I like both dogs today -- here is why:
Bengals + 4.5
Cinci is the better running team, the better defense and has been playing way better. I will admit, I underestimated the impact of the loss of Bell on the Steelers, but I think Green is less of a loss, since Dalton sometimes spend half the game trying to satiate him with targets and it makes him sloppy.
The late line movement scares me, admittedly, but I hear the public is something like 8-1 in favor of the Colts. Makes sense -- Andrew Luck has been clutch and has won playoff games. I think Coach Lewis and Dalton are dolts. But sometimes it seems there is money to be made on dolts.
Lions +7
I think these teams are more equal than the line indicates. Both teams have Qbs with no clutch record, both teams have amazing talent on offense, and the Lions are much better on defense. Plus, the Cowboys biggest strength -- the running game -- is going up against one of the top run defenses in the league. I would not be stunned if the Lions win, but I almost never take ML bets.
As an aside, my Sharp Bet Tracker says I am -- by far and away -- at my best when taking road underdogs. My winning percentage for this season is comically high on this very specific bet. The sample size is not huge, so it is probably an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.
2 units each. Trying to avoid making bets on totals of halftime bets as that cost me two needless units on Pitt!
Bengals + 4.5
Cinci is the better running team, the better defense and has been playing way better. I will admit, I underestimated the impact of the loss of Bell on the Steelers, but I think Green is less of a loss, since Dalton sometimes spend half the game trying to satiate him with targets and it makes him sloppy.
The late line movement scares me, admittedly, but I hear the public is something like 8-1 in favor of the Colts. Makes sense -- Andrew Luck has been clutch and has won playoff games. I think Coach Lewis and Dalton are dolts. But sometimes it seems there is money to be made on dolts.
Lions +7
I think these teams are more equal than the line indicates. Both teams have Qbs with no clutch record, both teams have amazing talent on offense, and the Lions are much better on defense. Plus, the Cowboys biggest strength -- the running game -- is going up against one of the top run defenses in the league. I would not be stunned if the Lions win, but I almost never take ML bets.
As an aside, my Sharp Bet Tracker says I am -- by far and away -- at my best when taking road underdogs. My winning percentage for this season is comically high on this very specific bet. The sample size is not huge, so it is probably an outlier, but interesting nonetheless.
2 units each. Trying to avoid making bets on totals of halftime bets as that cost me two needless units on Pitt!
