I think its going to come down to which QB makes the most mistakes. Its hard to bet on a rookie on the road against a great defense. The rookie on the road factor IMO, is only applicable when facing a great defense.
When I was a playing ball as a sophomore at Umass, we were playing delaware in a close game, and Joe forced alot of passes because their running game was non-exsistant. Every year, we had to watch so much god damn film on him. Once thing we did was press their recievers almost every play. That seemed to work in the fact of him forcing it!! Maybe hell force a few to many this game, I cant see their running game doing anything this game either.. Im on the titans!