I just ordered Shandlers bases forcaster>>

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PatPatriot

PatPatriot

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Those of you who have had it before what is the best feature about it when it come to capping bases?
 
Budworth22

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Patriot, its the pitching stats. By far. Gl
Bud
 

Hobbes

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It's all useful, but on a game to game basis the starting pitching data is the easiest to calculate and utilize. Pay attention to the pitching essays beginning on pg. 27, and also the PQS info on 147. It will take time to absorb all the material. PQS scores are relatively easy to compute on your own, although the Forecaster site keeps lots of stats like these.

All of the other material is valuable in that it helps you better understand the game of baseball, and thus allows you to disregard alot of the traditional stats that most cappers use. It's all meant to improve performance prediction, and that is what capping is all about. Just don't get overwhelmed by all the numbers, after a while you will get the hang of it...
 
PatPatriot

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Yeah thanks Hobbes.I ordered it because of all the rave reviews regrding pitching angles.

One aspect I'd like to focus on this year is betting the dog with the better bullpen.I think betting starters is overated in this day and age.
I think favs are way overvalued because of starting pitching matchups.
 

Mookdog

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Agree, Patriot. Just haven't found the formula I'm satisfied with. Would be interested to hear if you guys have.
 
LakersFan4Life

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yes i agree as well patroit as many know when u got a lights out closer and a nice set-up man like the dodgers did with mota and gagne or the yanks with gordon and rivera your almost at a two inning advantage.i think thats much more valuable then someone who goes 5 or 6 and gives up 3-4 runs.
 

Hobbes

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Just a note on relievers, I agree that there is value to be found in giving more credence to the bullpen. This is largely the case because few cappers take/have the time to delve into the stat lines of another 5 pitchers for every game.

Referencing Laker, starting pitchers are still more important to their teams because they use up more innings, and when capping every inning is largely weighted equally, the 4th is as important as the 9th to the overall score. So when you have a tangible advantage with a starting pitcher you are getting a 6 or 7 inning advantage over the opponent, which is obviously more valuable than the 1-2 inning advantage a top setup man and closer can provide.

The other point is that many major league managers do not do a good job utilizing their elite closers in non-save opportunity situations. Most closers rarely see the field unless they are leading, even though there is more value throwing Gagne out there in a tie game then when the Dodgers are up 3. Many closers actually prefer this strategy, because it maximizes their save opportunities which many times lead to triggered contract incentives or better future contracts.

The point here is that when capping a team with a great closer it is important to remember that his appearance in the game is dependent on all the preceding pitchers; a bullpen with a top closer and setup man loses alot of value when they never get to the see the field. So it behooves us to weigh the middle relievers as much as the closers, if not more so. Not saying that's not being proposed here, just throwing out why a Scot Shields might deserve as much attention as a Francisco Rodriguez.
 

JamieTursini

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I think it's important not to go overboard on stats. You can drive yourself crazy. What type of pitchers are you dealing with? Groundball, flyball etc. Same for hitting. Handicapping is a science, but it's not rocket science. Once you realize that, you won't get overwhelmed. And you'll become a better handicapper.
 

silverfox

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yes how do i get this system does it predicted baseball games pretty good and where do i get this program thank you
 

Hobbes

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It's not a system, it's a book. It is written for the fantasy baseball crowd. It incorporates all the newest statistical tools in its analysis of players and future performance, so it is works well for handicapping. But this is no black box, you have to take the data and run with it. You can get the book at baseballhq.com, which is run by the guys who write the book. For anyone turned off by the fact it is a fantasy baseball book, the guy who runs the company was employed by the St. Louis Cardinals last year to help with player evaluations, so some people in high places put alot of stock in this stuff.
 

silverfox

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but is there a baseball system that you could by someone that was a member here had that system but i can not remmember his name
 
PatPatriot

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Yeah I got it. I should put the money in the other pocket.

It has a lot of stats regarding fantasy stuff. There is a section on pitching and quality starts and also has a predictive formula regarding wether or not they will be having a better or worse year.

I also got Phil Erwins 2004 baseball annual that has some of the same stats in a more easy read format that includes PQS pct. of dominate and disaster starts.

Also Baseball insight has a complete log of all games with lines that makes for a great systems tester.

I would like to know if someone out there has bought the book "Curveball".
That is supposed to have a formula regarding team streaks to tell if a team is ready to streak or not or if a streak is "real" with some sort of predictive indicators.
 

Shotgun

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Patriot said:
I would like to know if someone out there has bought the book "Curveball".
That is supposed to have a formula regarding team streaks to tell if a team is ready to streak or not or if a streak is "real" with some sort of predictive indicators.

It is a pretty good book but isn't designed for betting. It has been a while since I read the book, but the only thing I remember about streaks is a study they did about streaky hitters. If I remember correctly, they spent a lot of time showing data that indicates streaks are generally random, then disputed that finding by saying they "feel" streaks are real. Maybe they are, and maybe they aren't. But I haven't seen any evidence showing when you can predict a streak.

That was my only problem with the book. I did like the way it made you think about the data in baseball. Don't pay retail though; get it at the library.
 
PatPatriot

PatPatriot

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Thanks SG, I'll save my money.

I like Phil Erwins stuff anyway he has a simplified list of A type pitchers,B type etc. based on some of those same fantasy stats,what I like best is not so much how the A type guys pitch as favorites, but how they pitch as dogs with winning pct well into the 50-60% range.
 

Hobbes

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"Curveball" can be very difficult to read unless you have alot of experience in statistical analysis. I found myself skipping to the conclusions quite a bit in a few chapters. The chapter on streaks has a study on streakiness for all the teams in the 1998 season. They found that only one team (Baltimore) displayed an unusual level of streakiness. Essentially they said that IF there is streakiness it is almost impossible to find; the more likely conclusion that is supported by the math is that streakiness is a concept we create out of thin air as we attempt to discern patterns in what is basically random data. This chapter was one of the final nails in the coffin for me on the whole streak thing.

At the end they throw out something about how when they were kids shooting baskets they would sometimes feel like they were in the zone, and could shoot better. I am not sure why they put this in the chapter, it doesn't really mean anything. I think they were just trying to throw out a reason why people tend to believe in streaks.
 
PatPatriot

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At the end they throw out something about how when they were kids shooting baskets they would sometimes feel like they were in the zone, and could shoot better. I am not sure why they put this in the chapter, it doesn't really mean anything. I think they were just trying to throw out a reason why people tend to believe in streaks.
Maybe hes just trying to point out team rythm and no way of measuring the "groove".

Have you ever tried graphs for teams W/L pct?....I mean most all teams end up the year winning 40%-60% and at some point the teams that end up playing 60% ball play at a 75% clip for a good stretch at some point they will only play 50% or less and be way overvalued (good for dog players).
I'd like to see results of 10 years worth.Seems like you'd be able to know when to "short" or "buy" ateam.
 

Hobbes

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Patriot said:
Have you ever tried graphs for teams W/L pct?....I mean most all teams end up the year winning 40%-60% and at some point the teams that end up playing 60% ball play at a 75% clip for a good stretch at some point they will only play 50% or less and be way overvalued (good for dog players).
I'd like to see results of 10 years worth.Seems like you'd be able to know when to "short" or "buy" ateam.

This is all true, teams play better or worse than expected and then usually regress to the mean. I don't use W-L graphs, but I do use a few other things to determine a teams performance related to their ability, things like Pythag reports, etc. The tools out there are pretty good for determining undervalued teams.
 

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