Why do you need it?
My guess is -200 or greater occurs something like 130-150 times during the season and over multiple years the winning % corresponds to the average moneyline of those games.
So if it is -225 then it is around 68%.....Over 1 season you could get some deviation but a few seasons it will be around that.
My guess is -200 or greater occurs something like 130-150 times during the season and over multiple years the winning % corresponds to the average moneyline of those games.
So if it is -225 then it is around 68%.....Over 1 season you could get some deviation but a few seasons it will be around that.
THis is NL Home teams > than -200
Listed RL ML Lost ML Lost by ARL
20-6-3-9 when the line move up....ML hits 68.4%
11-5-3-3 when the line move down.....ML hits 72.4%
>-220?
27-9-4-10 when up
7-4-2-3 when down
This is data from 2012-2015....then my dropbox crashed and I could not recover the data I was entered for 2016...
If you want PM me and I will send you the spread sheet - there's lots of info that could be useful
<tbody>
</tbody>
Listed RL ML Lost ML Lost by ARL
20-6-3-9 when the line move up....ML hits 68.4%
11-5-3-3 when the line move down.....ML hits 72.4%
>-220?
27-9-4-10 when up
7-4-2-3 when down
This is data from 2012-2015....then my dropbox crashed and I could not recover the data I was entered for 2016...
If you want PM me and I will send you the spread sheet - there's lots of info that could be useful
<tbody>
</tbody>
Cubs had more games at -200 or higher then any other team.
<tbody>
</tbody>
| Date | Vs | Score | Away Starter | Home Starter | CHC Line | O/U |
| 10/02/16 | @ CIN | W 7-4 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Robert Stephenson (R) | W -240 | O 8.5 -100 |
| 10/01/16 | @ CIN | L 4-7 | Jon Lester (L) | Tim Adleman (R) | L -216 | O 8.5 103 |
| 09/30/16 | @ CIN | W 7-3 | Jake Buchanan (R) | Joshua Smith (R) | W -159 | O 9.5 102 |
| 09/29/16 | @ PIT | 1-1 | Rob Zastryzny (L) | Ivan Nova (R) | - 134 | U 7.5 -105 |
| 09/28/16 | @ PIT | L 4-8 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Jameson Taillon (R) | L -167 | O 7.5 105 |
| 09/27/16 | @ PIT | W 6-4 | John Lackey (R) | Ryan Vogelsong (R) | W -139 | O 8.5 102 |
| 09/26/16 | @ PIT | W 12-2 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Chad Kuhl (R) | W -165 | O 7.5 100 |
| 09/25/16 | STL | W 3-1 | Carlos Martinez (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -159 | U 9 -134 |
| 09/24/16 | STL | L 4-10 | Alex Reyes (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | L -133 | O 8 104 |
| 09/23/16 | STL | W 5-0 | Mike Leake (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -187 | U 7 111 |
| 09/21/16 | CIN | W 9-2 | Robert Stephenson (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -235 | O 9 -107 |
| 09/20/16 | CIN | W 6-1 | Joshua Smith (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -271 | U 8 -109 |
| 09/19/16 | CIN | W 5-2 | Tim Adleman (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -265 | U 9.5 -108 |
| 09/18/16 | MIL | L 1-3 | Wily Peralta (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | L -320 | U 8.5 -118 |
| 09/17/16 | MIL | L 3-11 | Zach Davies (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -202 | O 8.5 104 |
| 09/16/16 | MIL | W 5-4 | Chase Anderson (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -160 | P 9 - |
