JMan:
Not easy this time of year as matching different conferences, emotional levels, strength of schedule, etc. is significantly more difficult then capping conference play throughout the year. You are wise to know your own traits and lay low when appropriate. Just one of many good money management policies. Best of luck the remainder of the bowl season.
In my opinion, this year's bowl schedule presented one of the more difficult match-up challenges in recent memory. Many of the bowls, I have had to decide not to play going in, but rather wait and look for value for the second half. It has shown to be a nice approach for me this year. Able to get a better read on the teams after a half of play.