I got Saints over 8.5 wins - do I hedge in Week 17?

[ca$hmoney]

I got NO over 8.5 wins (-150) $300 to win $200

Current Week 17 line Carolina -3 (even/-105)

With an Atlanta loss, Carolina clinches the #2 spot but if Atlants wins and Panthers lose, the fall to the #5 I believe. Both games are at 1 pm so they won't know the Atlanta final before kickoff.

With the Saints having nothing to gain, except Brees breaking Marino's record, I don't see them winning this game.

Should I take the Carolina ML and take a little loss rather than lose all $300. I can't imagine that the Carolina ML being any larger than -200. If this is the case and I put $300 on the ML, I would win $150. And if Saints win, I would win $200.

Utlimately I would lose either $150 or $100 but that is better than losing $300 right?

Any thoughts?

 

[downtown2222]

First of all...Atlanta isn't going to lose this week.

2nd...you don't want a situation that you lose either 150 or 100.


I would just let it ride...

 

[mazinkaiser]

hedge it to minimize your loss

 

[nd2000]

With the Saints having nothing to gain, except Brees breaking Marino's record, I don't see them winning this game.

Total nonsense. Saints are nearly invincible at home. The Saints have outgained NFL foes 411-330 ypg on the season and are the 6th best team in the league according to my database. They have lost a number of close games to miss the playoffs, but a number of their wins have been blowouts.

This is a playoff caliber team that just didn't catch enough breaks in the close games to earn a playoff spot, but they are a much better team than some of the squads that will be headed to the playoffs (Arizona, SD, to name a few). With nothing to play for here, the Saints can play relaxed, pressure free football against a team that "needs" to win for a first round bye.

I'd be surprised if the Saints lose this game. They have a lot going for them here and they can gamble all they like to get the win and we all know that Coach Sean Payton is a big time risk taker. I would be absolutely terrified of laying the points with Carolina here, especially with Brees going for a record. Coach Payton will be calling deep pass plays repeatedly in all likelihood. Very, very scary underdog to bet against.

 

[TheGuarantee]

Kind of like the Saints as well, plus

-300 +200
-150 -100

Saints lose you save yourself 150....Saints win you cost yourself 300...basically 1/2 like the ML and now you are guaranteeing yourself a loss...unless you absolutely can't afford to take a 300 dollar hit letting it ride is the play.

 

[ca$hmoney]

First of all...Atlanta isn't going to lose this week.

2nd...you don't want a situation that you lose either 150 or 100.


I would just let it ride...

Atlanta won't lose, your right. They have a shot at a division title and are playing at the same time Carolina plays the Saints.

While I don't want to lose money, I want to be smart and minimize my loses.

 

[ca$hmoney]

Total nonsense. Saints are nearly invincible at home. The Saints have outgained NFL foes 411-330 ypg on the season and are the 6th best team in the league according to my database. They have lost a number of close games to miss the playoffs, but a number of their wins have been blowouts.

This is a playoff caliber team that just didn't catch enough breaks in the close games to earn a playoff spot, but they are a much better team than some of the squads that will be headed to the playoffs (Arizona, SD, to name a few). With nothing to play for here, the Saints can play relaxed, pressure free football against a team that "needs" to win for a first round bye.

I'd be surprised if the Saints lose this game. They have a lot going for them here and they can gamble all they like to get the win and we all know that Coach Sean Payton is a big time risk taker. I would be absolutely terrified of laying the points with Carolina here, especially with Brees going for a record. Coach Payton will be calling deep pass plays repeatedly in all likelihood. Very, very scary underdog to bet against.

While the Saints may play hard, I see them losing a close one. Brees may come to play but how can the coaching staff get each and every player to show up and play at a playoff level. Carolina does not want to lose a forst round bye and playing at home until the NFC Championship at minimum.

 

[nd2000]

While the Saints may play hard, I see them losing a close one. Brees may come to play but how can the coaching staff get each and every player to show up and play at a playoff level. Carolina does not want to lose a forst round bye and playing at home until the NFC Championship at minimum.

You obviously have not been paying attention to what has been going on recently. All these teams that "need" to win have been pathetic ATS. Why? 1. The lines are inflated against them because the common perception is that since they "have" to win they will try extra hard. 2. The team that does not have to win can play relaxed, aggressive football with nothing to lose. I don't know about you, but i would much rather back the relaxed, aggressive team as opposed to the uptight team that is desperate for a win.

 

[ca$hmoney]

You obviously have not been paying attention to what has been going on recently. All these teams that "need" to win have been pathetic ATS. Why? 1. The lines are inflated against them because the common perception is that since they "have" to win they will try extra hard. 2. The team that does not have to win can play relaxed, aggressive football with nothing to lose. I don't know about you, but i would much rather back the relaxed, aggressive team as opposed to the uptight team that is desperate for a win.

I agree but this is with only decent teams having to win to keep their playoff hopes alive i.e. Philly. Now we're talking about a top tier team. Top teir teams step it up and get the job done.