| 09/15/16 | MIL | L 4-5 | Jimmy Nelson (R) | Mike Montgomery (L) | L -210 | O 8.5 -125 |
| 09/14/16 | @ STL | W 7-0 | Jon Lester (L) | Carlos Martinez (R) | W -133 | U 7.5 -120 |
| 09/13/16 | @ STL | L 2-4 | Jason Hammel (R) | Jaime Garcia (L) | L 102 | U 8.5 -104 |
| 09/12/16 | @ STL | W 4-1 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Mike Leake (R) | W -139 | U 8 -123 |
| 09/11/16 | @ HOU | W 9-5 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Mike Fiers (R) | W -133 | O 7.5 -104 |
| 09/10/16 | @ HOU | L 1-2 | John Lackey (R) | Collin McHugh (R) | L 101 | U 8 -121 |
| 09/09/16 | @ HOU | W 2-0 | Jon Lester (L) | Joe Musgrove (R) | W -137 | U 7.5 111 |
| 09/07/16 | @ MIL | L 1-2 | Mike Montgomery (L) | Matt Garza (R) | L -164 | U 9.5 -109 |
| 09/06/16 | @ MIL | L 5-12 | Jason Hammel (R) | Wily Peralta (R) | L -168 | O 9 -115 |
| 09/05/16 | @ MIL | W 7-2 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Zach Davies (R) | W -176 | O 8 -105 |
| 09/04/16 | SF | W 3-2 | Johnny Cueto (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -138 | U 8 -115 |
| 09/03/16 | SF | L 2-3 | Madison Bumgarner (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -129 | U 7 105 |
| 09/02/16 | SF | W 2-1 | Albert Suarez (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -223 | U 8 -120 |
| 09/01/16 | SF | W 5-4 | Jeff Samardzija (R) | Mike Montgomery (L) | W -133 | O 8 103 |
| 08/31/16 | PIT | W 6-5 | Ryan Vogelsong (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -173 | O 8 -110 |
| 08/30/16 | PIT | W 3-0 | Chad Kuhl (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -200 | U 8.5 -108 |
| 08/29/16 | PIT | W 8-7 | Steven Brault (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -231 | O 8 -114 |
| 08/28/16 | @ LAD | L 0-1 | Jon Lester (L) | Brock Stewart (R) | L -156 | U 8 -105 |
| 08/27/16 | @ LAD | L 2-3 | Jason Hammel (R) | Julio Urias (L) | L 119 | U 7.5 116 |
| 08/26/16 | @ LAD | W 6-4 | Mike Montgomery (L) | Bud Norris (R) | W -140 | O 8 100 |
| 08/24/16 | @ SD | W 6-3 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Paul Clemens (R) | W -235 | O 8.5 -105 |
| 08/23/16 | @ SD | W 5-3 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Christian Friedrich (L) | W -257 | P 8 - |
| 08/22/16 | @ SD | W 5-1 | Jon Lester (L) | Edwin Jackson (R) | W -225 | U 8 -107 |
| 08/21/16 | @ COL | L 4-11 | Jason Hammel (R) | Jorge De La Rosa (L) | L -153 | O 12.5 -119 |
| 08/20/16 | @ COL | W 9-2 | Mike Montgomery (L) | Jeff Hoffman (R) | W -134 | U 12 -106 |
| 08/19/16 | @ COL | L 6-7 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Tyler Anderson (L) | L -133 | O 10 -109 |
| 08/18/16 | MIL | W 9-6 | Zach Davies (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -260 | O 8 107 |
| 08/17/16 | MIL | W 6-1 | Jimmy Nelson (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -325 | U 9 -115 |
| 08/16/16 | MIL | W 4-1 | Chase Anderson (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -191 | U 8.5 111 |
| 08/16/16 | MIL | W 4-0 | Matt Garza (R) | Trevor Cahill (R) | W -206 | U 9 -115 |
| 08/14/16 | STL | L 4-6 | Mike Leake (R) | John Lackey (R) | L -172 | O 8.5 104 |
| 08/13/16 | STL | L 4-8 | Luke Weaver (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | L -200 | O 9 100 |
| 08/12/16 | STL | W 13-2 | Adam Wainwright (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -167 | O 8 -120 |
