I don't have time to post on a regular basis but I spend allot of time tracking NBA data. Some of you may know I am a rocket scientist and I am good at analyzing data. I am convinced of all of the sports that NBA totals are the most beatable sport and here is why.
Baseball: the parks themselves are different and pitching varies by day and is the single biggest factor in the outcome
Football: field size is the same every game but I think coaching has the biggest effect on the outcome. Coaching changes how the teams play and coaches in the nfl are changed often....the season are a small sample only 16 games so finding a good true predictor is difficult. Example look at the Vikings defense last year compared to this year...basically the same players....just a new coach.
Hockey: I don't study much. Rinks vary in size, on the positive there is a large sample size each season, the downside is the small totals numbers 5, 5.5 or 6 typically.
College basketball players turnover too fast.
Basketball has allot of positives. The floor size is a standard, there are allot of games each season, the total you are trying to beat is a large number like 200 so in general one single event in the course of a game doesn't generally effect the outcome (fluke goal, tipped passed or a throwing error).
I have a program that allows me to look at a total in four different methods. I look for at least two of the methods to agree with no disagreement. I also look at if they game plays out like how I think it will.......then which team is going to also cover the spread.
Yesterday I had the highest possible play a 4 unit on Dallas Under the total (all four methods pointed to the under). It also indicated that Dallas would cover the spread. Both were correct. Yesterday there was also a 2 unit play on New Orleans Over the total. It also indicated that Utah would cover too. Once again both right. Doesn't always work this way.
Today the program has a 3 unit on Clippers over the total. It also points to Indiana covering the spread.
On another note I study other factors that I think could be used as a predictor of the total. I have one theory that I have been playing with on and off for a period of time and I think it has some merit and could be eventually added to my program. Most of the games on the board it only basically encourages you to avoid playing an over or under. For example over the last 1000 games it might show 54% of the games in this category went under. 54% is not enough to make me play the under but I would not want to swim upstream and play the over in a game like this. With that said there is one category that doesn't come up very often but when it does I think it is worth playing. Over the last 4 years it has hit over 70%. Tonight it is saying play the Under in Denver/Houston game.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Baseball: the parks themselves are different and pitching varies by day and is the single biggest factor in the outcome
Football: field size is the same every game but I think coaching has the biggest effect on the outcome. Coaching changes how the teams play and coaches in the nfl are changed often....the season are a small sample only 16 games so finding a good true predictor is difficult. Example look at the Vikings defense last year compared to this year...basically the same players....just a new coach.
Hockey: I don't study much. Rinks vary in size, on the positive there is a large sample size each season, the downside is the small totals numbers 5, 5.5 or 6 typically.
College basketball players turnover too fast.
Basketball has allot of positives. The floor size is a standard, there are allot of games each season, the total you are trying to beat is a large number like 200 so in general one single event in the course of a game doesn't generally effect the outcome (fluke goal, tipped passed or a throwing error).
I have a program that allows me to look at a total in four different methods. I look for at least two of the methods to agree with no disagreement. I also look at if they game plays out like how I think it will.......then which team is going to also cover the spread.
Yesterday I had the highest possible play a 4 unit on Dallas Under the total (all four methods pointed to the under). It also indicated that Dallas would cover the spread. Both were correct. Yesterday there was also a 2 unit play on New Orleans Over the total. It also indicated that Utah would cover too. Once again both right. Doesn't always work this way.
Today the program has a 3 unit on Clippers over the total. It also points to Indiana covering the spread.
On another note I study other factors that I think could be used as a predictor of the total. I have one theory that I have been playing with on and off for a period of time and I think it has some merit and could be eventually added to my program. Most of the games on the board it only basically encourages you to avoid playing an over or under. For example over the last 1000 games it might show 54% of the games in this category went under. 54% is not enough to make me play the under but I would not want to swim upstream and play the over in a game like this. With that said there is one category that doesn't come up very often but when it does I think it is worth playing. Over the last 4 years it has hit over 70%. Tonight it is saying play the Under in Denver/Houston game.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
hno:
