · Aug 15, 2003

Unless there is some correlation. Say for instance.

#1 Los Angeles Over 6
#2 Los Angeles + 1 1/2 runs

Here losing the first play may slightly increase your chances of hitting play #2. You know that game has scored less than 6 runs so the chances of the favorite winning by 2 runs may be slightly less. However if the events are unrelated the outcome of your first 3 games cant possibly affect your fourth game. It is just natural to feel that you are due after losing the first 3.