| 08/11/16 | STL | W 4-3 | Carlos Martinez (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -168 | U 9 103 |
| 08/10/16 | LAA | W 3-1 | Ricky Nolasco (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -203 | U 9 -116 |
| 08/09/16 | LAA | W 5-1 | Jered Weaver (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -230 | U 9 -103 |
| 08/07/16 | @ OAK | W 3-1 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Sean Manaea (L) | W -163 | U 8 -107 |
| 08/06/16 | @ OAK | W 4-0 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Sonny Gray (R) | W -185 | U 7.5 -107 |
| 08/05/16 | @ OAK | W 7-2 | Jon Lester (L) | Dillon Overton (L) | W -199 | O 8.5 102 |
| 08/03/16 | MIA | W 5-4 | Tom Koehler (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -219 | O 8.5 -127 |
| 08/02/16 | MIA | W 3-2 | Jose Fernandez (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W 108 | U 7 -103 |
| 08/01/16 | MIA | W 5-0 | Adam Conley (L) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -171 | U 7.5 -102 |
| 07/31/16 | SEA | W 7-6 | Felix Hernandez (R) | Brian Matusz (L) | W -119 | O 8.5 -116 |
| 07/30/16 | SEA | L 1-4 | Wade Miley (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -231 | U 7.5 -115 |
| 07/29/16 | SEA | W 12-1 | Hisashi Iwakuma (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -160 | O 7.5 112 |
| 07/28/16 | CHW | W 3-1 | Chris Sale (L) | John Lackey (R) | W -136 | U 6.5 121 |
| 07/27/16 | CHW | W 8-1 | Anthony Ranaudo (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -270 | P 9 - |
| 07/26/16 | @ CHW | L 0-3 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | James Shields (R) | L -185 | U 9 -113 |
| 07/25/16 | @ CHW | L 4-5 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Miguel Gonzalez (R) | L -215 | P 9 - |
| 07/24/16 | @ MIL | W 6-5 | Jon Lester (L) | Junior Guerra (R) | W -146 | O 8 -113 |
| 07/23/16 | @ MIL | L 1-6 | John Lackey (R) | Zach Davies (R) | L -141 | U 8.5 116 |
| 07/22/16 | @ MIL | W 5-2 | Jason Hammel (R) | Jimmy Nelson (R) | W -153 | U 9 115 |
| 07/20/16 | NYM | W 6-2 | Bartolo Colon (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -205 | U 9.5 102 |
| 07/19/16 | NYM | L 1-2 | Noah Syndergaard (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -161 | U 6.5 102 |
| 07/18/16 | NYM | W 5-1 | Steven Matz (L) | Jon Lester (L) | W -148 | U 7.5 101 |
| 07/17/16 | TEX | L 1-4 | Cole Hamels (L) | John Lackey (R) | L -127 | U 9.5 -119 |
| 07/16/16 | TEX | W 3-1 | Yu Darvish (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -125 | U 7.5 -105 |
| 07/15/16 | TEX | W 6-0 | Martin Perez (L) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -188 | U 8.5 -113 |
| 07/10/16 | @ PIT | W 6-5 | John Lackey (R) | Jonathon Niese (L) | W -148 | O 9 -109 |
| 07/09/16 | @ PIT | L 6-12 | Jon Lester (L) | Chad Kuhl (R) | L -165 | O 9 100 |
| 07/08/16 | @ PIT | L 4-8 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Francisco Liriano (L) | L -200 | O 8 -116 |
| 07/07/16 | ATL | L 3-4 | Lucas Harrell (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | L -255 | U 10 -123 |
| 07/06/16 | CIN | L 3-5 | Anthony DeSclafani (R) | Adam Warren (R) | L -181 | U 10.5 102 |
| 07/05/16 | CIN | L 5-9 | Brandon Finnegan (L) | John Lackey (R) | L -280 | O 9.5 -117 |
| 07/04/16 | CIN | W 10-4 | Cody Reed (L) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -208 | O 8.5 -112 |
