REG: CINCINNATI -2.5 / SOUTH FLORIDA
What I'm about to show you is common information, but usually falls on deaf ears most of the time. Most of you never talk about injuries on this site, and imho, injuries happen to be the single most X-Factor in any matchup period. That includes the NBA as well.
Games with Injuries are most of the time my best bet plays, but you need to know how they work first. Tonight S.Florida's starting guard Jesus Verdejo who is the teams 2nd leading scorer (13.3 PPG.) is out, but why is the line falling for the Bearcats? Shouldn't it be increasing? Well, it did during the day to 3.5
This was the first influx of money that your book was stealing from you. Then when it fell to 2.5, that was all the confirmation that the rest of you needed! Like "wow, S.Fla is going to be missing 13 pts and I can get Cincy @ 2.5?" Do you see how this works? So look for lines with a major injury and a favorite's line falling by a 1/2 pt. This is one of the reasons why I don't buy fav lines that end in a 1/2 pt.
Next look for "Probables." These are your typical disrespect lines. Whenever you see a starter that is "probable" and the favorite's line is increasing?...that's your ticket to financial freedom! That's your book telling you that his being available isn't viable enough to make a difference in the game. This is a mind game they play with the average gambler.
The reverse also works. Take a look at Dukes line tonight. It went from 11.5 to 12.5 even though starting guard Nolan Smith has been labled "out." That is total disrespect to in the face of FSU! No way Krzyzewski's brats cover this line tonight! Also keep an eye on Toronto's Shawn Marion. He's also "probable" but yet Houston's line is increasing from 8.5 to 9.
Also in the NBA, Memphis' Rudy Gay is also probable, but you wont see the Lakers line increase tonight because they are going to blow them out of the Staples Arena! Notice Orlando's line hasn't budged from -7 even though Phoenix's Nash and Grant Hill are "probable?" That's because the Magic will also cover if the line doesn't increase. Look for the Houston line to move back fro -9 to -8.5 because I think the Rockets cover tonight.
What I'm about to show you is common information, but usually falls on deaf ears most of the time. Most of you never talk about injuries on this site, and imho, injuries happen to be the single most X-Factor in any matchup period. That includes the NBA as well.
Games with Injuries are most of the time my best bet plays, but you need to know how they work first. Tonight S.Florida's starting guard Jesus Verdejo who is the teams 2nd leading scorer (13.3 PPG.) is out, but why is the line falling for the Bearcats? Shouldn't it be increasing? Well, it did during the day to 3.5
This was the first influx of money that your book was stealing from you. Then when it fell to 2.5, that was all the confirmation that the rest of you needed! Like "wow, S.Fla is going to be missing 13 pts and I can get Cincy @ 2.5?" Do you see how this works? So look for lines with a major injury and a favorite's line falling by a 1/2 pt. This is one of the reasons why I don't buy fav lines that end in a 1/2 pt.
Next look for "Probables." These are your typical disrespect lines. Whenever you see a starter that is "probable" and the favorite's line is increasing?...that's your ticket to financial freedom! That's your book telling you that his being available isn't viable enough to make a difference in the game. This is a mind game they play with the average gambler.
The reverse also works. Take a look at Dukes line tonight. It went from 11.5 to 12.5 even though starting guard Nolan Smith has been labled "out." That is total disrespect to in the face of FSU! No way Krzyzewski's brats cover this line tonight! Also keep an eye on Toronto's Shawn Marion. He's also "probable" but yet Houston's line is increasing from 8.5 to 9.
Also in the NBA, Memphis' Rudy Gay is also probable, but you wont see the Lakers line increase tonight because they are going to blow them out of the Staples Arena! Notice Orlando's line hasn't budged from -7 even though Phoenix's Nash and Grant Hill are "probable?" That's because the Magic will also cover if the line doesn't increase. Look for the Houston line to move back fro -9 to -8.5 because I think the Rockets cover tonight.