| 07/03/16 | @ NYM | L 3-14 | Jon Lester (L) | Noah Syndergaard (R) | L -105 | O 6.5 -108 |
| 07/02/16 | @ NYM | L 3-4 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Bartolo Colon (R) | L -220 | P 7 - |
| 07/01/16 | @ NYM | L 2-10 | Jason Hammel (R) | Jacob deGrom (R) | L 100 | O 7 -111 |
| 06/30/16 | @ NYM | L 3-4 | John Lackey (R) | Steven Matz (L) | L -135 | U 7.5 -123 |
| 06/29/16 | @ CIN | W 9-2 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Cody Reed (L) | W -175 | O 9 101 |
| 06/28/16 | @ CIN | W 7-2 | Jon Lester (L) | John Lamb (L) | W -235 | P 9 - |
| 06/27/16 | @ CIN | W 11-8 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Dan Straily (R) | W -277 | O 8.5 -103 |
| 06/26/16 | @ MIA | L 1-6 | Jason Hammel (R) | Jose Fernandez (R) | L 138 | O 6.5 -117 |
| 06/25/16 | @ MIA | L 6-9 | John Lackey (R) | Paul Clemens (R) | L -185 | O 8 -116 |
| 06/24/16 | @ MIA | W 5-4 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Tom Koehler (R) | W -140 | O 7.5 -113 |
| 06/23/16 | @ MIA | L 2-4 | Jon Lester (L) | Wei-Yin Chen (L) | L -170 | U 7.5 -129 |
| 06/22/16 | STL | L 2-7 | Michael Wacha (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -250 | O 7.5 -112 |
| 06/21/16 | STL | L 3-4 | Adam Wainwright (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | L -140 | U 8.5 106 |
| 06/20/16 | STL | L 2-3 | Jaime Garcia (L) | John Lackey (R) | L -153 | U 8.5 -115 |
| 06/19/16 | PIT | W 10-5 | Jameson Taillon (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -160 | O 9 -112 |
| 06/18/16 | PIT | W 4-3 | Jonathon Niese (L) | Jon Lester (L) | W -248 | U 8 -109 |
| 06/17/16 | PIT | W 6-0 | Francisco Liriano (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -250 | U 7 -136 |
| 06/15/16 | @ WAS | L 4-5 | Jason Hammel (R) | Stephen Strasburg (R) | L 138 | O 7.5 108 |
| 06/14/16 | @ WAS | W 4-3 | John Lackey (R) | Gio Gonzalez (L) | W -126 | U 8 -109 |
| 06/13/16 | @ WAS | L 1-4 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Max Scherzer (R) | L 120 | U 7.5 -113 |
| 06/12/16 | @ ATL | W 13-2 | Jon Lester (L) | John Gant (R) | W -248 | O 8 -105 |
| 06/11/16 | @ ATL | W 8-2 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Matt Wisler (R) | W -295 | O 7.5 -106 |
| 06/10/16 | @ ATL | L 1-5 | Jason Hammel (R) | Bud Norris (R) | L -201 | U 8 100 |
| 06/08/16 | @ PHI | W 8-1 | John Lackey (R) | Vince Velasquez (R) | W -180 | O 7.5 -103 |
| 06/07/16 | @ PHI | L 2-3 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Jerad Eickhoff (R) | L -190 | U 8 -108 |
| 06/06/16 | @ PHI | W 6-4 | Jon Lester (L) | Adam Morgan (L) | W -265 | O 8.5 -103 |
| 06/05/16 | ARI | L 2-3 | Patrick Corbin (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -308 | U 8 -121 |
| 06/04/16 | ARI | W 5-3 | Edwin Escobar (L) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -280 | U 10 100 |
| 06/03/16 | ARI | W 6-0 | Archie Bradley (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -250 | U 8.5 102 |
| 06/02/16 | LAD | W 7-2 | Julio Urias (L) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -163 | O 8.5 -128 |
| 06/01/16 | LAD | W 2-1 | Mike Bolsinger (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -205 | U 8.5 -113 |
| 05/31/16 | LAD | L 0-5 | Scott Kazmir (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | L -210 | U 7.5 -105 |
| 05/30/16 | LAD | W 2-0 | Alex Wood (L) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -125 | U 8.5 102 |
| 05/29/16 | PHI | W 7-2 | Vince Velasquez (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -203 | U 9.5 -123 |
| 05/28/16 | PHI | W 4-1 | Jerad Eickhoff (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -250 | U 9.5 102 |
| 05/27/16 | PHI | W 6-2 | Adam Morgan (L) | Jon Lester (L) | W -285 | U 9 -115 |
| 05/25/16 | @ STL | W 9-8 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Carlos Martinez (R) | W -180 | O 7 -134 |
| 05/24/16 | @ STL | W 12-3 | Jason Hammel (R) | Michael Wacha (R) | W -117 | O 8 102 |
| 05/23/16 | @ STL | L 3-4 | John Lackey (R) | Adam Wainwright (R) | L -106 | U 8 -113 |
| 05/22/16 | @ SF | L 0-1 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Madison Bumgarner (L) | L 126 | U 7 -114 |
| 05/21/16 | @ SF | L 3-5 | Jon Lester (L) | Matt Cain (R) | L -167 | O 7.5 -106 |
| 05/20/16 | @ SF | W 8-1 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Jake Peavy (R) | W -180 | O 7 -123 |
| 05/19/16 | @ MIL | L 3-5 | Jason Hammel (R) | Junior Guerra (R) | L -190 | U 8.5 111 |
| 05/18/16 | @ MIL | W 2-1 | John Lackey (R) | Jimmy Nelson (R) | W -175 | U 8.5 -108 |
| 05/17/16 | @ MIL | L 2-4 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Chase Anderson (R) | L -193 | U 8.5 106 |
| 05/15/16 | PIT | L 1-2 | Gerrit Cole (R) | Jon Lester (L) | L -144 | U 7.5 -107 |
| 05/14/16 | PIT | W 8-2 | Jeff Locke (L) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -290 | O 8.5 103 |
| 05/13/16 | PIT | W 9-4 | Francisco Liriano (L) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -137 | O 9 113 |
| 05/11/16 | SD | L 0-1 | Drew Pomeranz (L) | John Lackey (R) | L -203 | U 7.5 -117 |
| 05/11/16 | SD | L 4-7 | Colin Rea (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | L -253 | O 8 102 |
| 05/10/16 | SD | W 8-7 | Cesar Vargas (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -255 | O 7.5 113 |
| 05/08/16 | WAS | W 4-3 | Tanner Roark (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -220 | U 8 110 |
| 05/07/16 | WAS | W 8-5 | Gio Gonzalez (L) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -142 | O 7.5 105 |
| 05/06/16 | WAS | W 8-6 | Max Scherzer (R) | John Lackey (R) | W 100 | O 8.5 -110 |
| 05/05/16 | WAS | W 5-2 | Joe Ross (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -138 | U 7.5 -123 |
| 05/04/16 | @ PIT | W 6-2 | Jon Lester (L) | Juan Nicasio (R) | W -125 | O 7.5 110 |
| 05/03/16 | @ PIT | W 7-1 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Jonathon Niese (L) | W -176 | O 7.5 106 |
| 05/02/16 | @ PIT | W 7-2 | Jason Hammel (R) | Gerrit Cole (R) | W 128 | O 7 -117 |
| 05/01/16 | ATL | L 3-4 | Julio Teheran (R) | John Lackey (R) | L -203 | O 6.5 -130 |
| 04/29/16 | ATL | W 6-1 | Aaron Blair (R) | Jon Lester (L) | W -270 | P 7 - |
| 04/28/16 | MIL | W 7-2 | Taylor Jungmann (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -365 | O 6.5 100 |
| 04/26/16 | MIL | W 4-3 | Jimmy Nelson (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | W -226 | U 7.5 -126 |
| 04/24/16 | @ CIN | W 9-0 | Jason Hammel (R) | Alfredo Simon (R) | W -160 | P 9 - |
| 04/23/16 | @ CIN | L 5-13 | John Lackey (R) | Dan Straily (R) | L -166 | O 8.5 109 |
| 04/22/16 | @ CIN | W 8-1 | Jon Lester (L) | Jon Moscot (R) | W -208 | O 8.5 -119 |
| 04/21/16 | @ CIN | W 16-0 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Brandon Finnegan (L) | W -197 | O 7.5 104 |
| 04/20/16 | @ STL | L 3-5 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Carlos Martinez (R) | L 103 | O 7.5 108 |
| 04/19/16 | @ STL | W 2-1 | Jason Hammel (R) | Jaime Garcia (L) | W 107 | U 7.5 -103 |
| 04/18/16 | @ STL | W 5-0 | John Lackey (R) | Mike Leake (R) | W -111 | U 8 102 |
| 04/17/16 | COL | L 0-2 | Tyler Chatwood (R) | Jon Lester (L) | L -230 | U 7 118 |
| 04/16/16 | COL | W 6-2 | Christian Bergman (R) | Jake Arrieta (R) | W -304 | O 7 100 |
| 04/15/16 | COL | L 1-6 | Chad Bettis (R) | Kyle Hendricks (R) | L -235 | U 7.5 -123 |
| 04/14/16 | CIN | W 8-1 | Raisel Iglesias (R) | Jason Hammel (R) | W -155 | O 7 -105 |
| 04/13/16 | CIN | W 9-2 | Alfredo Simon (R) | John Lackey (R) | W -188 | O 7.5 -101 |
| 04/11/16 | CIN | W 5-3 | Brandon Finnegan (L) | Jon Lester (L) | W -185 | O 7 -114 |
| 04/10/16 | @ ARI | W 7-3 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Shelby Miller (R) | W -202 | O 8 -107 |
| 04/09/16 | @ ARI | W 4-2 | Kyle Hendricks (R) | Zack Greinke (R) | W -107 | U 8 111 |
| 04/08/16 | @ ARI | L 2-3 | Jason Hammel (R) | Robbie Ray (L) | L -123 | U 9 -111 |
| 04/07/16 | @ ARI | W 14-6 | John Lackey (R) | Rubby De La Rosa (R) | W -161 | O 9 -113 |
| 04/05/16 | @ LAA | W 6-1 | Jon Lester (L) | Andrew Heaney (L) | W -122 | U 7.5 -113 |
| 04/04/16 | @ LAA | W 9-0 | Jake Arrieta (R) | Garrett Richards (R) | W -137 | O 7 110 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
http://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...ne<=-200+and+season=2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
| F and line <= -200 and season = 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<tbody> </tbody> |
<tbody>
</tbody>
by season (SU far left)
F and line <= -200 and ...
<caption></caption><thead>
</thead><tbody>
</tbody>Showing 1 to 13 of 13 entries
F and line <= -200 and ...
| games | SU W - L (marg, %win) | Avg Line | o:Avg Line | $ On | $ Against | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | $ Over | $ Under | SDQL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 284 | 198-86 (1.80, 69.7%) | -234.6 | 210.8 | +$123 | -$2,124 | 142-130-12 (0.76, 52.2%) | 8.1 | -$15 | -$2,257 | season = 2016 |
| 162 | 120-42 (1.99, 74.1%) | -228.2 | 202.8 | +$2,510 | -$3,580 | 81-76-5 (1.11, 51.6%) | 7.5 | -$363 | -$1,208 | season = 2015 |
| 126 | 99-27 (2.25, 78.6%) | -225.7 | 194.2 | +$3,990 | -$4,750 | 59-58-9 (0.60, 50.4%) | 7.5 | -$375 | -$735 | season = 2014 |
| 229 | 153-76 (1.49, 66.8%) | -231.8 | 200.2 | -$2,285 | -$85 | 95-124-9 (-0.17, 43.4%) | 8.0 | -$4,025 | +$1,795 | season = 2013 |
| 203 | 155-48 (2.39, 76.4%) | -224.6 | 190.7 | +$4,716 | -$6,356 | 96-99-8 (0.30, 49.2%) | 8.3 | -$1,200 | -$720 | season = 2012 |
| 190 | 127-63 (1.76, 66.8%) | -222.8 | 189.4 | -$1,060 | -$1,008 | 97-79-13 (0.72, 55.1%) | 8.3 | +$990 | -$2,875 | season = 2011 |
| 312 | 209-103 (1.50, 67.0%) | -232.1 | 197.5 | -$2,655 | -$900 | 139-155-18 (0.40, 47.3%) | 8.5 | -$2,980 | +$310 | season = 2010 |
| 262 | 179-83 (1.66, 68.3%) | -233.1 | 197.2 | -$1,220 | -$1,660 | 131-117-11 (0.41, 52.8%) | 8.9 | +$280 | -$3,100 | season = 2009 |
| 239 | 164-75 (1.93, 68.6%) | -228.5 | 193.1 | -$330 | -$2,175 | 106-121-12 (0.47, 46.7%) | 8.8 | -$2,625 | +$340 | season = 2008 |
| 263 | 167-96 (1.52, 63.5%) | -224.6 | 191.6 | -$4,890 | +$1,700 | 127-113-23 (0.81, 52.9%) | 9.1 | +$565 | -$2,820 | season = 2007 |
| 262 | 175-87 (1.43, 66.8%) | -233.7 | 197.0 | -$2,330 | -$765 | 126-126-10 (0.34, 50.0%) | 9.2 | -$1,005 | -$1,395 | season = 2006 |
| 297 | 211-86 (1.74, 71.0%) | -227.9 | 193.9 | +$1,515 | -$4,425 | 144-137-16 (0.65, 51.2%) | 8.7 | -$220 | -$2,295 | season = 2005 |
| 359 | 241-118 (1.41, 67.1%) | -240.8 | 203.0 | -$4,000 | -$360 | 172-170-17 (0.59, 50.3%) | 9.0 | -$1,500 | -$1,920 | season = 2004 |
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appreciate everyone answering.
I was having an argument with my buddy. he told me that the spread/ML reflect the odds of a team winning. I argued that in football mostly that a team being a favorite of -200 doesn't give them a greater chance at winning. Before the game starts thats the odds are 50/50. Id love to be flat out convinced im wrong, however i don't believe i am.
example: the cars without love and irving were -5 -220 against the bulls last night. you cannot tell me the cavs win that game 66%+ of the time. its a coin flip game with a +200 tag on the underdog for reasons id love to know
I was having an argument with my buddy. he told me that the spread/ML reflect the odds of a team winning. I argued that in football mostly that a team being a favorite of -200 doesn't give them a greater chance at winning. Before the game starts thats the odds are 50/50. Id love to be flat out convinced im wrong, however i don't believe i am.
example: the cars without love and irving were -5 -220 against the bulls last night. you cannot tell me the cavs win that game 66%+ of the time. its a coin flip game with a +200 tag on the underdog for reasons id love to know
the NFL as a whole was 79-131 SU as underdogs of 2-9 .342 right on par with the side im disagreeing with.
the NFL without the BROWNS JAGS and BEARS are 74-99 SU as underdogs of 2-9 .428 where im coming from.
take it for what its worth. those 3 shit teams make the average what it is, but the rest of the NFL youre looking at an almost 50/50 coin flip getting + money.
Ill argue it till i die.
the NFL without the BROWNS JAGS and BEARS are 74-99 SU as underdogs of 2-9 .428 where im coming from.
take it for what its worth. those 3 shit teams make the average what it is, but the rest of the NFL youre looking at an almost 50/50 coin flip getting + money.
Ill argue it till i die.
If the true odds on the Bulls were 50%, that means 1/2 of the time you win 200 and 1/2 of the of the time you lose 100. Or (200 - 100)/2 = 50% edge. On an NBA money line, you should have no problem betting at least $3000, probably more like $5000. Which gives you an EV of at least $1500. Between NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, college football, college basketball, there will be quite a few +200 dogs every single day. Bet them all for the max and when 1/2 of them win you'll easily earn several million every year. If you aren't earning that much, it's obvious they aren't winning close to 50% of the time
0.428 is quite a lot different than 0.5. Removing examples that disprove your position is quite a lot different than looking at the entire picture.
If you'll only argue about it on internet chatrooms instead of making max bets on all of these dogs it's pretty clear your position is wrong.
